The Colombian compromise

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

'There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.'

That famous observation, attributed, rightly or wrongly, to Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov — better known as Lenin to most of us — has been used to describe many situations over the years.

Lame ducks: President Iván Duque & Vice President Marta Lucía Ramírez. (Photo from presidencia.gov.co.)

Plus ça change

Some might be tempted to apply it to what's been happening in Colombia of late.

The truth of it is, however, that despite the ongoing protests — linked, it must be remembered, to a movement that started on 27 November 2019, so not quite a matter of just a few weeks — nothing much has changed in the country, the pandemic effects excepted.

Indeed, so far the protesters' main achievements have been to stop things from happening. No to the proposed tax and health reforms, no to the co-hosting of the Copa América.

What's more, calls for police and military reform have been heard from Colombians since before the new constitution of 1991. Like that of the perennial tax-reform debate that only ever really trims around the edges at best, we're still waiting.

While there does appear to be broad agreement that there's something more lasting to the current protests, that those taking to the streets won't go away without concrete commitments to change, in a country that, officially speaking, displays a deep respect for "due process" through the courts, rapid, radical overhauls are most unlikely.

'There is a Colombian tradition of finding a workable solution to an impasse without completely ripping up the script.'

Of course, in a number of respects, this is a good thing. Throwing away the existing rule book when it's not at all clear what would follow could go disastrously wrong. Nonetheless, there are many who say, justifiably, that that existing rule book only really serves the interests of a comfortable minority.

'Hay un camino'

That being said, there is a Colombian tradition of finding a workable solution to an impasse without completely ripping up the script. The Colombian compromise we could call it. (One could argue that the new constitution of 1991 was the wrong solution at the right time, change for change's sake.)

I've experienced this compromise for day-to-day affairs while there are also "grander" historical examples (the Frente Nacional, to name but one). It might require a questionable interpretation of the rules or the turning of a blind eye but the idea is that all parties walk away feeling they've achieved something.

For now, for the current bungling administration headed by President Iván Duque, the hope must be that it can tap into that old Colombian trait. As Venezuela's former presidential candidate Henrique Caprile's campaign slogan went, 'Hay un camino', there is a way (alas, for him, he's still looking for that 'way').

It's both a blessing and a curse for Duque that his term ends in just over a year, August 2022. The blessing, in theory anyway, is that he can be more flexible in ceding to various demands safe in the knowledge that they'll get tied up in Colombia's Byzantine bureaucracy. In that scenario, when he leaves office, he could say: 'Hey, I did try in the end. It's out of my hands now.'

The curse is that it appears the majority of Colombians wish he wasn't president. There is zero trust in him in many quarters.

Furthermore, the unspectacular but largely positive change Colombia has experienced over the last couple of decades has now, understandably, only led to a desire for greater, quicker change amongst its younger citizens.

They know what they want — in a general sense in any case — and they want it now, in a number of weeks, not in a decade or two.

Step forward the Colombian compromise.
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The quieter side of Bogotá

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

For somebody who likes to get away from the hustle and bustle of city life, to discover new, more tranquil settings, having not left the greater environs of Bogotá for over 15 months has been far from ideal.

Beautiful Bogotá: At least from these vantage points!

Indeed, how I haven't completely cracked up is perhaps puzzling (although some will say I have, at least on occasions).

Blissful Bogotá

Part of the secret in keeping me relatively sane — outside of moving house regularly — has been my making the most of the spots of serenity Bogotá does have available.

Most will find that statement a paradox: spots of serenity in Bogotá? Well, they do exist.

The first of those that became my retreat in the middle of 2020 is the area behind the rough-and-ready barrio of El Codito.

While many would advise against a non-resident walking up through El Codito, I haven't had any issues traversing its many steep, narrow steps. This is part of the attraction, the pumping of the legs needed to get beyond the bustling barrio and into loftier, quieter territory. I'm not fully certain of the altitude at the higher points but I'd wager they reach about 3000 metres-above-sea-level, 400 metres above the Bogotá mean.

