A lot done, more to do

What a heady few days it's been for Colombia. There's what you might call a giddy excitement about the place. Most of that, unsurprisingly, is emanating from La Selección's, the national football team's rather impressive start to the World Cup. 

After a gap of 16 years since their last appearance at the finals, seeing off a seasoned tournament side as Greece are 3-nil, the European's somewhat muted challenge notwithstanding, has to be applauded. And that it certainly was, and then some. You can only imagine what the celebrations would be like if Colombia actually went on to win the World Cup.

Dancing in the streets for La Selección.

Then, just over 24 hours later, you had what for many is seen as a victory for peace – or at least to give it a chance – with Juan Manuel Santos' re-election as president. Sure, this hasn't united the country in anyway close to the way the football team has nor was it celebrated as universally.

A quick look at the numbers illustrates this: Taking the number of votos en blanco (votes for neither candidate, at just over 4 per cent) and null votes together with the 45 per cent who sided with the challenger Óscar Iván Zuluaga, and it could be argued that just as many Colombians are against Santos, or at least indifferent to him, as are for him. A turnout of 48 per cent further muddies the water.

However, there is a feeling that a Zuluaga presidency, with the hard-line, highly divisive former president Álvaro Uribe in the background, would have been somewhat of a regressive step for the country. It certainly would have been for the ongoing peace talks the current government is holding with the Farc rebels for one. While there have been false peace dawns here in the past, there does appear to be a majority of Colombians who feel this time could be different.

What's pretty much assured is that it's something that is effectively going to define Santos' legacy. In his victory speech, he spoke about how any peace achieved is not going to be that of 'Juan Manuel Santos or of this government.' It will be, he said, 'peace for all Colombians.' That, of course, is true. 

Yet, as president, Santos is the man leading the way. Rightly or wrongly, it will be at his door that praise or criticism lands. Fail and he'll be seen as another Colombian leader duped by the guerillas; succeed and a Nobel Peace Prize surely awaits.

Peace is the word. But is it within reach?

Whatever your thoughts about Santos, he has certainly proven himself to be astute when dealing with both colleagues and potential rivals. He was happy to use his Uribe links to help him claim his first term; then he washed his hands clean of them once the job was done.

To this end, questions are being asked about what, if anything, he has in mind for Clara López. The defeated leftist candidate from the first round very publicly endorsed him for president, replete with a TV ad, once she exited the race. 

It's hard to precisely measure how much this helped, but it didn't do any harm. So is there a seat at the cabinet table for López after showing such support? Or will it be a case of 'thanks, now off with you'?

Then there's the Bogotá Mayor Gustavo Petro and his faction, again from the political left, who also supported the Santos ticket. It's hard to believe that all this was unconditional; not in these parts.

At what could be seen as hints as to what he has in mind, and for the weekend that was in it, Santos spoke about learning from La Selección. 'Our players', he said, 'taught us that it's not possible to arrive at the big leagues playing as individuals; it's indispensable to work as a team.' 

Thus, he added, 'we are going to form a national selection government to continue building a country more just and egalitarian.'

El Presidente: Off to work, we hope.

So is his 'national selection' going to contain diverse elements, a counterpoint to the traditional centre-right that Colombian politics is chiefly made up of? 

We'll have to wait and see on that one. Furthermore, that 'more just and egalitarian' country might be harder to achieve than peace with the Farc; and, perhaps, less sought after.

One of the Santos campaign slogans was 'A lot done, more to do.' As is the case for the national football team at the World Cup, the greater challenges lie ahead. For now, optimism remains, and with mostly good reason.

However, Colombians from all backgrounds don't need to be reminded how hope can quickly turn to despair. In many ways, on all fronts, the work is only beginning.

Four more years: The least-bad option?

Right. The time for posturing and talking is almost over. We've known the participants for some time, now we're about to find out which one has what it takes to go all the way. 

Most of us, more or less, have a pretty decent idea of who the genuine contenders are versus the no-hopers, but in these final days minor hiccups could have a detrimental effect on the eventual outcome. Nobody can take anything for granted.

So, is it to the right or to the not-so right? (Photo from caliescribe.com.)

