Crazy Copa América

It's fair enough to assume that most of us like at least a little stability in our lives. The comfort of knowing, barring absolute disasters, that you can rely on certain things.

Copa América: Embracing its unpredictability. (Image from Facebook.)

Even in the world of sport where stability, nay predictability, might not be what we always want, we do have certain bankers. 

You know, like in rugby where the All Blacks always win and in football where you can never write off the Germans. Sticking with the round-ball game — but something that is pretty much true of most sport — you also have the regularity of its main tournaments. The World Cup comes every four years, the same with the European Championships, on the even-numbered years between the global contest, as in this year.

Yet, as tends to be the wont in South America for many things, the Copa América arrives at any old time. It doesn't appear, or at least hasn't heretofore, to follow any plan. Well, if it does, it's not a straightforward one. (Maybe they're right on this one?)

Fair enough, this year's renewal, hot on the heels of Chile 2015, is marking the competition's centenary. Yet, it's not even being played on South American soil. No, it's taking place in the grand old US of A. 

At least it means that none of the Conmebol teams will have home advantage; but the USA will. It wouldn't exactly be the best of etiquette to throw a party in somebody else's gaff without inviting them, now would it?

Indeed, the venue choice has raised eyebrows among some of the participants, with Uruguay manager Óscar Washington Tabárez questioning the United States' suitability on this occasion, especially as games are going to be played all over the vast nation. His side, for example, will be travelling from west (Glendale) to east (Philadelphia) and back west (Santa Clara) again for their three group matches.

Whatever about the merits of this edition — the inclusion of six invitees, namely Costa Rica, Haiti, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama and hosts US, could be seen as weakening its credibility further — there is still a 'copa' to be won.

Looking at it from adopted-Colombian eyes, the competition gives José Pékerman's selection the opportunity to continue their unbeaten ways in competitive matches, having won two on the bounce in the World Cup qualifiers. It also represents a chance to erase the memories of a rather mediocre showing 12 months ago.

How far can Colombia go in the Copa this year? (Picture from Facebook.)

Their game with the United States on 03 June gets the tournament under way. Home advantage is usually a big help in the Copa América, but considering it is not the States' 'baby' so to speak, Colombia might be just that little more up for it (although the bookmakers, perhaps tellingly, see it differently).

A result in that one could set them up for a bit of a run, as Paraguay should be dispatched and Costa Rica, as one of the invited nations, mightn't be overly pushed. Yet making positive predictions about Colombia, as last year showed, is risky business.

That aside, it's likely the winner will come from one of South America's heavyweights. Take your pick from Argentina, Brazil, Chile or Uruguay (yep, we're going all out there). We'll be, um, 'patriotic' and include Colombia as well, but with a semi-final against Argentina, Chile or Uruguay on the cards should they get that far, making the decider might be just beyond them.

But hey, whatever the outcome, at least the Colombian team will have a few weeks in what is a second home for most of their fellow countrymen. Plus, there's always another Copa not too far away.
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"Put the 'rucking' rugby on, ¡por favor!"

The bars/tiendas are stocking up. Replica jerseys of the competing nations are being sold on the street. There's giddy excitement in the air. Yep, Rugby World Cup 2015 is almost upon us and Colombia is gearing up for it with gusto.

OK, I might be in dreamland there. Yes, the tiendas are stocking up, but that's a never-ending process. Yes, replica jerseys are being sold on the streets, but they always are and there's not a rugby one to be found. And yes, there's giddy excitement (or is that nervousness?) in the air — in a land with so many gorgeous (flaky as some may be) women about, that's inevitable.

Ireland's talismanic leader, Paul O'Connell. (Photo from Facebook.)

Considering there isn't a Colombian link to rugby union's showcase event — not one that I know of anyway — that the tournament will pass off without registering much of a beat in these parts isn't surprising. 

There's also the fact that rugby is very much a minority sport here. It is played in some universities and elsewhere but it's generally expat-led. The vast majority of football-mad locals have no idea of what rugby is about nor, understandably enough, do they have any interest in it; indeed even those who actually play it here don't seem to get it.

Thankfully, via ESPN Latin America, the battle for the Webb Ellis trophy will be broadcast on TV in the region. The only snag is convincing my local tienda owner to put it on; a Spanish football second division match would take precedence over the likes of Ireland-France. Perhaps I can arouse the locals' curiosity sufficiently enough to get them slightly interested (and supporting Ireland, of course) in order to watch the games.

There's always the internet or an interested party's house (somebody who has a TV, that is), but it can be nice to watch these things in a bar/tienda, if you could just get people not to interrupt your viewing.

As for the competition itself, well despite the genuine effort that will come from the other nations involved (20 in total), you can be pretty certain that the winner will come from one of the top-seven ranked teams in the world. Those are, in current order; New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, England, Wales, Ireland and France.

There are those who say you could narrow it down even further, to simply one — New Zealand. That's being a little disrespectful to the others, especially previous winners South Africa, Australia and England, but there's no doubt that the All Blacks, like always, are the team to beat.