That settlement behind El Codito, taking the 185th Street to the turn-off for La Capilla and beyond — actually officially leaving Bogotá and crossing into the municipality of La Calera — gives you a sense of being in the countryside yet with a sprawling metropolis in full view.

It's not completely serene. There's always the chance of an aggressive dog or two spoiling the walk but at least the air feels fresher with more greenery about than in the grey, uninspiring concrete jungle below.

There is also a pleasant trek from La Capilla, along the mountain ridge, to Santa Cecilia, the hillside barrio with brightly painted houses that, when viewed from a distance, collectively resemble a butterfly.

'There's even a generously branched tree or two enticing one to climb. I felt like a child again!'

I only walked that route once, on a relatively busy Sunday. Why I haven't returned is largely down to the fact that I've been told it's a "popular" spot for thieves. A lone wanderer would be a bit exposed and isolated in the event of an unwanted encounter. Oh well, nothing's perfect.

''Cerro" distraction

There are no such concerns on the direct opposite side to El Codito and Santa Cecilia, namely Cerro de la Conejera on Bogotá's north-western limits.

This is the hill that meets you when you take the partially closed-to-traffic 183rd Street to its conclusion. The fact that it's home to the Antares Naval Club probably plays a part in keeping it free from "undesirables".

The gentle climb up the road to the club's entrance is popular with cyclists, offering a nice workout as it does. I'm guessing it's at least a 200-metre ascent.

The best bit, though, about this hill is going off-road, where the cyclists can't really go. About 100 metres before the club gates, there's a path into the woods. This breaks up into various interconnected trails. A ten-to-fifteen-minute wander in and you'll get views of the flat land leading to the town of Cota further west, tucked away in the foothills of another mountain range. To the north, you can see Chía.

There's even a generously branched tree or two enticing one to climb. I felt like a child again! When the sun shines, there are a few uncovered spots that catch the rays, allowing for some tanning/burning should one be that way inclined.

I've done this walk on two occasions thus far and each time I met nobody — I was completely on my own. Not even a canine — crazy or otherwise — in sight, a rarity for Colombia.

Both times were Fridays, so it might be different at weekends, perhaps there are more people about then. I must wander up some Sunday to see what it's like — Sunday being the day when practically all of Bogotá tends to get out to do some form of exercise or activity.  

Whatever the case, I'm more than happy to have it to myself midweek. These little spots of serenity together with the never-dull barrio living help to keep one 'in the game', so to put it, in these strange, troubling times.
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Colombia: A system failure

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

The chaotic times Colombia is experiencing bring to mind just how inflexible a presidential system can be.

Back me or sack me

Faced with such a crisis in a parliamentary democracy, a motion of no confidence would most likely be tabled against the prime minister. 

If there was enough dissent in government ranks, the ruling party could lose such a vote. That would trigger, barring a new arrangement amongst the parties in parliament to choose a new premier, an election.

Widespread protests are ongoing in Colombia.

Either that or the prime minister, in a put-up-or-shut-up cry to the electorate, could call an election of his/her own accord. (In the Irish system, this would need to be signed off on by the largely ceremonial president, something that is normally just a matter of course.)

Think of Boris Johnson's sweeping victory in the UK's December 2019 general election. Having won the support of his party to take over as PM from Theresa May with a more hard-line Brexit position, he put it all on the line and went to the country in a bid to strengthen his mandate. 

It worked, quite stunningly. The many loud, influential voices against the Conservative leader had to grudgingly accept that the British electorate backed Boris.

Of the various demands from Colombia's protesters, some are calling for the resignation of President Iván Duque. As I mentioned in my previous post, with an election for a new head of state just 12 months away, it's unlikely in the extreme that this will happen.

However, I wonder if Duque right now wishes he was a prime minister in a parliamentary system where he could call a snap election. 

