Conservative Colombia left in the cold — for now

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

So the last bastion of conservatism and right-wing populism in Latin America has fallen. Colombia has chosen a leftist president for the first time in its history.

A new dawn for Colombia? Gustavo Petro and Francia Marquéz celebrate their historic election win. (Photo from Facebook.)

The rains that fell incessantly on the capital city, Bogotá, as the results flooded in on Sunday 19 June were most likely viewed as cleansing waters from the heavens for supporters of now president-elect Gustavo Petro. Indeed, in a tweet, he did put the victory down to 'God and the citizens and their history (or story).'

New Colombia

For those who loathe the former rebel — and there are many in that category — the dreary weather must have felt like pathetic fallacy, heralding a decadent, possibly very unstable era.

In fairness, both Petro and the surprise-package challenger in this run-off contest, 77-year-old Rodolfo Hernández who ran on a strong anti-corruption ticket, were representing a change of sorts. Hernández — or the more affectionate Rodolfo as he goes by — was hardly mentioned as a serious contender a month or so out from the first election on 29 May.

His social media campaigning was Trumpesque, making particular use of TikTok. The plan for the former mayor of Bucaramanga appeared to be, 'don't give too much away and just say what many want to hear'. It nearly produced the hoped-for effect.

Petro, on the other hand, has been in the national political limelight for quite some time. Alongside his highly divisive guerilla involvement in the 1970s and '80s, he was elected to Colombia's lower house of Congress in 2002, became a senator in 2006 and won the Bogotá mayor's office in 2012. He also previously ran for president in 2010 and 2018.

'A taxi driver who voted for the winner told me it was a case of opting for the least-bad candidate. Or, to borrow from a saying in these parts, to avoid going from Guatemala to Guatepeor.'

This familiarity may have actually been a significant factor in getting Petro over the line this time. The loose-cannon nature of Rodolfo that displayed itself on numerous occasions worked to his rival's advantage.

As a far-from-euphoric taxi driver who voted for the winner told me, it was a case of opting for the least-bad candidate. Or, to borrow from a saying in these parts, to avoid going from Guatemala to Guatepeor — from bad to worse, basically.

Petrograd

The concerns of those against Petro are in relation to what is seen as his socialist agenda. 'He'll turn Colombia into another Venezuela', that's the common mantra.

A dramatic disruptor in the mould of Hugo Chávez, he is unlikely to be, however. Yes, he and, to an even greater extent, his vice president, the Afro-Colombian environmentalist and human-rights activist Francia Marquéz, represent something quite removed from those of the old Conservative/Liberal heritage who have dominated these offices before.

Yet, the idea that they'll tear down the existing state structures and construct an entirely new system seems somewhat farfetched.

The term, which begins on 07 August, is, after all, limited to four years with reelection constitutionally prohibited. What an administration with a potentially radical programme — and much to do with it — can achieve in such a timeframe in a rather legalistic country is open to debate.

Thus, paving the way for a successor will most likely be a high priority. The 'Petro Plan' is going to need more than four years to deal with the likes of deep-rooted inequality, to name just one of the country's many ills.

As outgoing President Iván Duque discovered in 2021 with his tax-reform proposals — a perennial problem here — opposition in Colombia can be fierce and bring together disparate sections of society.

Mentioning Duque, when he hands over the reins to Petro he'll have just turned 46. One gets the feeling, however, that he'll be happy to end his career in Colombian politics when he vacates Casa de Nariño, unlike his mentor, the president from 2002 to 2010, Álvaro Uribe.

Whatever lies in store for Duque, these next four years for Colombia are certainly set to be intriguing.

While many thought it would never happen, Petro's big moment has arrived. For sure, he'll face many obstacles as, it would appear, about half the country won't want him to succeed, some of whom wield considerable power in various influential spheres.

Yet, for the other half, he is the president they have been waiting for to make what they see as the necessary changes to finally improve their lot.

It's now time to deliver, Presidente Petro. Your enemies aren't willing to stay in the cold for long.
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Listen to Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast here.

Facebook: Wrong Way Corrigan — The Blog & IQuiz "The Bogotá Pub Quiz".

Colombia's aggressive-driver mentality

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

A Venezuelan friend once told me of a saying in her country: 'The Colombian can never lose.'

This seems to have come, for the most part, from the days when Venezuela was the ostensibly richer, more Western-leaning nation while Colombia was largely viewed as a violent backwater from which many of its citizens found refuge with the neighbours to the east.

Road Rage Republic: This Bogotá highway may look relatively calm but looks can be deceiving.

Sore losers

The rather desperate Colombians who did business with and settled in Venezuela couldn't be wholly trusted. They were always trying to get one over their better-off counterparts in the brother country (or perhaps that should be sibling country these days, lest one offend). So the story went anyway.

Needless to say, there's a lot of generalising in such a viewpoint. As Venezuelans — many of whom are quite desperate — living in Colombia today know only too well, it just takes a few bad types to see the whole group tarred with the same brush.

What's more, not wanting to lose, doing one's best to avoid defeat, is in many ways a rather good trait to have. Very often, if one doesn't stand up for oneself, he/she will be trampled upon.

It must also be noted that some people, simply by virtue of where they were born, start off in life with distinct disadvantages compared to others. They have a lot more obstacles to overcome to get to what one could call a break-even line if we imagine one exists (such comparisons are, though, fraught with complications; there are many variables at play).

'With the merest break in oncoming traffic, they'll overtake as many cars as possible, safe in the knowledge that they'll be able to force their way back into line when the need arises.'

That notwithstanding, all of us, regardless of our situation, suffer losses at some stage in life. How we deal with these setbacks tends to say a lot about our character.

Not only that but in our interconnected, interdependent society, there are certain malignant moments when the greater-good option is to accept our predicament. Wait it out until more favourable conditions present themselves. To do otherwise is not only selfish but it can also endanger one's own life and that of others.

