What the Farc?!

There have been a few developments since we took our what-might-be-called slightly tongue-in-cheek look at the early candidates for Colombia's 2018 presidential election.

Rather than having a clearer picture of the state of play, things have got even more muddled (heck, we might throw our hat into the ring yet; well, if everyone else is ...).

Former defence minister under outgoing President Juan Manuel Santos, Juan Carlos Pinzón, has entered the running, distancing himself from the now unpopular Santos in the process; a man's got to do what a man's got to do.

'The Farc is dead, long live the Farc!'

On the female front, Angela Merkel lookalike Clara López is making another bid for the top job while the Conservative Party's Marta Lucía Ramírez is gearing up for a third attempt; suckers for punishment, eh? 

Very much on the other side of the political spectrum to Ramírez we've Piedad Córdoba on the list for the 'loony left' (don't shoot the messenger; it's how Córdoba and her ilk are generally viewed here).

Speaking of the left, arguably the most eye-catching move has been the founding of the political party for the former guerrillas, Farc. 

In a bid to distance themselves from the image of death and destruction that they represent for most Colombians, they've come up with a novel name: Farc.

The, um, devil is the detail. This Farc stands for Common Alternative Revolutionary Force (Fuerza Alternativa Revolucionaria del Común), different to what the armed Farc stood for, which was Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. See the difference?

We could say it's a case of 'keep it simple, stupid'. At least it will make it easy for both supporters and opponents alike to know who they are. 

No need to copy the Northern Ireland scenario where people said (and some still say) Sinn Féin-IRA, linking the party to the armed group it represented/represents. Farc was/is Farc, a rare instance of efficiency in Colombia that, to look at it positively.

Of course, as mentioned here on umpteen occasions and alluded to above, the left is a dirty concept for not only middle-class Colombia but large swathes of its lower-classes as well. Come on guys, not all leftists are unwashed, miserable hippies. We shouldn't generalise now.

So the fear in some quarters that the political Farc could be a force to be reckoned with at the polling booth next year — we've parliamentary elections in March, before the presidential contest — seems quite irrational. 

Yes, it did register a less negative image than the other political parties in a recent opinion poll (the biggest thing that this poll highlighted was the lack of confidence in politics here in general).

However, if there's one thing we can rely on in Colombia, it's the electorate's unfailing support for the centre/centre-right when it comes to election day. Thus, the guaranteed seats Farc is to be given, five in each chamber as per the 2016 peace agreement, might be the party's lot for now.

What's more, the mess that we have in socialist Venezuela weakens further Farc's chances of making any significant political inroads in the near future. 

We must note here that just because a government says it is socialist doesn't mean it actually is that way in practice. The 'whatever you're having yourself' political experiment that Venezuela currently is has done more to damage the left than the right ever could.

That aside, what 'post-conflict' (no sniggering down the back there) Colombia needs is a massive clampdown on corruption — we're talking generations to achieve that; a culture doesn't change overnight — and, as far as we're concerned, a healthy dollop of social democratic thinking and policy.

The question is, do we have a political party here that can actually deliver that? You cynics will say no, but we live in hope -- honestly, we do. 

Failing that, Venezuela might sort itself out in the next decade or so.
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Broken Bogotá: Who can fix it?

This is, on the face of it, an important time coming up for Bogotá. In October the city's inhabitants will vote for a new mayor

A straight swap: Merkel for López. (Image: Pieter Hupkes.)

It's a bit of an understatement to say that the outgoing Gustavo Petro administration endured a turbulent time. And depending on where you're coming from, he either did a good job in the face of 'dark forces' undermining him, or he was the dark force returning Bogotá to uglier times.

The truth, as is generally the case in such matters, more than likely lies somewhere in the middle.

He may have tried to put his personal stamp on some things, the biggest example being the controversial waste collection changes that briefly cost him his job, but the reality is no one person can either fix or break Bogotá, as much as some like to think.

Does he leave the city in a better place, however? In short, no. But it could be argued that he has laid, or at least tried to lay, the foundations for a brighter future. 

For one, a metro sounds exciting, if the inhabitants here could figure out how to use it in an orderly, respectful fashion.