It would certainly put to the test the belief, particularly seen in international media, that the current protests are widely supported. (I must add, while Duque's own popularity appears on the floor, his party, Centro Democrático, still has a solid support base. If we can call the Centro Democrático the party in power, the opposition is far from united — it's quite a mixed bag.)

My take on it, from my humble estrato dos abode in the far north of Bogotá, is a little more nuanced.

Of course the many struggling to make ends meet want to see their lot improve. Don't we all? The killing of innocent protesters by state forces is also wholly unacceptable. Most Colombians would appear to agree that some sort of police reform is badly needed.

However, as I've written oft-times before, the more radical, mostly younger forces that appear to make up the majority of the protesters aren't exactly lovingly embraced by your average barrio-popular resident.

Unsurprisingly, there is a certain arrogance amongst the leftist, university-attending protesters towards those not of their ilk. 'The uneducated idiots don't know what's good for them' is a regular refrain.

'Is it a case that the majority of Colombians feel they're somewhere in the middle and relatively content with that?'

It's a standard line of attack by those on the left. It rarely works. In fact, it's often counterproductive.

Who are these "educated" folk to say that the construction worker or housecleaner doesn't know what he/she wants?

Colombians don't have to look too far to find an example of what can go horribly wrong when a country takes a hard turn to the left based on promises to end corruption and bring about a better life for all. Venezuela, anyone?

OK, some of you will say I'm being dramatic here. That what the protesters are really calling for is simply a fairer system, a reduction in inequality, not a version of Hugo Chávez Frías' socialism for the 21st century.

The price of fairness

In terms of some of the standout demands on the protesters' list — a guaranteed one month's minimum wage for those officially living in poverty and no university tuition fees — it's true that we're not talking about unrealistic proposals when viewed from an international perspective. 

In fact, President Duque has already announced the introduction of free, temporary for the moment albeit, public higher education for students from the lowest three strata (for a brief introduction to the strata system, see https://wwcorrigan.blogspot.com/2014/10/end-of-strata-republic.html).

All such measures, to state the obvious, must be paid for somehow. In Ireland, my home country, a relatively generous social welfare system and "free" third-level education for undergraduates is financed by redistributing wealth through what one might call "progressive" taxes. 

There are always the complaints that the richest in society aren't contributing enough and, on the other extreme, some people are just scrounging off the state.

Colombia, I'm guessing, would have to do something similar in terms of taxation. What might worry some who consider themselves to be just making ends meet, however, is that they would be asked to contribute more than they currently are to fund an expanded social welfare state. In other words, in a Colombian context, they're not as poor as they think they are.

In a country where informal, unregulated employment and illegality — officially uncontrolled and outlawed by the state but unofficially approved — are commonplace and "suffice" for many involved in such activities, rocking the system is a risk they are reluctant to take.

It remains to be seen if the proposals to significantly expand Colombia's welfare state make any real headway. By their very nature, they would require more government control in a country where there is much mistrust of state institutions. Colombia, do remember, tends to move to a conservative, raw-capitalist beat.

Without completely tearing down the house, in common with the social-democratic countries in Northern Europe, those looking for wholesale changes might find that a parliamentary system is the best vehicle to implement them.

They might also find, though, that they haven't as much support as they may believe they have.

No system is perfect. Each one has its losers and winners. Is it a case that the majority of Colombians feel they're somewhere in the middle and relatively content with that? 

On the other hand, there is the nothing-ventured-nothing-gained argument. Deciphering the amount of change needed, or not as the case may be, is a delicate balance.

Future elections, the candidates that go forward and the manifestos they present will give us some indication of where 'el pueblo colombiano' stands on all this.
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Colombia, between a rock and a hard place

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

'Hey Johnny, what are you rebelling against?'
'Whaddaya got?'
 
Some of you will recognise those lines from a classic scene in the 1953 US crime film The Wild One, with Marlon Brando playing protagonist Johnny Strabler. It was parodied, for those of us of a much younger age, some 40 years later in The Simpsons by Lisa (taking Johnny's role) and Principal Skinner.