Alas, human anxiousness to get ahead at all costs can override such judgement — if it exists in the first place that is.

Maniac motorists

Coming back to the 'Colombian can never lose' idea and, I'll add, 'to heck with everyone else', one place where it can be said this does exist without being accused of wild generalising is on the roads.

I've written previously about how otherwise kind, mild-mannered locals here turn into complete lunatics when they get behind the wheel (see https://wwcorrigan.blogspot.com/2014/11/como-conduzco-er-not-very-well.html).

Observing this behaviour as a passenger is one thing — frightening as it often can be — but actually entering this high-stakes race as a driver allows one to get a better understanding of the maniac-motorist mindset.

For that idea, think of those rather fatuous Fast and Furious movies — appropriately enough, if you happen to find yourself on a bus with TV screens in Colombia, it's practically guaranteed that a Fast and Furious flick will be shown.

More specifically, the mentality is 'not an inch'. That is, if one leaves the slightest space between vehicles, it will be exploited.

Even in a long line of barely moving motors, many drivers believe that their time is all that matters. With the merest break in oncoming traffic, they'll overtake as many cars as possible, safe in the knowledge that they'll be able to force their way back into line when the need arises. (Such utter contempt for fellow humans can also be seen in queues at supermarkets and such like.)

In a futile effort to combat this, tailgating is the norm — a vicious circle of sorts. Gradually reducing speed when there's a red light or slower vehicles ahead appears to be frowned upon. Frantic breaking is what's expected. When you mix that in with an apparent inability to go through the gears, it's little wonder cars seem to need more servicing here compared to other places.

So, whilst the Colombian may think that he is "winning" by driving in such a manner, he's actually losing. Short-term gain, long-term loss. It's a phrase that sums up many practices in these parts.

Some awareness of others' needs, plus a bit of empathy, wouldn't go astray. Indeed, it could be the road to fewer loses and more wins for all interested parties. It's certainly worth attempting to navigate at least.
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Listen to Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast here.

Facebook: Wrong Way Corrigan — The Blog & IQuiz "The Bogotá Pub Quiz".

Colombia decides: Go with Gutiérrez or plump for Petro?

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

In just over a month, 29 May 2022 to be precise, Colombians go to the polls to elect their next president.

In the left corner, Gustavo Petro. And in the right-ish corner, Federico "Fico" Gutiérrez. (Photos from https://www.facebook.com/gustavopetrourrego/photos/ & https://federicogutierrez.com/.) 

Fico fights back

There are two things that we can take as virtually certain at this stage. One is that the country's next leader will be a man. The other is that this man won't be declared the winner on 29 May.

The reason for the latter is that for a candidate to win the presidency in the first round, he/she needs more than 50 per cent of the overall valid votes cast. With eight runners currently in the field for the nation's top job and polls showing no runaway favourite, it's pretty much certain a run-off will be needed between the top two candidates.

That head-to-head — barring some dramatic game-changer in the coming weeks — will be between former Bogotá mayor and runner-up in the 2018 presidential election, Gustavo Petro, and Federico "Fico" Gutiérrez, former mayor of Colombia's second city, Medellín.

Opinion polls have shown the leftist Petro with a relatively consistent lead throughout for some time now. Indeed, with a split centre/centre-right vote in round one — that there is no official candidate from the party of the still popular yet divisive former president, Álvaro Uribe, the man who helped propel outgoing president Iván Duque to victory, is a factor here — it seems safe to assume the one-time guerrilla will win the first round but fall somewhat short of the magic number to obviate a second day out.

'All this has to be balanced against the idea that a leftist, former guerrilla becoming Colombia's president takes the cherished sweetness out of the morning coffee of many citizens.'

Thus, similar to 2018 (see my post from that year, Right you are Colombia, for background), the key question is, where will the votes from the losing candidates in round one go in round two?

Most observers, backed up by polling — polls do tend to be reliable in Colombia — suggest Gutiérrez (I'm loath to call him by the affectionate "Fico" monicker) will take the lion's share. This may be enough to get him over the line but it looks set to be very close. (Do note that traditionally conservative Colombia has never returned what one may consider a genuine leftist candidate.)

The country's electoral system does also allow for a valid protest/blank vote, 'voto en blanco' (see https://wwcorrigan.blogspot.com/2018/02/colombia-vote-ve-blanco-for-real-change.html). In the 2018 run-off, this took 4.2 per cent of the overall votes, an increase of three percentage points from that year's first round. In one opinion poll in March this year, 16 per cent of respondents said they would vote blank. With that in mind, this phantom candidate may play a decisive role this time.

A turnout for Petro?

Another important factor is turnout. It hovered around 54 per cent in both rounds in 2018, a rather high figure compared to all the other presidential elections this century. As a reference, turnout for this year's congressional elections in March was just over 47 per cent of registered voters, about 1.5 percentage points lower than the 2018 figure.

If turnout increases for this year's presidential election — the various controversies with voter registration in Colombia aside — and we guesstimate that this means a greater participation of younger voters, the belief is that this would be a positive for Petro.

All this has to be balanced against the idea that a leftist and former guerrilla becoming Colombia's president takes the cherished sweetness out of the morning coffee of a not-insignificant number of citizens.

Even the slightest suggestion of something socialist sees many people point to the east and the ongoing mess that is neighbouring Venezuela.

That aside, and while Petro's mayorship of Bogotá was not without its ideological battles (see https://wwcorrigan.blogspot.com/2012/12/petrograd-colombias-new-capital.html & https://blogs.eltiempo.com/wrong-way-corrigan/2014/01/24/ordonez-petro-et-al-fiddle-while-bogota-continues-to-burn/), one finds it hard to envisage a Petro presidency turning the country into the next Venezuela.

Brother countries they may be but the overall more conservative nature of Colombia means it is unlikely radical social change will occur here akin to what we've seen in Venezuela over the last twenty years. What's more, Gustavo Petro is no Hugo Chávez Frías.

