Colombia decides: Imperfect peace or perpetual war?

In a country with such vast inequality, along with a significant disconnect between officialdom and the masses, to say Colombia's 'vote for peace' is its moment of truth might be overstretching it a little. 

 

Nonetheless, in the unlikely event of the Colombian electorate rejecting the 2 October plebiscite on the agreement reached between the government and Farc rebels, such an outcome would be met with bewilderment by a watching outside world; a people says no to peace. (Although, as written about here previously, it wouldn't be a complete surprise to those who have been following events closely.) 

It would also signal the need for a change of administration, one that would have to pursue a far tougher line on leftist guerrillas; not virgin, if largely unsuccessful ground that.

Much more peaceful times ahead for Colombia?  (Photo from Facebook.)

The opinion polls, in any case, tell us that the yes side should comfortably win the day, despite a not-insignificant no minority that appears to cross class boundaries. 

From well-to-do business people and professionals to tienda owners and hard-pressed youths in working-class barrios, in my conversations I've encountered more people who are going to vote no than yes. (Odd enough, considering the no side is polling at about 30 per cent.) 

 

I've also spoken with plenty who just won't bother to cast their ballot; a symbol of that disconnect from 'official' Colombia in what, according to the powers that be, is such a momentous decision for the country.

Leaving aside the argument that the referendum question is of a leading type favouring a yes, Colombians must ask themselves the following: Is this an agreement that will be a positive game changer for the country, a step in the right direction? 

Or is it just a coming together of a few elites, unrepresentative of the reality on the ground, and something that will change very little? A 'television peace' as one Colombian farmer put it.

You won't find many, even the most optimistic of yes voters, expecting instant change. Peace won't come overnight. We've seen that before in the likes of Northern Ireland — not that we can draw too many comparisons between the two conflicts.

Another argument from the no side is that the agreement is overly lenient towards Farc from a financial and political point of view — guaranteed senate seats for the leftist movement is one bugbear in this regard. 

 

For a country that has traditionally steered a centre-right/right path in national politics, there seems to be some fear that this deal might mark the start of a drift towards some sort of socialism, a dirty word in these parts considering the situation in neighbouring Venezuela, together with Colombia's sour relationship with that republic.

Another source of fuel for the 'no' ire comes from El Presidente himself, Juan Manuel Santos. His approval rating has been at an all-time low and it appears some Colombians just can't bear to endorse anything that he is behind. The wrong occasion for a protest vote it might be, but it carries weight.

Other points being made against the agreement include the belief that there are greater problems in the country that need to be sorted out. This may be so, but the counterargument is that by at least putting the Farc to bed, the other issues can then be tackled with more vigour. 

As for former Farc members carrying on their criminal ways under a different banner post-peace endorsement, only time will tell on that one.

Should, as expected, the yes side win on Sunday, it's not, at the risk of sounding facetious, going to be a case of peace and love from Monday onwards. However, the hope must be that it marks the start of a move to a more positive era in Colombia's story. 

 

As Santos said, and here's hoping he and his ilk mean it, 'the hard work starts now.' 

Creating a more equitable Colombia is something that requires much more than a few handshakes and the signing of an agreement. 

A sceptical Colombian public needs convincing that the times are indeed a-changin' for the better.
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Colombia's Chamberlain-esque peace?

On the face of it, it seems like a no-brainer. On 02 October Colombians are going to be asked to vote either 'yes' or 'no' for peace. 

That is to say, to give their backing to a deal finally reached between the government and the leftist-styled Farc rebels to end a bloody internal conflict that has troubled the country for over 50 years. Apart from the sadistic amongst us, who wouldn't vote in the affirmative?

President Santos' peace, but not for all Colombians?

Of course, it's just not that simple, even if, perhaps, it should be. You see, there is a belief that what has been brokered by the negotiators in Cuba in many ways doesn't reflect the reality on the ground in Colombia. 

A political agreement that looks fine and dandy on paper and allows the warring leaders to come together in brotherly love (it has pretty much been male-dominated), but a deal practically not worth the paper it's written on in "normal Colombia", the very place it's meant to bring about real, positive change. That's a view you won't have to search hard to find among the masses.

We've written plenty here before about the problems inherent in this process, one of those being the idea that the Farc leaders who negotiated this deal do not speak for the majority under their control (if ‘control’ is the right word to use here at all). 

Indeed, with political positions in the offing for the few Farc dealmakers of Havana, their lives might just be about to become a whole lot easier. The same cannot be said for the foot soldiers.

This is one source of scepticism towards the whole process for Colombians; it's to be found especially among the lower classes and away from the big cities (as we mentioned in a previous post). 

The idea is that those who may fly under the Farc banner today will just continue on in criminality post this peace deal being ratified, if that should happen. 

Plus, you have those who were never Farc members, be they fellow leftists or from the right, who have made a tidy living from both controlling and living in what you could call a separate state from the elected one headed by Juan Manuel Santos. Colombia's black market can be quite profitable.

What's more, there are those, headed vociferously by former president, the hawkish Álvaro Uribe, who view this as Santos' peace, not one that truly represents Colombia at large (el pueblo Colombiano). 

With Santos' approval rating low, a protest 'no' vote is a distinct possibility to add to the other genuine causes for concern that Colombians have about the process.

Most people know that true peace is not going to come with the simple signing of an agreement and a ceasefire. There are a host of deeper obstacles before arriving at a situation where peace and stability can thrive in Colombia. 

At the heart of those is the vast inequality that exists in the country, something that, it appears, no government has been willing or able to pay proper attention to.

That aside, that some of Colombia's men of violence have decided to give peace a chance has to be seen as a positive development, better than the status quo. 

Yes, officialdom was duped before, but a Neville Chamberlain returning from Nazi-run Germany in 1938 with a peace for our time type of agreement this is not. This particular deal has some substance to it. 

For sure, it's far from perfect, but it is a step in the right direction. The hope must be that it is a modicum of peace to achieve more peace.

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