Conservative Colombia left in the cold — for now

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

So the last bastion of conservatism and right-wing populism in Latin America has fallen. Colombia has chosen a leftist president for the first time in its history.

A new dawn for Colombia? Gustavo Petro and Francia Marquéz celebrate their historic election win. (Photo from Facebook.)

The rains that fell incessantly on the capital city, Bogotá, as the results flooded in on Sunday 19 June were most likely viewed as cleansing waters from the heavens for supporters of now president-elect Gustavo Petro. Indeed, in a tweet, he did put the victory down to 'God and the citizens and their history (or story).'

New Colombia

For those who loathe the former rebel — and there are many in that category — the dreary weather must have felt like pathetic fallacy, heralding a decadent, possibly very unstable era.

In fairness, both Petro and the surprise-package challenger in this run-off contest, 77-year-old Rodolfo Hernández who ran on a strong anti-corruption ticket, were representing a change of sorts. Hernández — or the more affectionate Rodolfo as he goes by — was hardly mentioned as a serious contender a month or so out from the first election on 29 May.

His social media campaigning was Trumpesque, making particular use of TikTok. The plan for the former mayor of Bucaramanga appeared to be, 'don't give too much away and just say what many want to hear'. It nearly produced the hoped-for effect.

Petro, on the other hand, has been in the national political limelight for quite some time. Alongside his highly divisive guerilla involvement in the 1970s and '80s, he was elected to Colombia's lower house of Congress in 2002, became a senator in 2006 and won the Bogotá mayor's office in 2012. He also previously ran for president in 2010 and 2018.

'A taxi driver who voted for the winner told me it was a case of opting for the least-bad candidate. Or, to borrow from a saying in these parts, to avoid going from Guatemala to Guatepeor.'

This familiarity may have actually been a significant factor in getting Petro over the line this time. The loose-cannon nature of Rodolfo that displayed itself on numerous occasions worked to his rival's advantage.

As a far-from-euphoric taxi driver who voted for the winner told me, it was a case of opting for the least-bad candidate. Or, to borrow from a saying in these parts, to avoid going from Guatemala to Guatepeor — from bad to worse, basically.

Petrograd

The concerns of those against Petro are in relation to what is seen as his socialist agenda. 'He'll turn Colombia into another Venezuela', that's the common mantra.

A dramatic disruptor in the mould of Hugo Chávez, he is unlikely to be, however. Yes, he and, to an even greater extent, his vice president, the Afro-Colombian environmentalist and human-rights activist Francia Marquéz, represent something quite removed from those of the old Conservative/Liberal heritage who have dominated these offices before.

Yet, the idea that they'll tear down the existing state structures and construct an entirely new system seems somewhat farfetched.

The term, which begins on 07 August, is, after all, limited to four years with reelection constitutionally prohibited. What an administration with a potentially radical programme — and much to do with it — can achieve in such a timeframe in a rather legalistic country is open to debate.

Thus, paving the way for a successor will most likely be a high priority. The 'Petro Plan' is going to need more than four years to deal with the likes of deep-rooted inequality, to name just one of the country's many ills.

As outgoing President Iván Duque discovered in 2021 with his tax-reform proposals — a perennial problem here — opposition in Colombia can be fierce and bring together disparate sections of society.

Mentioning Duque, when he hands over the reins to Petro he'll have just turned 46. One gets the feeling, however, that he'll be happy to end his career in Colombian politics when he vacates Casa de Nariño, unlike his mentor, the president from 2002 to 2010, Álvaro Uribe.

Whatever lies in store for Duque, these next four years for Colombia are certainly set to be intriguing.

While many thought it would never happen, Petro's big moment has arrived. For sure, he'll face many obstacles as, it would appear, about half the country won't want him to succeed, some of whom wield considerable power in various influential spheres.

Yet, for the other half, he is the president they have been waiting for to make what they see as the necessary changes to finally improve their lot.

It's now time to deliver, Presidente Petro. Your enemies aren't willing to stay in the cold for long.
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Colombia decides: Go with Gutiérrez or plump for Petro?

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

In just over a month, 29 May 2022 to be precise, Colombians go to the polls to elect their next president.

In the left corner, Gustavo Petro. And in the right-ish corner, Federico "Fico" Gutiérrez. (Photos from https://www.facebook.com/gustavopetrourrego/photos/ & https://federicogutierrez.com/.) 

Fico fights back

There are two things that we can take as virtually certain at this stage. One is that the country's next leader will be a man. The other is that this man won't be declared the winner on 29 May.

The reason for the latter is that for a candidate to win the presidency in the first round, he/she needs more than 50 per cent of the overall valid votes cast. With eight runners currently in the field for the nation's top job and polls showing no runaway favourite, it's pretty much certain a run-off will be needed between the top two candidates.

That head-to-head — barring some dramatic game-changer in the coming weeks — will be between former Bogotá mayor and runner-up in the 2018 presidential election, Gustavo Petro, and Federico "Fico" Gutiérrez, former mayor of Colombia's second city, Medellín.

Opinion polls have shown the leftist Petro with a relatively consistent lead throughout for some time now. Indeed, with a split centre/centre-right vote in round one — that there is no official candidate from the party of the still popular yet divisive former president, Álvaro Uribe, the man who helped propel outgoing president Iván Duque to victory, is a factor here — it seems safe to assume the one-time guerrilla will win the first round but fall somewhat short of the magic number to obviate a second day out.

'All this has to be balanced against the idea that a leftist, former guerrilla becoming Colombia's president takes the cherished sweetness out of the morning coffee of many citizens.'

Thus, similar to 2018 (see my post from that year, Right you are Colombia, for background), the key question is, where will the votes from the losing candidates in round one go in round two?

Most observers, backed up by polling — polls do tend to be reliable in Colombia — suggest Gutiérrez (I'm loath to call him by the affectionate "Fico" monicker) will take the lion's share. This may be enough to get him over the line but it looks set to be very close. (Do note that traditionally conservative Colombia has never returned what one may consider a genuine leftist candidate.)