Indeed, it could be argued that the most radical departure Colombians could take in this presidential election would be if voto en blanco won the day.

That won't happen. So, as a largely independent observer, if I was forced at this stage to put some of my hard-earned pesos on the outcome, I'd go with Gutiérrez. Very hesitantly, that is.
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Listen to Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast here.

Facebook: Wrong Way Corrigan — The Blog & IQuiz "The Bogotá Pub Quiz".

 

Cosying up to Cúcuta

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

Considering Cúcuta is my most-visited Colombian city — with Bogotá being home — it's been a bit of an oversight that I've never written a dedicated piece about the Norte de Santander capital.

Cúcuta's Parque Santander.

Anytime ladies

The thing is, as much as I find the place welcoming and enjoyable, if a tad chaotic (hey, it's a Latin American city after all), Cúcuta has never been the actual destination in all the trips that have seen me spend time there.

Bordering Venezuela on Colombia's eastern frontier, the first time I visited was back in early 2012, using it as a pitstop returning from a less-than-inspiring maiden visa run to the neighbours. (Let's just say I've never been bothered about going back to Maracaibo — first impressions and all that — as much as I now have a far more positive opinion of Venezuela.)

In fact, all of my numerous stopovers in Cúcuta have been the result of visa runs. Why seek Colombian residency when one can go on an adventure every year or so? My annual visa/cédula payment does also double up as my tax contribution. The gift that keeps on giving.

What's more, posting stories about lesser-visited, "crazy" Venezuela has always seemed more appealing, more inclined to get those much sought-after clicks. 

Thus, I've tended to neglect to recount my "tamer" Cúcuta experiences. We'll right that 'Wrong Way' now, especially considering that I wasn't actually allowed to cross into Venezuela this time, despite getting my exit stamp from Colombia — 48 hours in no man's land of sorts, ask for details in the comments!

'Thou shalt not pass.' As close as I got to Venezuela this time.

The average traveller will most likely take the bus to Cúcuta — flights are far cheaper today than they were years ago thanks to the arrival of low-cost carriers to the region but they usually only compete with bus prices if you buy well in advance. 

If one isn't on a tight schedule, road travel allows for much more (affordable) flexibility. (For the record, a one-way bus ticket with Omega cost me 80,000 pesos.)

'There's something about the hustle and bustle from the terminal to Parque Santander — no, I don't mean the sex trade, I'm referring to the commercial and mild revelling activity — that has an enticing energy to it.'

From Bogotá, the winding 16-hour plus spin passes through some impressive páramos — one would miss out on those on a flight. In the next few years, that journey time should decrease somewhat with some major road infrastructure works in progress on the Cúcuta end.

As is often the case in these parts, the least attractive side of the city is what greets you first.

For about half of the 1.2 km walk from the bus terminal to the picturesque, well-kept city centre at Parque Santander, the route is lined with, well, not exactly ladies of the night, but ladies of any time of the day or night.

From memory, this has been so since I first visited but I don't think I'm wrong in saying that it's more intense these days, somewhat similar to what I witnessed in Medellín in late 2019. Indeed, it wouldn't surprise me if Cúcuta was the per capita prostitute capital of Colombia.

One big reason for this is the humanitarian crisis next door in Venezuela. Cúcuta is often the first and only port of call for a number of desperate individuals who cross over illegally.

Jesus is the way, the truth and the light. He's up there, somewhere.

While aesthetically unpleasing and unsettling for those of us of a more reserved nature in sexual matters, there is nothing really threatening about it.

In fact, it's the part of town I've always stayed in. The reason being that — wait for it — it's where you get the cheaper hotels. 

When all you need is a bed, bathroom facilities and WiFi, you can't go too wrong with 15,000 pesos per night. Some might say one is taking a security risk in such places. Perhaps so, but that hasn't been my experience.

A view with Jesus

In terms of what to do there, the short answer is, 'not a lot'. Living in Bogotá, my escapes from the capital usually involve going to quieter retreats. Cúcuta is certainly not that.

However, there's something about the hustle and bustle from the terminal to Parque Santander — no, I don't mean the sex trade, I'm referring to the commerce and mild revelling — that has an enticing energy to it.

Whether it's sipping on a cheap and cheerful borojó fruit smoothie — a highly refreshing beverage in heat of over 30 degrees Celsius — from one of the ubiquitous street vendors or munching on an equally cheap and cheerful papa rellena (a deep-fried, mashed-potato pastry stuffed with egg, chicken or minced meat) from the equally ubiquitous fast-food carts as you watch people go about their business, the lively vibe makes one feel alive.

The pace is far more relaxed around the city's standout attraction, a statue of Christ the King (Cristo Rey) perched on a hill to the south of the centre. Think of it as a miniature version of Rio de Janeiro's Christ the Redeemer. 

While in situ since the late 1940s, the monument and immediate surrounds, like Cúcuta in generally over the last decade, have been refurbished in recent years.

Religious views. The picturesque Iglesia del Perpetuo Socorro.

The viewpoint now has a cleaner, more welcoming feel to it. Just don't expect to watch the sunrise from there. Apparently, it's only open to the public from 10 am. I arrived at 9.40 and had to wait, although the security guy did let me pass at 9.50. What a rebel. 

I'm not sure what time it closes, but one would like to think it's after sunset, which is always around 6 pm in these parts. By the way, there is no entrance fee, it's free thankfully.

In general, the southern part of the city appears more tranquil, mostly residential as it is.

Speaking of slower-paced living, I did get the chance to briefly take in the nearby town of Chinácota, about an hour's bus drive south of Cúcuta. At 1,175 metres above sea level, it's slightly fresher than the at-times stifling heat in Cúcuta, which is about 800 metres lower.  

By all accounts, Chinácota is a popular weekend escape for Cúcuta residents. From my 24-hour stint there, I can see why. Next time I'll make it my business to spend a little more time in the town.

