Trump: Better the devil you know for the US?

As much as some may wish it wasn't so, the person — nay man as it has been and looks set to be for at least another four years — calling the shots in the White House exerts global significance.

Trump: As the opposition dithers, he looks set to win four more years. (Photo from Facebook.)

So while there will be those outside the USA, and even a small number inside, who will plead indifference to this year's presidential election, the winner is sure to have some sort of influence on their and all of our lives, whether we like it or not

'Trump hasn't started World War III. Not yet anyway.'

Now, at the risk of being a bit premature here considering events of the past week and the fact there's the best part of a year still to run on the incumbent's term, we can say, thankfully and as predicted before he was elected, that Donald J. Trump hasn't started World War III nor turned his country into a Fascist dictatorship.

Making America heard again

What he has done is brought back that US bravado, or cockiness if you will, making it seen and heard again both at home and abroad. 

This isn't to say it's been all gung-ho, trigger-happy stuff in a classical American Wild West style. No. He's used the carrot-and-stick approach in dealing with his nation's most threatening challenger to world supremacy, China. Ditto with North Korea, more or less.

The stick has been used more so with Iran of late as we've seen to deadly effect, although it can be argued with some justification (how much the assassination of Qasem Soleimani will impact things domestically in the US in November is difficult to say at this remove). What he has failed to do is come good on his promise to reduce US troop numbers in the Middle East.

That latter negative notwithstanding, with an economy in fairly rude health by all accounts, coupled with low employment, a good number of his fellow citizens feel he has done enough to warrant those coveted four more years. 'Far worse presidents were re-elected' is what his supporters will tell you. 'Just look at the previous commander-in-chief, Barack Obama.'

For liberal Europeans, that's a hard one to stomach. Obama was their darling, the old-world style president that had been long overdue for the New World.

'The Democrats have left the country.'

The US under Obama for Europe was like seeing your old friend going out with someone who seemed a really decent, salt-of-the-earth type chap after having a few roguish partners. He wasn't the stereotypical loud, in-your-face guy we'd seen before. 

Alas, she reverted to type and then some when Trump won her over. 'We'll just never understand that young and reckless, yet alluring, US, will we?'

'Do something, Democrats'

A big reason why Trump looks set for re-election, putting to one side a highly unlikely impeachment, is to do with the opposition.

As Ronald Reagan reputedly once put it, 'the Democrats have gone so far left they've left the country.' And just like it has been in Colombia, being associated with anything close to the far left in the United States of America is pretty much toxic at election time.

OK, numbers-wise, thanks to the population concentrations on the east and west coasts, whoever finally appears on the Democratic ticket might actually, just as in 2016, win the popular vote. (One must also take into account the anti-Trump echo chambers reverberating around these more liberal sides to America. Their words tend to find more favour with non-Americans than those living in the 50 states.)

Lies of the land

This isn't, however, how the system works to get the keys to the White House. The electoral college vote should once again get Trump over the line.

I must say that if I ever got the chance to meet the current president, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be able to stomach him for any length. I certainly wouldn't be at ease in his company in any case. He is, after all, a serial liar. The man who gave us #FakeNews regularly says things that are clearly untrue.

The thing is, those who are doing their damnedest to get him out of office are also blurring the lines between fact and fiction. Truth being the first casualty of war and all that.

In one sense, November's presidential election is similar to what the UK electorate faced in December 2019: What's the least-bad option? The devil you know or the one you don't? 

With an opposition that raises more questions beforehand than answers, Trump is looking like the "safest" bet for US voters, as abhorrent as that is for many on the outside looking in.
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On the road again, naturally

Ireland’s been on our minds here recently. Not in a fond way, but in that typical lamentable style that as a tribe we seem to have perfected. 

Distance and personal distractions had kept the homeland’s myriad of problems more or less out of our immediate thoughts. That changed though after a Skype chat with an old friend – another of the many Irish abroad – who informed us of an excellent article, Off to New York with the iPaddies on the Irish Times' ‘Generation Emigration’ blog. 

'Taking flight' - The Irish on the move en masse once more.

Cutting the Celtic Tiger's claws

Of course, the picture painted in that particular piece isn’t something that will shock many Irish people – considering what’s happened in the last few years, we’re pretty much shock-proof these days. 

What is worrying, though, particularly for us, the younger generation, is the way that people who experienced the pre-Celtic Tiger lean years, see the current situation as much, much worse. 

When you look at the context, however, the widely accepted fact that things will be as bad as ever for the Free State is pretty logical really. 

Before we look at that context, it must be said that politicians and others who were quick to take credit for our economic expansion cannot simply shun culpability for their part in aiding our dramatic collapse. In any case, their role in both events was superficial.

In simplified summation, the Republic’s ‘rise’ was an inevitable consequence of its largely unavoidable decision to open its doors to the free market. Had the state not done so, we risked becoming the Western equivalent of North Korea. 

So after years of economic isolation, we went from a subsistence existence to a country that could, relatively speaking, compete on the world stage. And we were, up until the late 1990s, an attractive place to do business for money-spinning multinationals. 

Wage demands were relatively low compared to other Western countries. We had agreeable tax rates and a laissez-faire political attitude to big business. 

Coupled with this, the availability of cheap money (at the time) from our European neighbours – a result of our decision to join the EU and later the European Monetary Union – meant we could push ahead with much-needed infrastructural development which thus provided massive employment in the construction sector, a natural phase for an emerging country to go through. 

Inevitably, though, with so much money flying about the country, everybody wanted a greater slice of the cake. So wage and welfare demands increased and we gradually became a less attractive place for outsiders to do business in.

Now, if you happen to be a country with vast natural resources that can survive without huge outside investment in a free-market world, then that’s fine. But we’re not. 

Thus, by becoming a more expensive place to do business, our clients looked elsewhere. And with the massive technological advancement in the last thirty years, the strategic importance that we once had as a ‘smart economy’, English-speaking nation on the threshold of the European market for US and other multinational companies became less relevant. 

Throw into the mix a global recession and the result is what we have today. All unavoidable really.

So what can be done? 

Well, as much as our ‘esteemed’ leaders try to tell us differently, emigration is one solution. It was said, apparently, that in the 1980s Ireland could only sustain one-in-every-two people born on the island. So if things are far worse now than compared to 30 years ago, as most say they are, then the current rapid flow of emigration must continue.

That aside, there are obviously still cosy jobs for some people in Ireland. It’s not all doom and gloom for a number who stay put. 

However, as a country where emigration is in our blood, many compatriots through the ages who had any ‘get up and go’ did just that and left. And for plenty of these, they realised potential in another land that they perhaps never would have if they had remained at home. 

While many Irish may be 'struggling', it's all relative.

On a slightly less serious note, alongside the suggestions we had in ‘South American Solutions to Irish Problems', another in the same category was given to us by a good friend. 

His ‘solution’ is to give those who remain in the state about one million euros to leave and when they have, plant the whole country. A cheaper option, he reckons, than trying to pay back our debts. And a ‘greener’ one at that. 

One thing worth remembering, though, is this. No matter how bad we think things are, there are people in other parts of the world who have it far worse. These are people who, if they manage to wake up in the morning, are not sure if they will survive the day. 

For the majority of Irish people, struggling as we may be, such a life-or-death scenario is something we don’t have to face.