The country's electoral system does also allow for a valid protest/blank vote, 'voto en blanco' (see https://wwcorrigan.blogspot.com/2018/02/colombia-vote-ve-blanco-for-real-change.html). In the 2018 run-off, this took 4.2 per cent of the overall votes, an increase of three percentage points from that year's first round. In one opinion poll in March this year, 16 per cent of respondents said they would vote blank. With that in mind, this phantom candidate may play a decisive role this time.

A turnout for Petro?

Another important factor is turnout. It hovered around 54 per cent in both rounds in 2018, a rather high figure compared to all the other presidential elections this century. As a reference, turnout for this year's congressional elections in March was just over 47 per cent of registered voters, about 1.5 percentage points lower than the 2018 figure.

If turnout increases for this year's presidential election — the various controversies with voter registration in Colombia aside — and we guesstimate that this means a greater participation of younger voters, the belief is that this would be a positive for Petro.

All this has to be balanced against the idea that a leftist and former guerrilla becoming Colombia's president takes the cherished sweetness out of the morning coffee of a not-insignificant number of citizens.

Even the slightest suggestion of something socialist sees many people point to the east and the ongoing mess that is neighbouring Venezuela.

That aside, and while Petro's mayorship of Bogotá was not without its ideological battles (see https://wwcorrigan.blogspot.com/2012/12/petrograd-colombias-new-capital.html & https://blogs.eltiempo.com/wrong-way-corrigan/2014/01/24/ordonez-petro-et-al-fiddle-while-bogota-continues-to-burn/), one finds it hard to envisage a Petro presidency turning the country into the next Venezuela.

Brother countries they may be but the overall more conservative nature of Colombia means it is unlikely radical social change will occur here akin to what we've seen in Venezuela over the last twenty years. What's more, Gustavo Petro is no Hugo Chávez Frías.

Indeed, it could be argued that the most radical departure Colombians could take in this presidential election would be if voto en blanco won the day.

That won't happen. So, as a largely independent observer, if I was forced at this stage to put some of my hard-earned pesos on the outcome, I'd go with Gutiérrez. Very hesitantly, that is.
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2021: Reasons to be fearful

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

New year, new hope. And after the stagnation that was 2020 for many — save for the comfortable, virtue-signalling folk who have seen their lot actually improve — there appears to be more of a focus than usual on the positives that lie in store for us over the next 12 months.

Uribe, mi presidente. (Image from Facebook.)

Nonetheless, positivity is one thing, reality another — we'll leave to one side the postmodernist view on what is real and what isn't, only to say that when you're dead, you're dead. So while we'll do our best to carry on regardless, here are some reasons to be less than optimistic that 2021 will be brighter than 2020.

Covid chaos

Let's start with the most obvious. Regardless of where you stand on the efficacy of lockdowns and the true severity of coronavirus (in a recent interview, the historian Niall Ferguson noted how in terms of lethality the disease isn't even in the top 25 of global pandemics humanity has suffered), the closedown-to-suppress-the-virus approach has been adopted by many countries.

For sure, with vaccines now on the scene, hopes are high in richer nations that they'll be able to get on top of the situation in the first six months of this year or so.

However, considering the way our decision-makers and much of the media have become completely engrossed in every detail of this virus and its modus operandi to the detriment of pretty much all other areas of life, those who hope that by this time next year we'll be in AC (After Coronavirus) times need a reality check.

'Closer to Colombia, strong rhetoric against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has the potential to morph into something more than mere words.'

What's more, emerging-market countries, such as here in Colombia, look set to be well behind the curve in any vaccine bounce. 

By going along with the richer nations' moment of crisis in their otherwise comfortable existence, in following the lead of said richer nations and neglecting other, arguably more serious problems, developing countries will be cast further adrift. Inequality will widen, not only between nations but within them as well.

One final covid "fear" is the continuation of Colombian President Iván Duque's cringeworthy, quite condescending evening TV addresses. Mercifully, they are easily avoidable. I'm clearly not the only one who has had enough. The owner of one of my panadería offices changes channel as soon as El Presidente comes on.

Biden bombs

Much of the world will breathe a sigh of relief when US President Donald J. Trump vacates the White House on 20 January. In his place comes a veteran establishment figure, a man who many view as a safe pair of hands, Democrat Joe Biden.

The thing is, after four years of a president who put America (the United States part of it, that is) first, who largely preferred isolationism rather than internationalism, a Biden administration will look to reassert Washington's influence on the global stage. How that manifests itself over the next few years will be fascinating to watch, from a safe distance that is, if one can be found.

OK, another flare-up in the Middle East doesn't exactly usher in Armageddon, but an outwardly bullish, confident China is sure to lay down the gauntlet to what it must perceive as a weak, disjointed rival.

Closer to Colombia, strong rhetoric against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — a China ally of sorts — has the potential to morph into something more than mere words. In fact, the centrist faction of the Democratic Party might see it as a way to show it's not being highjacked by the left, as well as adhering to its stated global clampdown on corruption.

In addition, "corrective" action against Caracas would do no harm at all in helping to boost support among certain Hispanic voters who loathe the socialist wing hovering in the USA's blue corner.

And attacking fellow human beings is more box office than fighting a microscopic, common enemy of mankind.

Uribe presente, es mi presidente

One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. So while large swathes of the Colombian electorate will be thrilled with the prospect of an Uribe running for the presidency next year, many will be filled with dread.

Reports in late 2020 suggested that Tomás Uribe, son of former president, the divisive Álvaro Uribe, was being sounded out by Centro Democrático officials to run for the country's top job.

By all accounts, it's a long shot — he's reputedly not keen — but if Colombia was to put an Uribe back in Casa de Nariño, it would open the door for old scores to be settled, à la US President George W. Bush finishing off some of his father George H.'s business.

In such a scenario, we may not need the US to instigate war with the neighbours to the east. The Uribes are coming for Chavismo in all its manifestations, abroad and at home.