For if there has been one constant throughout my years in Colombia, it's that a trip to Cúcuta is never too far away. And that's perfectly fine with me.
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Listen to Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast here.

Facebook: Wrong Way Corrigan — The Blog & IQuiz "The Bogotá Pub Quiz".

Santandercito, keeping the satiated dullness at bay

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

I've stated previously how I'm not at all averse to routine, as long as I feel it's not too detrimental to my health and well-being.

Bogotá's Santandercito: Rough and ready.

Downwardly mobile

On the other hand, I've also let it be known that a monotonous 8-6 gig is not for me. While I might be traversing the same physical ground on a daily basis — something most of the world has been forced to do for much of the last 16 months — the important thing is that there's an amount of variety to what I'm doing.

Of course, 'being my own boss', as I pretty much am these days, means I put as much variety into what I do as I see fit, constrained both financially and legally as we all are to varying degrees.

Throughout the pandemic, however, 'spicing up one's life' has been rather difficult. It may be one explanation as to why I've found myself being pulled right into Bogotá barrio living. That is, not just socialising in my stomping ground of Santandercito but actually taking up residence there.

Yes, my living quarters are far from ideal. And lest people say 'you get what you pay for, tight-fisted Corrigan', I'm forking out the most I've ever had to for accommodation during my almost ten years in Bogotá.

'A period of small-town living might be the answer to some issues I've been largely ignoring to address. Mentally recharge and evaluate my options from, quite literally, a different viewpoint.'

My main bugbears are a lack of natural light entering and the noise from above. I'm on the ground floor while the landlady and her extended family occupy the other two floors. A two-metre squared open space from the plastic roof down projects some light into my living space. 

It also, unfortunately, ensures I hear all the chattering and regular shouting from above as if I were actually in the same room as my noisy neighbours. Kids, who'd have 'em, eh?

Unsettling issues

Some say that for the rent I pay I could find something better. In Bogotá, for a place that's largely independent and contract-free, I'm not so sure. I might find an apartment with better natural lighting but it would probably be lacking in something else. I've moved around the city enough to know that's it hard to get past mediocrity, such is life.  

That aside, there's a certain energy on the streets that I feed off. Even in the "strictest" days of coronavirus-containment measures, there was a bit of welcome life about the place.

Now, as a resident, I get a mild buzz wandering through the barrio and greeting the various folk I know. Some are just familiar faces, no more than acquaintances, others are people I regard as good friends.

To borrow from the renowned clinical psychologist and best-selling author Jordan B. Peterson, my opting to take up residence here could be linked to a shunning of the 'satiated dullness' of a comfortable existence. (Peterson said this in relation to Fyodor Dostoevsky's critique of the socialist utopia, so a rather different context. Having said that, I found nothing dull about Venezuela's, um, "socialist utopia". Also, I'm not so sure how and where I could find a comfortable existence these days.)

It must be noted, though, the location hasn't that much to do with living comfortably or not, financially speaking in any case.

Nonetheless, as Bogotá is due to start roaring again like it did pre-pandemic, a more relaxed existence could be found outside the metropolis. For I can't say that I'm currently in Bogotá for the money really. Far from it. Indeed, it could be said the small amount I earn is offset by a somewhat hedonistic lifestyle, at times anyway.

A period of small-town living might be the answer to some issues I've been largely ignoring to address. Mentally recharge, evaluate my options from, quite literally, a different viewpoint, before facing into another stay-or-go dilemma with a visa expiry date only months away.

There really never is a dull moment in this unsettled existence, is there?
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Listen to Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast here.

Facebook: Wrong Way Corrigan — The Blog & IQuiz "The Bogotá Pub Quiz".

Colombia: A system failure

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

The chaotic times Colombia is experiencing bring to mind just how inflexible a presidential system can be.

Back me or sack me

Faced with such a crisis in a parliamentary democracy, a motion of no confidence would most likely be tabled against the prime minister. 

If there was enough dissent in government ranks, the ruling party could lose such a vote. That would trigger, barring a new arrangement amongst the parties in parliament to choose a new premier, an election.

Widespread protests are ongoing in Colombia.

Either that or the prime minister, in a put-up-or-shut-up cry to the electorate, could call an election of his/her own accord. (In the Irish system, this would need to be signed off on by the largely ceremonial president, something that is normally just a matter of course.)

Think of Boris Johnson's sweeping victory in the UK's December 2019 general election. Having won the support of his party to take over as PM from Theresa May with a more hard-line Brexit position, he put it all on the line and went to the country in a bid to strengthen his mandate. 

It worked, quite stunningly. The many loud, influential voices against the Conservative leader had to grudgingly accept that the British electorate backed Boris.

Of the various demands from Colombia's protesters, some are calling for the resignation of President Iván Duque. As I mentioned in my previous post, with an election for a new head of state just 12 months away, it's unlikely in the extreme that this will happen.

However, I wonder if Duque right now wishes he was a prime minister in a parliamentary system where he could call a snap election. 

It would certainly put to the test the belief, particularly seen in international media, that the current protests are widely supported. (I must add, while Duque's own popularity appears on the floor, his party, Centro Democrático, still has a solid support base. If we can call the Centro Democrático the party in power, the opposition is far from united — it's quite a mixed bag.)

My take on it, from my humble estrato dos abode in the far north of Bogotá, is a little more nuanced.

Of course the many struggling to make ends meet want to see their lot improve. Don't we all? The killing of innocent protesters by state forces is also wholly unacceptable. Most Colombians would appear to agree that some sort of police reform is badly needed.

However, as I've written oft-times before, the more radical, mostly younger forces that appear to make up the majority of the protesters aren't exactly lovingly embraced by your average barrio-popular resident.

Unsurprisingly, there is a certain arrogance amongst the leftist, university-attending protesters towards those not of their ilk. 'The uneducated idiots don't know what's good for them' is a regular refrain.