What makes them more formidable this time around is that what had been a recurring theme for them in renewals prior to 2011 — cracking under the pressure of expectation — doesn't appear to be part of the equation this time around. Winning on home soil four years ago, their first global triumph in the professional era, has only added to their aura of invincibility.

Yet, the bookmakers aren't about to pay out on them just yet. Of the chasing pack, it could be argued that the big Northern Hemisphere sides come into this as strong as ever. And that it is being held in England and Wales, this should be a help to both those sides, as well as Ireland who go into the tournament as the best team in Europe for the past two seasons.

Formidable: the All Blacks. (Photo from Facebook.)

Indeed, expectations for the latter — although tempered somewhat by previous demoralising experiences when hopes were high as well as warm-up defeats to Wales and England which have left some doubts — are that at least a maiden semi-final can be reached. In this regard, defeating France in the pool stage and thus avoiding a potential last-eight clash with the All Blacks could be key to attaining that goal.

That brings us to the South American powerhouse in the mix, Argentina, Ireland's other possible quarter-final opponents. Los Pumas in many ways have been world rugby's breath of fresh air in recent years. While they have long been producing top-class players, it had been difficult for them to maintain consistency against the more traditional rugby-playing nations.

A lot of this was down to their geographical isolation and relatively poor organisational structures back home, meaning their most talented plied their trade miles from Argentina. 

Both drawbacks still exist but their merited inclusion in the Rugby Championship (formerly the Tri-Nations) in 2012 has seen them play Australia, New Zealand and South Africa on an annual basis.

Such tests have only helped to improve their competitiveness — note their historic first-ever win over South Africa this year. Were they to meet Ireland in the last eight, they'd certainly fancy their chances of another World Cup success against their old foes.

South America has another representative in the shape of Uruguay. Their best hope will be to keep losing margins respectable in what is the toughest pool in the tournament with England, Australia, Wales and an unpredictable Fiji expected to lead the charge, perhaps in that order.

So who can we expect to see going head-to-head in the Halloween final? Well, at this stage it would be a shock if the All Blacks weren’t there. Who will join them is a far trickier prediction. Depending on how the pools go, we could end up with an Australia-New Zealand final.

Ireland had been touted as potential finalists, but as mentioned their lead-in games have watered down such thoughts. The smarter money might be on hosts England, with fortress Twickenham giving them an extra edge, making the final cut.

But as anyone who has ever kicked a rugby ball knows, it can bounce in strange ways. Perhaps France have been saving themselves for this moment; a coup de foudre of sorts, on enemy territory? The next six weeks or so will tell a tale.
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Colombia's Copa?

With the club season, both domestically in Colombia and abroad, put to bed, attention on this side of the world turns to the Copa América.

Chile provides what will be, um, the chilly venue for this year's renewal. The winter weather apart, there are solid reasons for Colombian football followers to feel warm inside ahead of the tournament. Indeed, it could be argued that things have never been better for La Selección.

Falcao: The Colombian captain has been at his best in the national jersey. (Photo: Facebook.)

Last year, they had their best-ever run at a World Cup, unluckily and controversially losing out to hosts Brazil at the quarter-final stage. The painful manner of that defeat aside, the second-half performance together with the previous four games did prove that Colombia can go toe to toe with the global superpowers. This is reflected in the Fifa (don't snigger) world rankings, where the side remains in fourth spot, with third-placed Argentina the only South American side above them.

Plus, with the proven quality players they have at their disposal, José Pékerman's side have the potential to go far. You also have the Radamel Falcao factor, who will be keen to put a disappointing loan spell at Manchester United behind him; there's a belief in some quarters that back in the comfort of the national set-up, El Tigre will be a far more potent animal than what we saw in England.

Even if he's not, his presence around the squad is only beneficial for what is already a confident, tight-knit group. (For the record, he did score the only goal in Colombia's recent friendly win over Costa Rica and looked relatively sharp.)

To keep that confidence high, a good start will be key. Yet the opener, a tussle with Venezuela, is far from straightforward. Remember, Colombia only took one point from six off their neighbours during their last meetings in the South American World Cup 2014 qualifiers. But the fact that Colombia made it to the finals while Venezuela watched from the sidelines should mean that the former is a much stronger proposition this time around.

A mouthwatering 'revenge' clash with Brazil also awaits in the group stages. However, it could be said that Colombia missed the boat 12 months ago to get one over the five-time World Cup winners. It's unlikely Dunga's men will be as fragile this time around.

Is Colombia's 2015 edition good enough to replicate the 2001 heroes? (Photo Facebook.)

Peru completes the group and while nothing can be taken for granted, Colombia should be taking three points from that game.

In any case, the way the draw is, finishing second in the group may not be such a bad thing as the likes of tournament favourites Argentina and perennial winners Uruguay could be avoided until the final, if Colombia were to get that far. On the flip side, a potential semi-final battle with hosts Chile would be no gimme, to say the least. But if you want to be the best you've got to beat the best and all that.

It certainly promises to be an intriguing three weeks of football, with at least five teams that can be considered as genuine contenders to lift the trophy on 4th July.

Whether Colombia can emerge as South America's top dog, we'll have to wait and see. It's time to let the football do the talking.