Whatever transpires over the course of the next 12 months, it promises to be an exciting ride.
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Colombia: The risk is seeing your paradise go up in flames

We don't have to go too far back to find a time when Colombia was pretty much considered a no-go area.

At the turn of the millennium, only the true adventurous, nay mad in the head, would consider visiting the country as a tourist, let alone actually settle down and invest decent time and money in it.

For the last number of years, as most readers of this blog will know, this negative reputation has been rapidly changing.

Uribe's utopia

The peace agreement signed with the Farc guerrillas in 2016, officially ending over half-a-century of internal conflict between that group and government forces, was a significant moment in this regard.

Up in smoke: The damage caused to 'Finca Entre Ríos'.

Yet, as important as that has been at an official level, the truth is this viewing of Colombia in a much more positive light internationally had begun years before.

Unpalatable as this may be to many Colombians today, especially younger generations, between 2002 and 2010, under the hawkish presidency of Álvaro Uribe, the general security situation improved considerably.

Whether the ends justified the heavy-handed means — heavier on some violent types more so than others, it could be said — is something still being discussed today.

A home from home

Nonetheless, from a tourism perspective, visiting the many natural gems the country has to offer became much less risky, for locals and foreigners alike.

This trend, some hotspots notwithstanding, has been continuing.

Alongside increasing tourist numbers, a not-insignificant number of foreigners have made Colombia their home. They've voted with their feet in a positive way, demonstrating to those who care to listen that this place is not the violent backwater some in the more 'developed' world still think it is.

At times, however, the country gives us all a little reminder that it has a bit to go before we can compare it favourably with other, more established spots when it comes to investing in it. Quite a bit to go.

Para-dise's price

One of these more sinister sides is extortion, which reared its ugly head for fellow Irishman Patrick Fleming who has called Santa Marta his home since 2001. While we've heard stories of police being directly and unashamedly involved in this practice, this particular example is to do with suspected paramilitaries.

In some ways, that Patrick managed to avoid trouble for so long could be seen as good fortune. Paramilitaries did operate in the area in question when he first arrived, but nothing untoward had ever happened.

That aside, when your little piece of paradise on the Caribbean, a magical place visited by this blog last year, gets deliberately burnt to the ground at any stage, it's difficult to view it in a positive light.

In fact, after years developing his 'Finca Entre Ríos' at Paso del Mango on the foothills of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, where he provided employment for a young family, this arson attack now has the generally easygoing Patrick and his Colombian wife contemplating their future in the region.

The reason it happened is quite simple.

Pay or go?

Earlier in the year Paso del Mango's small community experienced a number of petty robberies. Shortly afterwards a hotel in the area was approached and asked to pay the dreaded 'vacuna', the word for protection money in these parts.

The community got together and decided they wouldn't fork out the cash to the extortionists. Extra police protection was asked for, which duly came. It didn't last, though.

As a further buffer, the community also managed to get additional army patrols, but again, the frequency of these soon decreased.

Thus, with little sustained help from state authorities, be it by accident or design, the rather secluded community was ripe for the picking. Cue the arson attack.

Now, it must be said that one man was arrested and charged in connection with the incident. Authorities seem content, by all accounts, that they've done their bit.

Yet, for Patrick and the Paso del Mango community in general it's a question of, 'What next?'

Mob rule appears to have taken hold, where the only options seem to be pay up or leave. The hope is that this retrograde step is just temporary.
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'Right you are, Colombia'

There is very often a significant difference between what one might like to see happen and what actually does transpire.

In this regard, in relation to our previous post, lest there be any confusion, we don't expect Humberto de la Calle to be Colombia's next president. As much as we may like what he's about, the majority of the Colombian electorate, those who actually matter in this, don't. Or at least they don't want him as their next president.

Iván Duque: The "right" fit for Colombia (photo from Facebook).

In fact, de la Calle himself more than likely realises he won't be taking up residence at Casa de Nariño.

The man who will be doing that, barring what would amount to a significant sea change in the state of play, is Iván Duque.

It's pretty clear why.

Firstly, in normal circumstances, those who bother to vote in Colombia look to the centre/centre-right when electing their president.

Taking that as a given, there are really only two other serious challengers to Duque: Sergio Fajardo and Germán Vargas Lleras.

Yet, if we are to trust the majority of opinion polls, the country's left, or more socially democratic minded we could say, are behind Gustavo Petro in significant numbers. For many in this bracket, it's Petro or nothing (or certainly not Álvaro Uribe's protégé Duque). 

So this large minority, if they get out and vote, should do enough to get their "messiah" into the decisive second-round vote. The thing is, faced with a split centre-right vote, the Petro ticket does well.

However, in a straight shoot-out against just one, let's say more acceptable candidate for this country, Petro's a losing bet. This is especially so when it's seen as a black-and-white contest, left versus right, as it will be with Duque.

It seems safe to assume that the majority of Vargas Lleras's votes would transfer to Duque. Some Fajardo voters might swing to Petro, but certainly not all of them.

Thus, for the many 'Anybody but Duque/Uribe' Petro voters, their best chance of keeping the Centro Democrático out might be to opt for Fajardo in the first round. That is, try and make it a Duque-Fajardo head-to-head. In that scenario, some more centrist-type voters who wouldn't contemplate siding with Petro might be more inclined to go with Fajardo rather than Duque.

Of course, this sort of tactical, second-guessing voting largely based on opinion polls is risky. It could all backfire.

Nonetheless, regardless of how the others line up, this looks to be Duque's contest to lose.

This brings us on to the broader issue of why Colombia tends to shun anybody with a hint of "left" to him/her when it comes to its president.

The fact that the state has been battling leftist insurgents since the 1950s is a significant factor. 

For this particular election, the murderous activities of Farc dissidents on the Ecuadorian border, the controversial arrest of a high-up ex Farc guerrilla on drug trafficking charges and the stop-start peace talks with a still active ELN reinforce the commonly held view that 'left is bad'. The political and social turmoil in neighbouring "socialist" Venezuela is also playing its part.