'Is it a case that the majority of Colombians feel they're somewhere in the middle and relatively content with that?'

It's a standard line of attack by those on the left. It rarely works. In fact, it's often counterproductive.

Who are these "educated" folk to say that the construction worker or housecleaner doesn't know what he/she wants?

Colombians don't have to look too far to find an example of what can go horribly wrong when a country takes a hard turn to the left based on promises to end corruption and bring about a better life for all. Venezuela, anyone?

OK, some of you will say I'm being dramatic here. That what the protesters are really calling for is simply a fairer system, a reduction in inequality, not a version of Hugo Chávez Frías' socialism for the 21st century.

The price of fairness

In terms of some of the standout demands on the protesters' list — a guaranteed one month's minimum wage for those officially living in poverty and no university tuition fees — it's true that we're not talking about unrealistic proposals when viewed from an international perspective. 

In fact, President Duque has already announced the introduction of free, temporary for the moment albeit, public higher education for students from the lowest three strata (for a brief introduction to the strata system, see https://wwcorrigan.blogspot.com/2014/10/end-of-strata-republic.html).

All such measures, to state the obvious, must be paid for somehow. In Ireland, my home country, a relatively generous social welfare system and "free" third-level education for undergraduates is financed by redistributing wealth through what one might call "progressive" taxes. 

There are always the complaints that the richest in society aren't contributing enough and, on the other extreme, some people are just scrounging off the state.

Colombia, I'm guessing, would have to do something similar in terms of taxation. What might worry some who consider themselves to be just making ends meet, however, is that they would be asked to contribute more than they currently are to fund an expanded social welfare state. In other words, in a Colombian context, they're not as poor as they think they are.

In a country where informal, unregulated employment and illegality — officially uncontrolled and outlawed by the state but unofficially approved — are commonplace and "suffice" for many involved in such activities, rocking the system is a risk they are reluctant to take.

It remains to be seen if the proposals to significantly expand Colombia's welfare state make any real headway. By their very nature, they would require more government control in a country where there is much mistrust of state institutions. Colombia, do remember, tends to move to a conservative, raw-capitalist beat.

Without completely tearing down the house, in common with the social-democratic countries in Northern Europe, those looking for wholesale changes might find that a parliamentary system is the best vehicle to implement them.

They might also find, though, that they haven't as much support as they may believe they have.

No system is perfect. Each one has its losers and winners. Is it a case that the majority of Colombians feel they're somewhere in the middle and relatively content with that? 

On the other hand, there is the nothing-ventured-nothing-gained argument. Deciphering the amount of change needed, or not as the case may be, is a delicate balance.

Future elections, the candidates that go forward and the manifestos they present will give us some indication of where 'el pueblo colombiano' stands on all this.
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Listen to Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast here.

Facebook: Wrong Way Corrigan — The Blog & IQuiz "The Bogotá Pub Quiz".

 

2021: Reasons to be fearful

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

New year, new hope. And after the stagnation that was 2020 for many — save for the comfortable, virtue-signalling folk who have seen their lot actually improve — there appears to be more of a focus than usual on the positives that lie in store for us over the next 12 months.

Uribe, mi presidente. (Image from Facebook.)

Nonetheless, positivity is one thing, reality another — we'll leave to one side the postmodernist view on what is real and what isn't, only to say that when you're dead, you're dead. So while we'll do our best to carry on regardless, here are some reasons to be less than optimistic that 2021 will be brighter than 2020.

Covid chaos

Let's start with the most obvious. Regardless of where you stand on the efficacy of lockdowns and the true severity of coronavirus (in a recent interview, the historian Niall Ferguson noted how in terms of lethality the disease isn't even in the top 25 of global pandemics humanity has suffered), the closedown-to-suppress-the-virus approach has been adopted by many countries.

For sure, with vaccines now on the scene, hopes are high in richer nations that they'll be able to get on top of the situation in the first six months of this year or so.

However, considering the way our decision-makers and much of the media have become completely engrossed in every detail of this virus and its modus operandi to the detriment of pretty much all other areas of life, those who hope that by this time next year we'll be in AC (After Coronavirus) times need a reality check.

'Closer to Colombia, strong rhetoric against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has the potential to morph into something more than mere words.'

What's more, emerging-market countries, such as here in Colombia, look set to be well behind the curve in any vaccine bounce. 

By going along with the richer nations' moment of crisis in their otherwise comfortable existence, in following the lead of said richer nations and neglecting other, arguably more serious problems, developing countries will be cast further adrift. Inequality will widen, not only between nations but within them as well.

One final covid "fear" is the continuation of Colombian President Iván Duque's cringeworthy, quite condescending evening TV addresses. Mercifully, they are easily avoidable. I'm clearly not the only one who has had enough. The owner of one of my panadería offices changes channel as soon as El Presidente comes on.

Biden bombs

Much of the world will breathe a sigh of relief when US President Donald J. Trump vacates the White House on 20 January. In his place comes a veteran establishment figure, a man who many view as a safe pair of hands, Democrat Joe Biden.

The thing is, after four years of a president who put America (the United States part of it, that is) first, who largely preferred isolationism rather than internationalism, a Biden administration will look to reassert Washington's influence on the global stage. How that manifests itself over the next few years will be fascinating to watch, from a safe distance that is, if one can be found.

OK, another flare-up in the Middle East doesn't exactly usher in Armageddon, but an outwardly bullish, confident China is sure to lay down the gauntlet to what it must perceive as a weak, disjointed rival.

Closer to Colombia, strong rhetoric against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — a China ally of sorts — has the potential to morph into something more than mere words. In fact, the centrist faction of the Democratic Party might see it as a way to show it's not being highjacked by the left, as well as adhering to its stated global clampdown on corruption.

In addition, "corrective" action against Caracas would do no harm at all in helping to boost support among certain Hispanic voters who loathe the socialist wing hovering in the USA's blue corner.

