Colombia's path to peace?

We’re not big fans of hyperbole here and, thankfully, most Colombians appear to be that way too. 

Hence the somewhat indifferent reaction from many locals to the official revelation of what has been one of the worst-kept secrets in recent Colombian politics: President Juan Manuel Santos’s government has had preliminary discussions with the country’s long-standing left-wing guerrillas, Farc.*

El Presidente: Can he really make peace with the Farc?

Depending on whom you speak to, this indifference to the news verges on the slightly optimistic to the pessimistic. One thing’s for sure, you’ll be hard-pressed to find anybody overjoyed that ‘proper, full-scale’ peace talks are in the offing. 

It’s all down to reconciliation weariness really – Colombia has been here before on many occasions. The fact that the Farc is still involved in bombings and kidnappings tells you just how successful those previous attempts at fostering peace went down.

So what, if anything, has changed this time around? Well, of course, there’s a different administration in place intent on ‘learning from the errors of the past’. It’s the very least President Santos and his team could try. He certainly is saying the right things in this regard. 

He made it clear in his state broadcast that the country’s military would remain in 'every centimetre of national territory'. That was an obvious reference to the failed strategy of former President Andrés Pastrana who, in 1999, demilitarised a vast zone in the south of the country to facilitate peace talks with the rebels. 

While negotiations did take place, this buffer zone allowed the Farc to rebuild, recruit and reinforce itself in relative comfort. The legacy of this is still being felt today as it is in this area that the group remains at its strongest.

Now, while Farc may still have strength in its unofficial safe zones, generally speaking it would appear to be at the weakest point in its history. 

It has suffered key military setbacks against the state’s armed forces in the last few years with the recent upsurge in its attacks seen by some as the desperate last kicks of a cornered beast. Sitting down with the government could be its best option right now. Time will tell how sincere the group is about the whole process.

'The Path to Peace': Far from straightforward.

However, as in any peace talks, one must ask the question, can an essential balance be found that would be key to any potential lasting settlement? 

From this remove, it would appear that the government – and, by extension, the vast majority of the country’s inhabitants – has far more to gain. Obviously, if Farc agrees to lay down its weapons and cease attacks that’s good news for all who want peace. 

For Santos, if things go that well so soon, it should do his faltering approval rating no end of good, helping him in his quest for re-election in 2014. 

Peace negotiations have been part of his manifesto – quite apart from his predecessor, the hard-line right-winger Álvaro Uribe who has been very vociferous in his opposition to talking with ‘terrorists’, attacking the current administration’s policy at every opportunity.

A military-defunct Farc is clearly the very least the Colombian government and the majority of the country’s electorate will look for in any agreement. 

In such a scenario, the Farc, in some form, would surely look for political legitimacy and perhaps immunity from prosecution for some or all of its top members. This is looking at it from a political-conflict point of view.

Yet, the days of this struggle being purely about political ideology – if they ever were – are long gone. There is a far more powerful agent at play and it is this that is at the crux of the issue here: the control of the drugs trade. 

For Farc to go legit and allow unrestricted official access to its white-gold territories will be the equivalent of signing its own death warrant – mainstream political presence or not. 

While we might know what comes out of the depths of Colombia’s jungles, what actually happens inside them and exactly where remains about as mysterious as the inner workings of a rugby scrum. And for those working in the illegal drugs trade, that’s the way they want it to remain.

The 'white gold' in its ore form, the coca leaf.

It has been mentioned on these pages before that the current strategy by most elected governments, Colombia included, in tackling the narcotics underworld is not working (see ‘Dealing with the Dealers’: http://bit.ly/NXGLEl). 

Calls for a new front in this war, however, are gathering pace, not least in Latin America (Santos himself has spoken of the need for a new approach), a land that knows more about this issue than most. 

Take the illegal drugs trade out of subversives’ hands and their power and wealth are greatly reduced. In fact, for most underworld operators, their raison d’etre practically disappears.

So while there will be much focus on the political manoeuvring in the upcoming dialogue between the Colombian government and Farc (with the ELN, the country’s second-largest rebel group, indicating it also wants to be part of this process) the weight afforded to the drugs issue will be interesting to see.**

You can only ignore the white powdered elephant in the room for so long before it starts blowing in your face.

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* Farc stands for Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia or Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia in English.
** ELN stands for Ejército de Liberación Nacional or National Liberation Army in English.

For another article on a related theme, see: ‘Dangerous Colombia Part II’ http://bit.ly/OyCBRS