Yet, other Latin American countries have had to deal with a violent left without this resulting in such political thinking being pretty much dismissed outright.

One of the differences for Colombia is due to the fact that the state, with significant help from right-wing paramilitaries, systematically destroyed the political left, rendering it no more than an irritant. The discourse has been dominated by the victors, the rightist state and its media friends.

Those on the left are subversives, a threat to the Colombian republic. So the narrative goes anyway.
(It is important to note here that the United Nations estimates that the Farc and ELN accounted for 12 per cent of civilian deaths in the conflict up to 2016, with 80 per cent attributed to right-wing paramilitaries. The government was responsible for the remaining eight per cent.)

Thus, with the recent violent events mentioned above, Colombia's rightist guardians look as appealing as ever to urban dwellers across the stratum divide.

Now is not the time to rock the boat. Better the devil you know guys.
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Colombia, to de la Calle!

OK, we may need to change our preference. While we still have plenty of respect for V.E. Blanco, the sad reality is, for, um, existential reasons he won't actually physically make it to Palacio de Nariño, Colombia's presidential palace.

That being so, you still have to admire his performance ahead of the presidential first-round vote on 27 May. He's doing better than four of the seven actual candidates in the race. Only Iván Duque, Gustavo Petro and Sergio Fajardo (just about) are more popular according to the opinion polls.

De la Calle: As his name suggests, he's right at home on the streets. (Picture from Facebook.)

To the left, to the right 

Yet, taking Dr Blanco out of things, who do we endorse for Colombia's top job? For many locals, it's either the rightist Duque, the candidate of former president, the divisive Álvaro Uribe, or former Bogotá mayor and once leftist guerrilla with the defunct M-19, Petro. 

The never-again-to-be-trusted opinion polls have Duque ahead, a man who has promised to make significant adjustments to the peace agreement outgoing President Juan Manuel Santos signed with the Farc.

In many ways, it would be interesting to see how Colombia would operate under a leftist president, something it has never really had. Now, how left Petro actually is, depends on who you listen to. He talks a somewhat leftist game in any case, yet he certainly doesn't dress like a man at one with the impoverished masses.

For sure, all candidates realise the need to address the vast inequality Colombia has and they have various ideas in this regard. Yet proposals on paper are one thing, putting them into practice, quite another. Needless to say, there's no simple solution.

Fajardo the fair

Notwithstanding that, considering Duque-Petro is seen as a battle of the extremes — "A hawkish Duque presidency will result in deepening political and social division, a Petro administration will see the country slide towards socialism and potentially cripple the economy" — more moderate Colombians are looking for the centre ground. On this front, former Medellín mayor and Antioquia department governor Fajardo appears to be the preferred candidate.

He's promising to be a "president of reconciliation", playing, in a way, to that concern that a win for either of the current leading candidates will dangerously divide the country.

Of course, he's not the only centrist candidate. However, the polls have him comfortably ahead of both Germán Vargas Lleras, who had a stint as vice president under Santos, and the Liberal party's Humberto de la Calle, whose last political role was government chief negotiator in the Farc peace talks.

That the two men had important posts in the Santos administration is no doubt working against them. The electorate is looking for change and both Vargas Lleras and de la Calle have been too close to the outgoing crowd.

De la Calle: The stopgap president?

Yet, the country could do worse than taking stock of things after a few rocky years. For one, there's been that aforementioned controversial peace agreement which ended up being rejected in a referendum yet its implementation went ahead anyway. 

We've also seemingly never-ending corruption scandals and the delicate issue of streams of Venezuelans continuing to enter the country as they escape the mess they have at home.

In such an environment, an experienced, largely respected pair of hands in the shape of Humberto de la Calle could be seen as a good compromise, interim choice.

At almost 72 years of age and with his moderate background, he’s not exactly in the same mould as a Putin or Uribe. A ‘president for life’ by whatever means possible he will not be.

He's unlikely to dramatically change things, for better or for worse. However, at a time when the tendency across the globe seems to be to run to the extremes, de la Calle offers Colombia a little breather from the madness, and maybe even a bit more.

Humberto de la Calle: Steady as she goes for four short years?

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Introducing "our" Colombia

We all, those of us with links to the place at least, have our own views about Colombia and what it represents. There are, obviously enough, many ways to look at it.

Nonetheless, however you view it, do remember that it is ColOmbia not ColUmbia. For a country with so much to offer and seemingly growing ever more popular by the day, some outsiders still can't spell it correctly. Hence the line 'The only "u" that should be in Colombia is you.' Clever enough stuff, eh?

So as a helping hand in this regard, taking each letter of the country's name, here we give our — sideways, you might say — take on what Colombia is for us.

Changua: Not everybody's favourite. (Photo by Jorvato, Wikipedia.)

C is for changua

Admittedly this isn't the first thing people think of when linking the letter 'c' to Colombia. Most would more than likely go for the country's world-renowned coffee. (No? What were you thinking of, then?)

Yet, we're plumping for changua here, not only because we find it delicious, especially in combating a hangover (on the rare occasions we have one), but also because not many outsiders will know about it.

In fact, the changua we love -- a couple of cracked eggs cooked in milk with bread, cilantro (coriander) leaves, a bit of onion and perhaps garlic, ideally some cheese melted in as well, with salt to taste -- is pretty much a Bogotá speciality. It's hard to get that exact mix on offer in other parts of the country.

For most who haven't tried it, it sounds revolting. We have to admit, we thought the same. But it works, and works wonderfully if you ask us.

O is for office

One of the 'offices' ...

We've had a few offices scattered around the capital; they've generally depended on where we've been living at the time.

Basically, we're on about panaderías, the bog(otá)-standard bread and coffee shops. Delightful places to get an affordable coffee with milk (a perico) and snack-sized portions of fresh bread, all the better when they're just out of the oven. We call them the office as we tend to spend a good deal of time in them, be it to do some writing or other work, or simply just to chill out.

Giovanni's on Calle 32 just up from Carrera 5 in La Perseverancia (see below) remains a favourite even though we now live miles away from there. Max Pan in Barrio Santandercito and Vicky's in Barrio Nueva Zelandia are new regulars in our current north Bogotá base.