And attacking fellow human beings is more box office than fighting a microscopic, common enemy of mankind.

Uribe presente, es mi presidente

One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. So while large swathes of the Colombian electorate will be thrilled with the prospect of an Uribe running for the presidency next year, many will be filled with dread.

Reports in late 2020 suggested that Tomás Uribe, son of former president, the divisive Álvaro Uribe, was being sounded out by Centro Democrático officials to run for the country's top job.

By all accounts, it's a long shot — he's reputedly not keen — but if Colombia was to put an Uribe back in Casa de Nariño, it would open the door for old scores to be settled, à la US President George W. Bush finishing off some of his father George H.'s business.

In such a scenario, we may not need the US to instigate war with the neighbours to the east. The Uribes are coming for Chavismo in all its manifestations, abroad and at home.

Whatever transpires over the course of the next 12 months, it promises to be an exciting ride.
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Christening conservative Colombia

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

'I'm glad to see that all of the children being baptised today have been given saints' names.' 

That was the opinion of the priest who presided over a recent group christening that I attended in Bogotá's Verbenal neighbourhood.

'Do as I say, not as I do.'

Name of shame

The authoritarian, haughty man of the cloth — I thought the Catholic Church's foot soldiers were meant to act more humbly these days? — had been, um, pontificating about some of the more bizarre names people give their offspring nowadays (in between berating attendees, people who had paid good money for a service in which they were being talked down to, for glancing at their phones and allowing their children to wander about the outdoor gathering).

Apparently, so Padre Wilson informed us, somebody was christened Covid of late. I agree with him on the silliness of that one — although if he (or she, I'm not sure) goes on to hold the world to ransom despite being quite a weak individual all things considered, well then it will be an apt name.

That aside, the priest's line may help to explain why Colombians tend to be rather conservative when it comes to naming their children. 

With the odd exception, something we discussed in a Bogotá Nights episode, name-giving here follows very traditional lines. In contrast, one only needs to look at neighbouring Venezuela to find a more, let's say adventurous attitude to this whole area.

Colombia's conservative approach fits in nicely with the nation's overall psyche. As I've touched on before, someone who might be seen as a leftist liberal in these parts would be considered as being on the other side of the political spectrum in many other countries.

'Listening to Padre Wilson belittle the congregation at the baptism was like a primary school teacher addressing unruly yet naive pupils.'

What's more, there is often unquestioning respect for figures of authority. Like Ireland up until a couple of generations ago, what the Catholic Church says here carries considerable weight, outside of affairs in the bedroom that is.

Toe the line

Listening to Padre Wilson belittle the congregation at the baptism was like a primary school teacher addressing unruly yet naive pupils. 'Follow my lead and you'll be saved, little ones.'

With heads bowed in shame, the flock accepted its shortcomings. Father knows best. (And to underscore this superiority, the seven families in attendance, each having already paid for the christening, were encouraged to hand over more cash when the collection basket was passed around. Great work if you can get it.)

Of course, actions speak louder than words and all that. It's not like the majority of Colombians are pious Christians, even if they are still genuine believers in Christ. It's more a case that the less taxing, what we could call more superficial elements of the Church's teachings are, um, religiously followed. With that, very few seem willing to go against the power-wielders, even if it may be in their interests to do so.

On a broader societal level, every now and again we'll have protest movements. At times it even feels like something might change. Yet with the same energy and speed with which they start, they also peter out. The reality is that there seems little genuine enthusiasm to alter the status quo, despite what might be said.

Compliant, conservative Colombia dominates. Change is fraught with danger. It's best not to do it.

Remember, it's not just the crazy names that you risk importing from Venezuela. It might start innocently enough with a Geoberty or a Rolangeli or the like, but where would it all end? Father knows best indeed.
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Niall Ferguson: 'Colombia didn't have the capacity to do East Asia's smart coronavirus policies'

Renowned historian and author Niall Ferguson believes Colombia had little option but to impose what he refers to as the 'pretty blunt instrument' of a lockdown for dealing with coronavirus.

Professor Niall Ferguson chats to Wrong Way's Colombia Cast.

Speaking to Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast (recorded on 19 June) Professor Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, revealed Colombian government officials contacted him for advice on dealing with the pandemic.

'It became clear (in conversation with government officials) that Colombia didn't really have the capacity to do the smart policies of some East Asian countries in tackling coronavirus and therefore had to rely on cruder policies,' he said.

While he highlighted the relatively good performance of the authorities here in dealing with the health crisis in contrast to other South American countries such as Brazil, Chile and Ecuador, he warned that the data suggest Colombia will be in a 'worse position four weeks from now.'

'It won't be the first time a pandemic has had a very severe impact on South America,' he explained. 'The big ones of 1918/19 and 1957/58 hit Latin America very hard indeed and there's a sense this history is repeating itself. The explanation for this lies in the fact that the region has big cities with dense populations and rather poor public health infrastructure with wide inequalities.'

'Early detection, early action. If that had happened in Colombia in January people wouldn't now be locked in their homes and the economy wouldn't be in the tank.'

Ferguson, author of a number of influential books including The Square and the Tower, Civilization: The West and the Rest and Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World, did admit he doesn't know 'what good option there is for Colombia in tackling coronavirus.'

He did, however, offer this advice for the next pandemic which 'will come and could be much worse':

'There's no real reason why Colombia should not be able to do testing and contact tracing if it does it early enough. Most people have mobile phones and a significant amount have smartphones ... Early detection, early action, that way you avoid lockdowns. If that had happened in Colombia in January people wouldn't now be locked in their homes and the economy wouldn't be in the tank.'

'In Venezuela, you have a regime that is as destructive as any that we've seen in the world in the last 50 years ... It is a criminal racket ... Under those circumstances, it seems kind of a no-brainer to do something to tip the scales in favour of the democratic opposition.'