Protesters block Bogotá's Autopista Norte.

A taxing issue

Not wanting to make light of the very real issues at the heart of the latest wave of protests in Colombia, in some ways it seems as if the protesters are against pretty much anything the state represents. One could say, much rhetoric, little real detail.

The spark that led to this so-called Paro Nacional, National Strike, was the controversial tax reform proposals. While many other grievances were highlighted by the various organisations officially behind the mobilisation that started on 28 April, it seems unlikely that the movement would have garnered as much support if it hadn't been for these mooted tax changes. (It must be said, the numbers protesting in recent days aren't massive by any means but they are causing widespread disruption via roadblocks, damage to public transport and such like.)

Across the class spectrum, there was widespread anger at the Ministry of Finance's proposals. It matters little whether this anger has been justified or not. The narrative was set that the government was looking to take more than was fair from the middle and lower classes to increase its revenues, something it badly needs to do.

For one, looking to widen the income tax base, as these proposals did, doesn't seem too unreasonable in a country where a small percentage of the population actually contributes in this way. Nonetheless, when state politicians earn about 30 times the national minimum wage and there's a belief that corruption is commonplace among the controlling classes and wealthier folk, asking the masses to fork out more in such a blatant manner was always going to be met with resistance.

'Taking it as a given that it's Colombia's centre-left/left behind most of this, if there was a presidential election next week, one would be taking a significant gamble betting on politicians from that side of the spectrum to be poll toppers.'

In the end, President Iván Duque's administration capitulated. The Finance Minister resigned and the tax reform proposals have been binned. They'll be back in some form again as the country must find ways to raise revenues (or cut spending) — my podcast interview from last year with the renowned economist Leopoldo Fergusson gives a good overview of the situation together with some considered ideas of what could be done.

So with the tax reform proposals shelved, the minister responsible sent packing and President Duque promising an inclusive national dialogue, why have the protests continued? (They are into day nine as I write.)

Police state

The biggest reason is the response of state security forces. Depending on whose figures you believe, we've had either over 20 protest-related deaths or over 30. Culpability for the majority of these has been laid squarely at the police and individuals acting on their behalf. In this age where social media dominates the discourse, deciphering fact from fiction is difficult, to say the least.

All this follows on from previous protest fatalities, the most recent spate occurring in Bogotá in September 2020 when violence erupted after the death at the hands of police of Javier Ordóñez, something I wrote about at the time.

This time around it's the south-western city of Cali that has borne the brunt of killings and violence, although all major urban centres in the country have seen some level of violent disturbances.

Thus, protesters' ire is yet again directed at police brutality. Each morning since 28 April we've woken up to news of another killing allegedly at the hands of state forces. As long as that continues, the chances of the protests petering out, as has happened previously, seem low.

The official organisers of the National Strike are scheduled to meet with government officials in the coming days. Whether this will result in an easing of tensions remains to be seen.

How much the various workers' unions are actually in control of the movement at this stage is highly debatable.

For many of the younger protesters, it would seem that nothing short of President Duque's resignation will placate them. That is extremely unlikely to happen. We are, after all, just a year away from a presidential election.

What's more, as alluded to above, the extent to which those protesting represent the majority of public opinion is difficult to measure. Taking it as a given that it's Colombia's centre-left/left behind most of this, if there was a presidential election next week, one would be taking a significant gamble betting on politicians from that side of the spectrum to be poll toppers.

While the more "visible" problem of police brutality is now driving the protests, the broader issue here is — and always has been — inequality in all its manifestations. For that, there is no quick-fix solution.

Of course, this doesn't mean that decision-makers just shrug their shoulders and say 'it is what it is.' The goal of achieving a more equal society has to start somewhere. One of those places, it can be argued, is with a fairer redistribution of wealth, i.e. tax reform and the like. Ring a bell?

In the same way, referring back to our opening lines, rebelling against everything with little rhyme or reason to proceedings is unlikely to lead to a glorious revolution.