Lost City

L is for Lost City (Ciudad Perdida)

Colombia's Machu Picchu so to put it, but somewhat quainter and allegedly older. It's now over eight years since we visited this ancient indigenous settlement hidden away (well, not quite now!) in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta jungle off the Caribbean coast, yet it left a lasting impression.

Things might have changed a little since then, but we found the three-day trek to reach it more authentic, and certainly far less congested, than the more celebrated Inca ruins. While we're due a return, there remain other popular and not-so-popular beauty spots that we've yet to visit here; 'a lot seen, a lot more to see'. All in its own good time.

O is for Ordóñez

An important 'o' this, insofar as some people put a 'u' in here. Don't. That's a different place.

So rather than 'u for Uribe' we've got 'o for Ordóñez', the nation's former inspector general who's now a 2018 presidential candidate.

As mentioned in a previous post, in many ways Alejandro Ordóñez represents traditional Colombia, so he's worthy of inclusion here. That and the fact that of the country's political big guns, he's one of only a couple we've met, briefly as it was.

M is for mujeres

We could have used 'c' for chicas, but changua is far more important (and rewarding). So we'll mention the women, 'mujeres' here.

Colombia, of course, is well known for its beautiful women, but that beauty often comes at a price, in all sorts of ways. This is certainly the case for the majority of the ones we've tried to woo anyway.

We've practically written the book on that in a host of previous blog posts (you can start with 'Ignoring is bliss' and work back from there), so we'll say no more, other than try not to take things too seriously if you do get involved on this score. It's better in the long run.

B is for Bogotá

An obvious one, but it has been the base of our Colombian operation and it's a city that still exerts a strange hold on us.

When we do eventually leave the place, there are lots of things we'll miss. They're just not always easy to point out.

I is for IQuiz "The Bogotá Pub Quiz"

Self-serving this may be, but we're talking about our experiences in the almost six years we've been here, and IQuiz has played a significant part. Put simply, our labour of love.

Best buddies!

A is for Abril 

No, we're not referring to the month of April, which is abril in Spanish. We're on about the surname Abril, and more specifically our good friend Fernando Abril.

For sure, Colombia has many amazing and unique things going for it, but as in many walks of life, it's often the simpler ones that matter most.

In this regard, Fernando, his small tienda and a number of the clientele in the not-quite-salubrious surroundings of La Perseverancia have been a memorable find.

Yes, in other barrios we've found similar places, but Fernando's and the folk of La Perse are the original, the first 'true love' so to put it (with a worthy mention of a bar up Barrio Egipto way, the precursor to La Perse in a sense).

So that's 'our Colombia', one version of it anyway. Each to their own and all that.

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The Pastrana-Uribe alliance: Colombia's path to 'redemption'

For many of the old and not-so-old bearded lefties, both men and, um, women, it's a nightmare scenario. A presidential candidate under the auspices of former heads of state Álvaro Uribe and Andrés Pastrana sweeping to victory in next year's election.

The two ex-presidents, anti the peace deal with the Farc that's currently in operation, have come together in a grand alliance of the winning 'no' side in last year's referendum on the peace accords. The far-too-liberal agenda must be checked, the Good Ship Colombia needs to return to calmer waters, and these doyens of the country's politics can guide her there.

It's not clear at this remove who'll be the actual face on the ballot paper, the Pastrana-Uribe puppet on a string so to put it, but with the big guns in his (it's sure to be a man) corner, it practically doesn't matter.

The likely lads: Uribe (l) with Pastrana. (Photo from Facebook.)

Now, while we've written here before that when it comes to genuine choice in Colombian elections it's generally la misma mierda ('the same sh*t') whatever you're having, there might just be merit in the 'new, old way' with Messrs Pastrana and Uribe. Here's why:

A firm hand

Let's be honest, if you give sneaky characters an inch, they'll take a mile and then some. In these parts, we've plenty of such types from all walks of life. From a political perspective, some of those dastardly ex-Farc lads are now trying to pass themselves off as honest politicians alongside other leftist relics looking to impose their far out ideas on the country.

It's not exactly a case of nipping this in the bud as it's been going on throughout President Santos' stewardship, but the Pastrano-Uribe ticket can stop the rot. The old Uribe line was, 'A firm hand, a big heart', so it's time we saw that firm hand again (it's better not to ask how firm that hand might be; rest assured it will take no prisoners when needs be).

Sure Colombia could do with a bit of population pruning; look no further than these guys for that.

The Lord is my shepherd

Not only does the country appear to be floating more towards nasty socialism akin to the mess that is Venezuela, but it also seems to be becoming more secular.

The fundamentalist Catholic candidate Alejandro Ordóñez provides one anecdote to that, but Pastrano-Uribe may just have a broader, whisper it, 'sexier' appeal.

The papal visit later this year is set to ensure that Colombia's religious fervour gets a good shot in the arm as well, not that it really needs it (as hypocritical as it tends to be all the same).

Religion still matters here and Pastrano-Uribe has that base covered as good as the best of them.

More Maduro than Maduro himself

Speaking of Venezuela, we've the Nicolás Maduro factor next door.

The Pastrano-Uribe alliance could be seen as fighting fire with fire to tackle the firebrand, if rather clownish, premier. Counter one idiotic proposal or statement with another. The perfect blocking tactic. Genius.

Tweet like Trump

You can't be a top president nowadays, so it goes anyway, without being a dab hand at the old Twitter machine.

In this regard, Álvaro Uribe even out trumps Trump — indeed, it might have been Uribe who The Donald took inspiration from. He's been shooting off (careful now) controversial, divisive tweets for years. No doubt he'll be extolling the virtues of such a strategy to his anointed one for this election.

It's not enough to be a real-life bloody commander, you've got to be a virtual killing machine these days, too.

