Location, location, location

In a recent episode of The Colombia Cast podcast, the eminent economist and political scientist James Robinson, co-author of the influential Why Nations Fail, restated his view that geography plays no part in the economic development of countries.

Location matters. (Image from Wikipedia.)

Looking at it from an Americas perspective from the time Europeans arrived on these shores, that Canada and the US are more advanced than their counterparts further south has a lot to do with pure chance initially, later followed by the systems of governance introduced.

Easy pickings

Basically, the Spanish found fairly advanced civilisations settled in areas rich in natural resources that could be relatively easily exploited for the homeland. The British, in contrast, had to deal with largely nomadic tribes inhabiting rather harsh conditions. 

One, oversimplified way to put it is that the Spanish found streets paved with gold to loot while the concept of a street didn't even exist where the British settlers landed.

'Climate certainly played a part.'

Had the roles been reversed would the state of what we now call Latin America be much better today? Would the US be the power it is? The answer to the latter question is probably not, based on how the Spanish Empire ran its affairs. 

As for the Brits in Latin America, well their own record in lands where a quick buck could be made is far from exemplary. Jamaica's not exactly a powerhouse now, is it?

In this regard, while geography per se wasn't the factor, one could say climate played an important part.

In terms of Jamaica and other Caribbean islands, it was their ability to produce an abundance of cheap sugar for the European market that made them ripe (pun intended) for exploitation. Thus, their location in the tropics was critical.

We must also consider the idea that the need to plan and prepare according to the seasons in regions where a harsh winter would see off those found wanting played some role in ingraining a more "organised" disposition in those living further north.

Speaking of those northern reaches, had Ireland not been located next to the greatest old-school empire the world has ever known (today's big boys, the US and China, are perhaps best measured in different terms) there's little doubt it would look much different today.

Nothing without EU

Of course, there are many interconnected factors that shape countries and regions. In Ireland's case, had it converted to Protestantism — or had Britain remained Catholic — the last few centuries would surely have been far less troublesome than they were.

'Ireland was a pedagogical powerhouse.'

While British interference in Irish affairs was a fact before the religious divide, it became fundamental for security for the emerging empire to control — at pretty much whatever cost — the untrustworthy neighbour to the west. (Do note that in the early days of Christianity in Europe, Ireland was known as the island of saints and scholars, a sort of godly, pedagogical powerhouse we could say. Subjugation by the British changed all that.)

Fast forward a few hundred years and, as I've written about before, a partially independent Ireland's proximity to mainland Europe, not to mention membership of the European Union, has been crucial in its economic development.

Imagine if Ireland, everything else being equal, had been an island just off Africa. How would it look economically and politically today? One just needs to take a glance at the countries in the Dark Continent post-colonisation to get an idea.

Weighing all this up, while there are many reasons why nations 'fail', your neighbours can play a significant part. Location does matter, at least in those vital formative years.
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Listen to The Colombia Cast podcast here.
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Trump: Better the devil you know for the US?

As much as some may wish it wasn't so, the person — nay man as it has been and looks set to be for at least another four years — calling the shots in the White House exerts global significance.

Trump: As the opposition dithers, he looks set to win four more years. (Photo from Facebook.)

So while there will be those outside the USA, and even a small number inside, who will plead indifference to this year's presidential election, the winner is sure to have some sort of influence on their and all of our lives, whether we like it or not

'Trump hasn't started World War III. Not yet anyway.'

Now, at the risk of being a bit premature here considering events of the past week and the fact there's the best part of a year still to run on the incumbent's term, we can say, thankfully and as predicted before he was elected, that Donald J. Trump hasn't started World War III nor turned his country into a Fascist dictatorship.

Making America heard again

What he has done is brought back that US bravado, or cockiness if you will, making it seen and heard again both at home and abroad. 

This isn't to say it's been all gung-ho, trigger-happy stuff in a classical American Wild West style. No. He's used the carrot-and-stick approach in dealing with his nation's most threatening challenger to world supremacy, China. Ditto with North Korea, more or less.

The stick has been used more so with Iran of late as we've seen to deadly effect, although it can be argued with some justification (how much the assassination of Qasem Soleimani will impact things domestically in the US in November is difficult to say at this remove). What he has failed to do is come good on his promise to reduce US troop numbers in the Middle East.

That latter negative notwithstanding, with an economy in fairly rude health by all accounts, coupled with low employment, a good number of his fellow citizens feel he has done enough to warrant those coveted four more years. 'Far worse presidents were re-elected' is what his supporters will tell you. 'Just look at the previous commander-in-chief, Barack Obama.'

For liberal Europeans, that's a hard one to stomach. Obama was their darling, the old-world style president that had been long overdue for the New World.

'The Democrats have left the country.'

The US under Obama for Europe was like seeing your old friend going out with someone who seemed a really decent, salt-of-the-earth type chap after having a few roguish partners. He wasn't the stereotypical loud, in-your-face guy we'd seen before. 

Alas, she reverted to type and then some when Trump won her over. 'We'll just never understand that young and reckless, yet alluring, US, will we?'

'Do something, Democrats'

A big reason why Trump looks set for re-election, putting to one side a highly unlikely impeachment, is to do with the opposition.

As Ronald Reagan reputedly once put it, 'the Democrats have gone so far left they've left the country.' And just like it has been in Colombia, being associated with anything close to the far left in the United States of America is pretty much toxic at election time.

OK, numbers-wise, thanks to the population concentrations on the east and west coasts, whoever finally appears on the Democratic ticket might actually, just as in 2016, win the popular vote. (One must also take into account the anti-Trump echo chambers reverberating around these more liberal sides to America. Their words tend to find more favour with non-Americans than those living in the 50 states.)

Lies of the land

This isn't, however, how the system works to get the keys to the White House. The electoral college vote should once again get Trump over the line.

I must say that if I ever got the chance to meet the current president, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be able to stomach him for any length. I certainly wouldn't be at ease in his company in any case. He is, after all, a serial liar. The man who gave us #FakeNews regularly says things that are clearly untrue.

The thing is, those who are doing their damnedest to get him out of office are also blurring the lines between fact and fiction. Truth being the first casualty of war and all that.

In one sense, November's presidential election is similar to what the UK electorate faced in December 2019: What's the least-bad option? The devil you know or the one you don't? 

With an opposition that raises more questions beforehand than answers, Trump is looking like the "safest" bet for US voters, as abhorrent as that is for many on the outside looking in.
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Listen to The Colombia Cast podcast here.
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