As regards the temptation for Colombia's electorate to seek comfort in extreme politics in the years to come as it deals with the coronavirus fallout, he said 'the key is to make sure that the range of political options is not too wide. As soon as you have the populism of the left or the populism of the right offering their quick fixes you risk destroying either the economy, which is what the left specialises in, or destroying the free, open society which is what the far-right tends to do.'

Speaking in relation to the possibility of direct US military intervention in Venezuela, the Scottish-born American citizen called the Maduro administration 'a criminal racket' and, as such, 'it seems kind of a no-brainer to do something to tip the scales in favour of the democratic opposition.'

In a wide-ranging interview, Ferguson also talked about the 'dithering response' of the US and the UK to coronavirus, the problems with and unintended consequences of the Black Lives Matter movement, today's 'cancel culture' and counterfactual history in relation to Colombia and colonisation.

Listen to the Wrong Way's Colombia Cast interview with Niall Ferguson in full here, on Spotify or at Apple Podcasts. (Also on YouTube at https://youtu.be/8r06Lv6sKC8?si=70up0zGlUSoB0zyF.)
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Listen to Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast here.

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Colombia's and Ireland's eastern troubles

Making comparisons between Colombia and Ireland is about as useful an exercise as sweeping leaves in a hurricane. 

Even where there are similarities, something previously touched on by this blog, their day-to-day relevance would seem fairly minuscule. Colombian-Irish ties, while apparently growing, are still pretty weak.

Colombia and Ireland: Dealing with 'nasty' neighbours.

Nonetheless, as an Irishman based in Colombia for the last eight years, becoming aware of these similarities has been rather interesting, insightful even.

While the posts referenced above made internal comparisons, here we're going to add an international dimension.

Nasty neighbour to the east

Basically — stick with us here — Venezuela could be seen as Britain, and that's not just because of its geographical position to Colombia's east. 

Historically, Venezuela was seen as the more advanced, organised and cosmopolitan country. In contrast, Colombia was (is) a violent backwater, insular and conservative. Friendly folk for sure but untrustworthy schemers of sorts. (See where we're going with this?)

A lot of the locals with any get-up-and-go did just that. They left. What's more, a not-insignificant number of them went to that more developed neighbour to the east for a better life. Well, either there or to the US.

"The political problems next door could see the old inferior nations return to their inglorious past."

However, over the last few years these violent backwaters, Colombia and Ireland, have found their mojos, of sorts, while the eastern neighbours appear to have hit the self-destruct button. 

Now, not only are those who had emigrated coming back but people from other countries are keen to give the current 'cool kids' a try, including many from the near east, reversing long-standing migration flows. (The influx of Venezuelans to Colombia needs no elaboration while there has been a significant rise in the number of Brits applying for Irish passports pre-Brexit).

Uncomfortable at the top

Added to this, of late, have been the neighbours' current political problems and the risk of contagion to the now, um, flourishing 'cool kids'. 

As the latter harbour men who have a proven track record at subversion, there is a belief that it will only take a little bit of instability to plunge them and their centre-right administrations right back into the bad old days of violence and economic decline. 

Of course, outside 'help' isn't a prerequisite for this but it can be an important catalyst.

The eastern guys, for their part, have leaders who seem hell-bent on getting their way or, as some view it, are being unfairly hindered from doing their job. 

Now, while a Jeremy Corbyn victory in the UK's December election would work wonders for this analogy from a left-right perspective, it's not completely necessary. 

Bungling Boris Johnson, while politically poles apart from Nicolás Maduro, fits the narrative here in so many other ways. For one, you've both men's penchant for putting their foot in it.

As the problems to the east show no signs of easing, there's a bit of schadenfreude on display in some quarters of the once inferior nations. 

However, looking down from a lofty position not only doesn't sit well with them but it also tends to be followed by a swift, painful comedown. 'Back in your place with you.'

When that comedown has well and truly landed, by their own doing or otherwise, assistance from the eastern neighbours will yet again be badly needed. After all, these countries have more in common than they may like to admit.
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Medellín's Plaza Putaero

Bienvenidos a Medellín - 'Bangkok light'. So ran the title of one of my earliest Google Blogger entries. 

I wrote it after spending a month in Colombia's second city where I worked in the Greek-owned Arcadia hostel in the gringo-infested Poblado neighbourhood, a somewhat exclusive party zone.

I'd grown frustrated at seeing the many ladies of the night in the area strutting their stuff, subtly as most did albeit. 

In that way, the Bangkok comparison may have been overstating it a bit — I did use 'light' all the same. The prostitution was more discreet but it was prostitution nonetheless. (Indeed, it could have been even subtler.)

Medellín's Plaza Botero: There's a bit more to it these days than just its iconic statues.

Missing Medellín

As a rather innocent country boy from the west of Ireland, it tainted my otherwise largely positive impression of Medellín, a city that has much more than just sex tourism going for it.

It would be wide of the mark to say it was because of this I had no desire to return there. It was more down to the fact that I live in bustling Bogotá, so when it has come to escaping its madness, I've opted for much smaller places to unwind.

Thus, a stronger reason than 'just because' was always needed to bring me back. That reason came in the form of a semi-business-related trip, flights paid for. OK, it was to the airport based in Rionegro, a city about a 40-minute drive from Medellín.

Yet, it is the airport that caters for most Medellín-bound passengers, so when I knew I'd be landing there the idea of a brief re-acquaintance after almost eight years with the Antioquia department capital was always on the cards.

"Unlike the Poblado prostitutes, these ones were not one bit discreet."

Incidentally, I did spend one night in Rionegro as it was there I had my business meeting. It seems a pleasant enough place with a well-kept main square, if a little pricey for the staples (read tienda beers in this instance; at 25,000 pesos for a quite decent hotel room, accommodation was reasonably priced, though).

With just over 24 hours in Medellín, to keep things simple plus a curiosity to see what my old employer's hostel was like after all these years, I decided to spend my one night in the aforementioned Arcadia.