Whatever the case, there certainly shouldn't be a dull moment with the Pastrana-Uribe alliance in the mix in the run-up to round one of the presidential election next May. Just sit back and enjoy the ride we're all going to be taken on; there's not much else we can do.
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Colombia's Chamberlain-esque peace?

On the face of it, it seems like a no-brainer. On 02 October Colombians are going to be asked to vote either 'yes' or 'no' for peace. 

That is to say, to give their backing to a deal finally reached between the government and the leftist-styled Farc rebels to end a bloody internal conflict that has troubled the country for over 50 years. Apart from the sadistic amongst us, who wouldn't vote in the affirmative?

President Santos' peace, but not for all Colombians?

Of course, it's just not that simple, even if, perhaps, it should be. You see, there is a belief that what has been brokered by the negotiators in Cuba in many ways doesn't reflect the reality on the ground in Colombia. 

A political agreement that looks fine and dandy on paper and allows the warring leaders to come together in brotherly love (it has pretty much been male-dominated), but a deal practically not worth the paper it's written on in "normal Colombia", the very place it's meant to bring about real, positive change. That's a view you won't have to search hard to find among the masses.

We've written plenty here before about the problems inherent in this process, one of those being the idea that the Farc leaders who negotiated this deal do not speak for the majority under their control (if ‘control’ is the right word to use here at all). 

Indeed, with political positions in the offing for the few Farc dealmakers of Havana, their lives might just be about to become a whole lot easier. The same cannot be said for the foot soldiers.

This is one source of scepticism towards the whole process for Colombians; it's to be found especially among the lower classes and away from the big cities (as we mentioned in a previous post). 

The idea is that those who may fly under the Farc banner today will just continue on in criminality post this peace deal being ratified, if that should happen. 

Plus, you have those who were never Farc members, be they fellow leftists or from the right, who have made a tidy living from both controlling and living in what you could call a separate state from the elected one headed by Juan Manuel Santos. Colombia's black market can be quite profitable.

What's more, there are those, headed vociferously by former president, the hawkish Álvaro Uribe, who view this as Santos' peace, not one that truly represents Colombia at large (el pueblo Colombiano). 

With Santos' approval rating low, a protest 'no' vote is a distinct possibility to add to the other genuine causes for concern that Colombians have about the process.

Most people know that true peace is not going to come with the simple signing of an agreement and a ceasefire. There are a host of deeper obstacles before arriving at a situation where peace and stability can thrive in Colombia. 

At the heart of those is the vast inequality that exists in the country, something that, it appears, no government has been willing or able to pay proper attention to.

That aside, that some of Colombia's men of violence have decided to give peace a chance has to be seen as a positive development, better than the status quo. 

Yes, officialdom was duped before, but a Neville Chamberlain returning from Nazi-run Germany in 1938 with a peace for our time type of agreement this is not. This particular deal has some substance to it. 

For sure, it's far from perfect, but it is a step in the right direction. The hope must be that it is a modicum of peace to achieve more peace.

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Border battles: What next for Colombia and Venezuela?

In many ways, there is a sense of inevitability to all of this. Although those who call the shots in both Colombia and Venezuela are pretty much from the same stock, the ideologies they (claim) to follow are far from similar.

Nicolás Maduro: quashing Colombians. (Photo from Facebook.)

Considering socialist Venezuela's anti-US stance, having a neighbour that is, politically speaking anyway, rather cosy with Washington has always been a sore point.

Add in a president who has been feeling the heat both inside and outside his country since taking office in 2013 from a more charismatic and popular deceased predecessor and this attempt to unite the people against 'foreign insurgents' isn't surprising. 

It's also not without historical precedence. Problems at home? Create a distracting rallying point.

In fact, in this particular case, it's a line Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro (as Hugo Chávez before) has been spinning for some time: Colombian paramilitaries are active in his country, plotting to overthrow his rule. 

Colombia is also the source of narco-trafficking and other illegal activities that cross into Venezuela. And all these actions are getting clandestine support from none other than former Colombian president and current state senator Álvaro Uribe.

This siege mentality, whether perceived or real, appears to have reached a head for the Maduro administration with its decision to expel over a thousand Colombian citizens from the country and close the border.

Understandably, the sight of their countrymen fleeing across that border, taking whatever belongings they can before their dwellings are to be, allegedly, demolished, has angered Colombians at home.

So far, the reaction from Bogotá has been strong words only; President Juan Manuel Santos is hoping on finding a diplomatic solution to this mini-crisis. 

Such an approach is to be expected from a man currently trying to close a peace deal with guerrillas to end over 50 years of internal conflict in his country. The dove isn't about to turn into a hawk just yet.

If the more belligerent Uribe or any of his Centro Democrático party colleagues were calling the shots things could be far more delicate than they are at present. 

Indeed, Uribe has already called the Venezuelan government's action 'an attempt at genocide'. This came 24 hours after Maduro accused him of being a paramilitary leader and an assassin.

However, the idea of this escalating into anything more serious is unlikely at this remove. 

Alongside the Santos diplomacy, in many ways the Venezuelan leadership is on a tightrope. Engaging in what many at home would see as an unnecessary military confrontation with the neighbours could be the beginning of the end for Maduro and co.

We're not quite at the brink, but both parties would do well to recall their shared heritage. 

The many people in the two states who venerate the great liberator from old Spanish rule, Simón Bolívar, should remember that if he had had his way there would be no border. 

Yet right now that line in the map seems as pronounced as ever.
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A lot done, more to do

What a heady few days it's been for Colombia. There's what you might call a giddy excitement about the place. Most of that, unsurprisingly, is emanating from La Selección's, the national football team's rather impressive start to the World Cup. 

After a gap of 16 years since their last appearance at the finals, seeing off a seasoned tournament side as Greece are 3-nil, the European's somewhat muted challenge notwithstanding, has to be applauded. And that it certainly was, and then some. You can only imagine what the celebrations would be like if Colombia actually went on to win the World Cup.

Dancing in the streets for La Selección.

Then, just over 24 hours later, you had what for many is seen as a victory for peace – or at least to give it a chance – with Juan Manuel Santos' re-election as president. Sure, this hasn't united the country in anyway close to the way the football team has nor was it celebrated as universally.