Yes, it certainly promises to be some spectacle in neighbouring Brazil when the World Cup kicks off next month. But before we become engrossed in that, there is the 'small', more imminent matter of Colombia's presidential election to keep us semi-entertained.

In fact, it's pretty much assured that the Colombian electorate will be asked to go the polls twice before it knows who its new top man is (for, if the opinion polls are to believed and barring some almighty surprise, it's going to be a man). 

That's because the incumbent seeking re-election, Juan Manuel Santos, has let what was by all accounts a rather healthy lead at the beginning of the year slip as polling day (25 May) approaches. Thus, none of the five candidates is set to get more than the 50 per cent of the votes required to win without the need for a second round.

Santos' nearest challenger has turned out to be, somewhat surprisingly, the Centro Democrático's (Democratic Centre that is; but generally more right of centre) Óscar Iván Zuluaga. 

His surge in popularity has been surprising given the fact that a few months ago the running joke was that when he arrived home each evening, the security guards at his apartment complex had to ask him for ID because he was so unknown.*

However, a mixture of the Centro Democrático getting its political machine into gear and some Santos failings has seen the gap between the two close considerably. 

On the former, the presence of the divisive yet still hugely popular figure for some, ex-president Álvaro Uribe, has been a major help. A dollop of hacking also seems to have worked wonders. 

Indeed, in what could be seen as a measure of the pigheadedness of many Centro Democrático supporters, the sight of Zuluaga 'talking business' with a hacker about delivering a blow to Santos doesn't appear to have done him much harm (see http://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/el-video-del-hacker-con-oscar-ivan-zuluaga/388438-3).

For his own part, how the current president handled – or not, as it appeared to be – the what-turned-out-to-be-temporary sacking of Bogotá mayor Gustavo Petro was problematic. His lack of leadership in what was a farcical period in Colombian politics has left people from all sides questioning his ability to govern.

In a contest where there is no stand-out choice, small things matter.

It's also effectively a first-past-the-post system. The stipulation that there must be a second vote between the top two candidates should no one receive more than 50 per cent first time out is just a delay on that. 

So bearing in mind the conservative nature of Colombia's electorate (those who vote that is, anyway), reflected in the opinion polls, this election is a straight shoot-out between Santos and Zuluaga.

President 'As Cool as it Gets for Now'? (Photo: juanmanuelsantospresidente.com.)

The others at this stage are just also-rans. In any case, the only one who is arguably offering any real alternative to the type of president Colombia has consistently returned is the (mild) leftist Clara López. The rest are very much 'as you were' with really only superficial differences.

Thus, Colombia, is it to be four more years of the 'devil you know', best described, at a push, as steady? Or do you go with the slightly unknown, but of the arrogant, brash Uribe school and party, Zuluaga?

Now, the argument can be made, with reason, that all in the running have Uribe links (as mentioned, for some Colombians that's a good thing). Even 'the darling of the left' López is tainted in this regard; and in a much more intimate way than the other candidates.

But old romances apart, the Zuluaga ticket represents the most potent political link to Uribe. In power, that basically means more division and discord, much less consensus.

Santos' decision to open up peace talks with the country's guerillas – the inherent problems in them apart – shows he is willing to compromise and make sacrifices. 

After more than 50 years of internal, zero-sum strife, 'the exterminate rather than communicate' line still favoured by many in the Uribe faction needs readdressing.**

There is also the theory that a second and final-term president has a little more freedom and can be more daring when released from the re-election straitjacket. Perhaps the best is yet to come from Santos?

Finally, taking it as a given that this election really is just a Santos-Zuluaga head-to-head, there is another strong reason to opt for Santos first up. 

The date for the second round, should it be required, is fixed for the weekend Colombia gets its World Cup campaign under way. And with elections here comes the 'dreaded' Ley Seca ('Dry Law' i.e. a ban on selling alcohol).

Perish the thought of having to watch the opening salvoes in Brazil from the mundaneness of an apartment.

Colombia, the choice is yours.
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*See the earlier Colombia's presidential election: The candidates (and their Irish 'equivalents') for a more of an 'understanding' of all the hopefuls.

**For more on the peace talks, check out An unwanted peace?