As the bus from Rionegro dropped me close to the city centre, I took the opportunity to have a wander around there first before heading further south to Poblado. Get a feel for Medellín's 'raw' side — well, rawer compared to the leafy middle-class vibe around the hostel.

It was certainly lively in any case. There seemed a lot more going on than you'd normally get in Bogotá's historic centre. A big tourist attraction is the many Botero statues in the eponymous plaza.

Noisy public works aside, Plaza Botero was hiving with foreigners. Great for Medellín tourism.

Prostitution Plaza

The thing is, a good number of those foreigners were young ladies from neighbouring Venezuela. And they weren't there to get photos taken next to the large Botero works. Well, unless those statues were willing to pay them that is, if you get me.

I'm sure the many beautiful women offering their services there would much prefer it if that were the case, rather than having to get down and dirty with what often resemble real-life versions of Botero's oversized male sculptures. Needs must and all that, however.

In contrast to the subtle, nighttime manoeuvres of the Poblado prostitutes, in Plaza Botero they were anything but that. 

A fair-haired (what's left of it, that is) man walking alone, think of a moths-to-light scenario. "There's plenty of money in them there pockets", or whatever the equivalent expression is in Venezuelan Spanish.

That prostitution is happening in Medellín, sad for those who feel forced into doing it all the same, is not the issue here. It's the fact that it's so blatant in a very popular part of a city that prides itself on being one of the most progressive in Latin America.

Perhaps my visit this time coincided with a particularly promiscuous Friday afternoon on the not-so-free-love scene. However, with the hotels nearby readily set up for the trade, it seems it's standard practice these days.

Of course, there's nothing inherently wrong or illegal with it. I'm guessing, though, it's an image the city's tourism board doesn't want to portray. 

It's fair to say many visitors would find those much-maligned Pablo Escobar tours far less uncomfortable.
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Colombia's foreign press clampdown?

In previous posts I wrote about, or at least mentioned in passing, the visa issues I had in Colombia this year.

Indeed, the chief reason for my recent visit to Venezuela was down to being unable to renew my 'independent journalist' visa. (I am somewhat thankful to Colombia that it forced my hand and I was able to return to the 'brother country', despite all the pre-journey fears.)

Is there an official Colombian clampdown on independent journalists? (Image from web.)

While I wasn't actually denied the visa — the door is still open to get it — new requirements in relation to my journalist diploma made things much more awkward and time consuming than they had theretofore been.

Had it been my first visa request it wouldn't have been as disheartening a saga. "OK, these are the requirements and I have to follow them." However, I was going for my fifth, after which I would have been entitled to apply for residency, and that lasts for five years.

So considering the time and money I've invested here, that I'm now back at zero in terms of visa continuity is a little bit disappointing.

Now, it must be said I'm not terribly down about it. I'd been considering my future here anyway, before the visa complications started. In some ways it's been positive. Since my return from Venezuela I've been focusing on work areas more 'down my street', or what I think I should be doing in any case.

It remains to be seen whether this new, um, 'Wrong Way' results in my immediate future still being here in Colombia or it means moving on to pastures new. The next few weeks will tell a tale. Whatever the case, I'm relaxed. Things are happening.

Specifically in terms of the visa stumbling block, though, it never crossed my mind, not with any real belief anyway, that there were more, let's call them 'sinister forces' at work.
In fact, I still don't think there are.

However, it appears that a good number of foreigners in a similar position have had the same issue. So much so that the head of Colombia Reports is getting European diplomats and other international agencies to look into the matter.

Of course it is rather difficult to prove that there is a concerted effort from Colombia's La Cancillería — the department responsible for visas — to remove independent journalists from the country.

What's more, officialdom here is fully within its rights to change the visa requirements as it sees fit. From an Irish perspective for one, it's not like we have an open-door policy for the few Colombians who wish to make Ireland their home.

Personally, the idea that I was a 'target to take out' for La Cancillería is a little amusing, flattering even. As much as I'd like to think differently, this blog and the occasional other media groups I've collaborated with to write and talk about this country are unlikely to have caused much, if any, fuss amongst Colombia's powers that be.

For sure, there have been a few negative articles, but it's safe to assume they didn't set the alarm bells ringing. Hey it'd be great in a way if there was a 'Wrong Way Out' campaign. Alas, I haven't quite made it that 'big' yet.

This isn't to say that other journalists/reporters from here haven't been singled out. They may indeed have been. The most likely scenario, if there is something untoward at play, is that it's more of a general sweep, the idea being to cut down on these 'volatile' independent journalists/writers.

It will be interesting to see where Colombia Reports gets with its investigations in this regard. I'm guessing it will be a case of, 'Nothing to see here guys, move along.'

That being said, there are, unsurprisingly, some grey areas in the whole process.

Previously, so it went, with journalism being an unregulated profession no official qualifications had to be submitted with the application. It was all about proof of actual work.

Now however, as mentioned above, La Cancillería is demanding the translation and certification of the relevant qualifications — a long and relatively costly process.

This does beg the question for those going for an independent visa where they actually don't have a qualification to 'prove' their skills in what they're doing, what do they do?

For example, I have dabbled in a bit of acting, basic and ad hoc as it has been. So what if I were to apply for a visa as an actor? I don't have papers to say I am one, I just discovered I'm good at it and there is a demand for my services in the country (relax, it's a hypothetical scenario!).

Plus, of course, not all journalists, broadcasters or presenters have the qualifications in those specific fields. Some just fell into them by chance.

So you'd have to think there are allowances for such things.

Then again, in a country that tends to value the piece of paper over actual real-life ability, maybe not.

Perhaps they just want to let in those of a more academic disposition. Good at the theory — or as often happens in Colombia, with deep pockets — but not great in practice.

Talk the talk, but can't walk the walk. Good luck to them with that.
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