A quick look at the numbers illustrates this: Taking the number of votos en blanco (votes for neither candidate, at just over 4 per cent) and null votes together with the 45 per cent who sided with the challenger Óscar Iván Zuluaga, and it could be argued that just as many Colombians are against Santos, or at least indifferent to him, as are for him. A turnout of 48 per cent further muddies the water.

However, there is a feeling that a Zuluaga presidency, with the hard-line, highly divisive former president Álvaro Uribe in the background, would have been somewhat of a regressive step for the country. It certainly would have been for the ongoing peace talks the current government is holding with the Farc rebels for one. While there have been false peace dawns here in the past, there does appear to be a majority of Colombians who feel this time could be different.

What's pretty much assured is that it's something that is effectively going to define Santos' legacy. In his victory speech, he spoke about how any peace achieved is not going to be that of 'Juan Manuel Santos or of this government.' It will be, he said, 'peace for all Colombians.' That, of course, is true. 

Yet, as president, Santos is the man leading the way. Rightly or wrongly, it will be at his door that praise or criticism lands. Fail and he'll be seen as another Colombian leader duped by the guerillas; succeed and a Nobel Peace Prize surely awaits.

Peace is the word. But is it within reach?

Whatever your thoughts about Santos, he has certainly proven himself to be astute when dealing with both colleagues and potential rivals. He was happy to use his Uribe links to help him claim his first term; then he washed his hands clean of them once the job was done.

To this end, questions are being asked about what, if anything, he has in mind for Clara López. The defeated leftist candidate from the first round very publicly endorsed him for president, replete with a TV ad, once she exited the race. 

It's hard to precisely measure how much this helped, but it didn't do any harm. So is there a seat at the cabinet table for López after showing such support? Or will it be a case of 'thanks, now off with you'?

Then there's the Bogotá Mayor Gustavo Petro and his faction, again from the political left, who also supported the Santos ticket. It's hard to believe that all this was unconditional; not in these parts.

At what could be seen as hints as to what he has in mind, and for the weekend that was in it, Santos spoke about learning from La Selección. 'Our players', he said, 'taught us that it's not possible to arrive at the big leagues playing as individuals; it's indispensable to work as a team.' 

Thus, he added, 'we are going to form a national selection government to continue building a country more just and egalitarian.'

El Presidente: Off to work, we hope.

So is his 'national selection' going to contain diverse elements, a counterpoint to the traditional centre-right that Colombian politics is chiefly made up of? 

We'll have to wait and see on that one. Furthermore, that 'more just and egalitarian' country might be harder to achieve than peace with the Farc; and, perhaps, less sought after.

One of the Santos campaign slogans was 'A lot done, more to do.' As is the case for the national football team at the World Cup, the greater challenges lie ahead. For now, optimism remains, and with mostly good reason.

However, Colombians from all backgrounds don't need to be reminded how hope can quickly turn to despair. In many ways, on all fronts, the work is only beginning.

Four more years: The least-bad option?

Right. The time for posturing and talking is almost over. We've known the participants for some time, now we're about to find out which one has what it takes to go all the way. 

Most of us, more or less, have a pretty decent idea of who the genuine contenders are versus the no-hopers, but in these final days minor hiccups could have a detrimental effect on the eventual outcome. Nobody can take anything for granted.

So, is it to the right or to the not-so right? (Photo from caliescribe.com.)

Yes, it certainly promises to be some spectacle in neighbouring Brazil when the World Cup kicks off next month. But before we become engrossed in that, there is the 'small', more imminent matter of Colombia's presidential election to keep us semi-entertained.

In fact, it's pretty much assured that the Colombian electorate will be asked to go the polls twice before it knows who its new top man is (for, if the opinion polls are to believed and barring some almighty surprise, it's going to be a man). 

That's because the incumbent seeking re-election, Juan Manuel Santos, has let what was by all accounts a rather healthy lead at the beginning of the year slip as polling day (25 May) approaches. Thus, none of the five candidates is set to get more than the 50 per cent of the votes required to win without the need for a second round.

Santos' nearest challenger has turned out to be, somewhat surprisingly, the Centro Democrático's (Democratic Centre that is; but generally more right of centre) Óscar Iván Zuluaga. 

His surge in popularity has been surprising given the fact that a few months ago the running joke was that when he arrived home each evening, the security guards at his apartment complex had to ask him for ID because he was so unknown.*

However, a mixture of the Centro Democrático getting its political machine into gear and some Santos failings has seen the gap between the two close considerably. 

On the former, the presence of the divisive yet still hugely popular figure for some, ex-president Álvaro Uribe, has been a major help. A dollop of hacking also seems to have worked wonders. 

Indeed, in what could be seen as a measure of the pigheadedness of many Centro Democrático supporters, the sight of Zuluaga 'talking business' with a hacker about delivering a blow to Santos doesn't appear to have done him much harm (see http://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/el-video-del-hacker-con-oscar-ivan-zuluaga/388438-3).

For his own part, how the current president handled – or not, as it appeared to be – the what-turned-out-to-be-temporary sacking of Bogotá mayor Gustavo Petro was problematic. His lack of leadership in what was a farcical period in Colombian politics has left people from all sides questioning his ability to govern.

In a contest where there is no stand-out choice, small things matter.

It's also effectively a first-past-the-post system. The stipulation that there must be a second vote between the top two candidates should no one receive more than 50 per cent first time out is just a delay on that. 

So bearing in mind the conservative nature of Colombia's electorate (those who vote that is, anyway), reflected in the opinion polls, this election is a straight shoot-out between Santos and Zuluaga.

President 'As Cool as it Gets for Now'? (Photo: juanmanuelsantospresidente.com.)

The others at this stage are just also-rans. In any case, the only one who is arguably offering any real alternative to the type of president Colombia has consistently returned is the (mild) leftist Clara López. The rest are very much 'as you were' with really only superficial differences.