Go ahead, tear down the structures and start again. To do that, one has to be prepared to shoulder the cost of reconstruction.
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The case against covid vaccine passports

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

In a recent episode of the UK-based Spectator TV, Adam Ritchie, Senior Project Manager in vaccine development at Oxford University's Jenner Institute, was asked how ethical it was for the UK and other high-income countries to be giving covid-19 vaccines to those less vulnerable to severe infection while at-risk groups in places such as India faced a long wait for a potentially life-saving jab.

Will the covid-19 jab be added to the International Certificate of Vaccinations booklet?

A jab for life

Considering the Jenner Institute works primarily on diseases that predominantly affect low- to middle-income countries Ritchie responded by saying, unsurprisingly, that he did, in a personal capacity, have some reservations about this.

On a similar theme, earlier this year I wrote about my indifference to be vaccinated, largely based on the assumption that I am in the low-risk category for covid. Subsequent events — being in close and enclosed company of people who, it transpired, had the virus at the time we were together — have made me feel, perhaps wrongly, that I may even be in a lower-than-low-risk bracket. (I am available for medical trials, if the price is right.)

When I published that vaccine article, one big unknown was whether or not inoculation helped reduce transmission.

Ironically enough, on the very day I uploaded the blog piece, preliminary studies were released that suggested the jab does indeed slow the rate of infection. This now seems to be largely accepted. (Do note, however, UK infection rates fell dramatically in the summer of 2020 which suggests that there are many factors at play in terms of contagion.)

This positive vaccine performance being so, the case against getting one is weakened somewhat. Somewhat that is.

There are still not-insignificant reasons why I and many others with similar profiles shouldn't be in a rush to get a vaccine.

For starters, we have that moral issue mentioned above. Is it right that somebody who appears immune and/or already has self-produced defences to covid is given a jab before a highly vulnerable person receives his/her shot?

(Now I know many of you would love for Wrong Way to live forever, but covid is far from the biggest threat to my and many others' existence right now. You must protect me from graver concerns if you want me to stick around for a long time to come.)

'If it is considered immoral for some people to get jabbed right now and even for a few years to come, then how can proof of vaccination in order to travel or whatever be seen as fair?'

Alongside this, owing to the nature of coronavirus, even those already vaccinated in high-risk groups will most likely need a booster dose before my first "turn" comes up — I refer to my turn as stipulated by Colombia's five-stage vaccine rollout programme.

For example, my 77-year-old father received his vaccine in March. To stay sufficiently protected, it's most likely he'll need at least one more jab inside the next year.

Immune to clear thinking

Globally speaking, we're far from having enough doses for all. Thus, for now, the focus should be on getting what we do have to those in greater need, wherever they may be.

Then there's the potential immunity issue. Do I and others like me even need a vaccine for something that doesn't appear to present any real risk to us? We've already seen during this pandemic the many problems that arise when treating the population as a homogeneous unit (do recall those worst-case-scenario models that saw much of the world scramble for the panic button and abandon all proper reasoning).

So taking all that into account, the idea of compulsory covid vaccine passports can also be seen as unethical. If one considers it immoral for some people to get jabbed right now and perhaps for a few years to come, then how on earth can proof of vaccination in order to travel or whatever be seen as fair?

What's more, it will hit the already squeezed under-40s disproportionately, just adding to the hardship brought about by the highly questionable coronavirus-containment measures. The idea of reaching
retirement age with a pension to fall back on seems a long way off for many in that category right now.

In many ways, in these crazy coronavirus times, one can't be too surprised with such a blatant disregard for large sections of our population. Our esteemed leaders' inability to think in any way clearly has been one of the many crippling side effects of the pandemic.

All one can do is to continue to highlight the many inconsistencies in the world's covid-containment battle in the hope that some of those currently controlling our lives will come to their senses. Events of the last 14 months don't instil one with much confidence, however.

What we might need is a new, deadlier global crisis to come along to snap these leaders out of their covid monomania madness.  
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