Thus, Colombia, is it to be four more years of the 'devil you know', best described, at a push, as steady? Or do you go with the slightly unknown, but of the arrogant, brash Uribe school and party, Zuluaga?

Now, the argument can be made, with reason, that all in the running have Uribe links (as mentioned, for some Colombians that's a good thing). Even 'the darling of the left' López is tainted in this regard; and in a much more intimate way than the other candidates.

But old romances apart, the Zuluaga ticket represents the most potent political link to Uribe. In power, that basically means more division and discord, much less consensus.

Santos' decision to open up peace talks with the country's guerillas – the inherent problems in them apart – shows he is willing to compromise and make sacrifices. 

After more than 50 years of internal, zero-sum strife, 'the exterminate rather than communicate' line still favoured by many in the Uribe faction needs readdressing.**

There is also the theory that a second and final-term president has a little more freedom and can be more daring when released from the re-election straitjacket. Perhaps the best is yet to come from Santos?

Finally, taking it as a given that this election really is just a Santos-Zuluaga head-to-head, there is another strong reason to opt for Santos first up. 

The date for the second round, should it be required, is fixed for the weekend Colombia gets its World Cup campaign under way. And with elections here comes the 'dreaded' Ley Seca ('Dry Law' i.e. a ban on selling alcohol).

Perish the thought of having to watch the opening salvoes in Brazil from the mundaneness of an apartment.

Colombia, the choice is yours.
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*See the earlier Colombia's presidential election: The candidates (and their Irish 'equivalents') for a more of an 'understanding' of all the hopefuls.

**For more on the peace talks, check out An unwanted peace?

Colombia's path to peace?

We’re not big fans of hyperbole here and, thankfully, most Colombians appear to be that way too. 

Hence the somewhat indifferent reaction from many locals to the official revelation of what has been one of the worst-kept secrets in recent Colombian politics: President Juan Manuel Santos’s government has had preliminary discussions with the country’s long-standing left-wing guerrillas, Farc.*

El Presidente: Can he really make peace with the Farc?

Depending on whom you speak to, this indifference to the news verges on the slightly optimistic to the pessimistic. One thing’s for sure, you’ll be hard-pressed to find anybody overjoyed that ‘proper, full-scale’ peace talks are in the offing. 

It’s all down to reconciliation weariness really – Colombia has been here before on many occasions. The fact that the Farc is still involved in bombings and kidnappings tells you just how successful those previous attempts at fostering peace went down.

So what, if anything, has changed this time around? Well, of course, there’s a different administration in place intent on ‘learning from the errors of the past’. It’s the very least President Santos and his team could try. He certainly is saying the right things in this regard. 

He made it clear in his state broadcast that the country’s military would remain in 'every centimetre of national territory'. That was an obvious reference to the failed strategy of former President Andrés Pastrana who, in 1999, demilitarised a vast zone in the south of the country to facilitate peace talks with the rebels. 

While negotiations did take place, this buffer zone allowed the Farc to rebuild, recruit and reinforce itself in relative comfort. The legacy of this is still being felt today as it is in this area that the group remains at its strongest.

Now, while Farc may still have strength in its unofficial safe zones, generally speaking it would appear to be at the weakest point in its history. 

It has suffered key military setbacks against the state’s armed forces in the last few years with the recent upsurge in its attacks seen by some as the desperate last kicks of a cornered beast. Sitting down with the government could be its best option right now. Time will tell how sincere the group is about the whole process.

'The Path to Peace': Far from straightforward.

However, as in any peace talks, one must ask the question, can an essential balance be found that would be key to any potential lasting settlement? 

From this remove, it would appear that the government – and, by extension, the vast majority of the country’s inhabitants – has far more to gain. Obviously, if Farc agrees to lay down its weapons and cease attacks that’s good news for all who want peace. 

For Santos, if things go that well so soon, it should do his faltering approval rating no end of good, helping him in his quest for re-election in 2014. 

Peace negotiations have been part of his manifesto – quite apart from his predecessor, the hard-line right-winger Álvaro Uribe who has been very vociferous in his opposition to talking with ‘terrorists’, attacking the current administration’s policy at every opportunity.

A military-defunct Farc is clearly the very least the Colombian government and the majority of the country’s electorate will look for in any agreement. 

In such a scenario, the Farc, in some form, would surely look for political legitimacy and perhaps immunity from prosecution for some or all of its top members. This is looking at it from a political-conflict point of view.

Yet, the days of this struggle being purely about political ideology – if they ever were – are long gone. There is a far more powerful agent at play and it is this that is at the crux of the issue here: the control of the drugs trade. 

For Farc to go legit and allow unrestricted official access to its white-gold territories will be the equivalent of signing its own death warrant – mainstream political presence or not. 

While we might know what comes out of the depths of Colombia’s jungles, what actually happens inside them and exactly where remains about as mysterious as the inner workings of a rugby scrum. And for those working in the illegal drugs trade, that’s the way they want it to remain.

The 'white gold' in its ore form, the coca leaf.

It has been mentioned on these pages before that the current strategy by most elected governments, Colombia included, in tackling the narcotics underworld is not working (see ‘Dealing with the Dealers’: http://bit.ly/NXGLEl). 

Calls for a new front in this war, however, are gathering pace, not least in Latin America (Santos himself has spoken of the need for a new approach), a land that knows more about this issue than most. 

Take the illegal drugs trade out of subversives’ hands and their power and wealth are greatly reduced. In fact, for most underworld operators, their raison d’etre practically disappears.

So while there will be much focus on the political manoeuvring in the upcoming dialogue between the Colombian government and Farc (with the ELN, the country’s second-largest rebel group, indicating it also wants to be part of this process) the weight afforded to the drugs issue will be interesting to see.**

You can only ignore the white powdered elephant in the room for so long before it starts blowing in your face.

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* Farc stands for Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia or Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia in English.
** ELN stands for Ejército de Liberación Nacional or National Liberation Army in English.

For another article on a related theme, see: ‘Dangerous Colombia Part II’ http://bit.ly/OyCBRS