Also, as regards the rubbish debacle, at least trying to implement a culture change in how Bogotanos deal with their waste was worthy of some merit. Considering the city he has been in charge of, he has just about earned a pass mark.

Queuing up to replace him, you have the typical Colombian mix of right, centre-right and phoney left. The thing is, completely unlike the national presidency, Bogotá has gone left for its mayor with relative regularity in recent times.

However, while they all came in with grand ideals and promised much, the height of what many seemed to achieve was to anger their fellow elites and further disillusion the poor (and enjoy the trappings of power at the same time).

With that in mind, the point could be made that the city should shun the so-called left this time out. 

Yet last year's presidential candidate from the leftist (and mired in controversy) Polo Democrático, Clara López, is the early leader in the polls. She does talk a good talk for sure; and maybe the city could do with a more permanent woman's touch at the top table. (Women have served in the office, López included, but just in holding roles.)

Plus, if she has the same command and leadership skills as a woman she somewhat resembles — German Chancellor Angela Merkel (sorry Angela) — Bogotá could be on to a winner. It's best not to hold your breath just yet, though.

So if the left is to be avoided, who does the city look to?

There is President Santos' cousin, Francisco ‘Pacho’ Santos, himself a former vice president of the country, from the divisive Centro Democrático party. Yet, by all accounts he's like the joke candidate — a rightist, Colombian version of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. (However, if he was to adopt the 'Go Pato' song, tweaked to 'Go Pacho', it could work wonders.)

Pardo (right): 'If only Bogotá was a bit more like Madrid.' (Photo: Facebook.)

One other man who could fit the bill is the joint Liberal and de la U parties’ selection, former government minister Rafael Pardo. Like López, he already held the office for a brief period; his month in charge came during the Petro ‘in-out’ saga last year. 

From what this blog can gather, he certainly seems to be popular among young professionals and the middle class in general. Although, if the polls are to be believed, he has a lot of ground to make up on the Polo Democrático candidate.

Also, whether Pardo will even be on the ballot paper is now in doubt with Enrique Peñalosa's introduction to the race. The former mayor and presidential candidate announced his candidature by saying that he wants a centre-right alliance picking the best-placed runner to prevent López taking office.

Really, though, considering what has gone before, with the odd exception, it might be time to parachute in an outsider to sort the place out. The aforementioned Merkel would bring some badly needed German organisation to things. And she'd surely relish the daunting task at hand.

One of the first things she could perhaps weigh up, Berlin-in-reverse style, is constructing a north-south dividing wall.

A two-city solution, at least for a while. I wonder which side of the divide the current mayoral candidates would opt for?
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For an idea of some (just some) of the challenges facing the next Bogotá mayor, this piece from a while back gives an idea: Bogotá's 'broken window'.

A lot done, more to do

What a heady few days it's been for Colombia. There's what you might call a giddy excitement about the place. Most of that, unsurprisingly, is emanating from La Selección's, the national football team's rather impressive start to the World Cup. 

After a gap of 16 years since their last appearance at the finals, seeing off a seasoned tournament side as Greece are 3-nil, the European's somewhat muted challenge notwithstanding, has to be applauded. And that it certainly was, and then some. You can only imagine what the celebrations would be like if Colombia actually went on to win the World Cup.

Dancing in the streets for La Selección.

Then, just over 24 hours later, you had what for many is seen as a victory for peace – or at least to give it a chance – with Juan Manuel Santos' re-election as president. Sure, this hasn't united the country in anyway close to the way the football team has nor was it celebrated as universally.

A quick look at the numbers illustrates this: Taking the number of votos en blanco (votes for neither candidate, at just over 4 per cent) and null votes together with the 45 per cent who sided with the challenger Óscar Iván Zuluaga, and it could be argued that just as many Colombians are against Santos, or at least indifferent to him, as are for him. A turnout of 48 per cent further muddies the water.

However, there is a feeling that a Zuluaga presidency, with the hard-line, highly divisive former president Álvaro Uribe in the background, would have been somewhat of a regressive step for the country. It certainly would have been for the ongoing peace talks the current government is holding with the Farc rebels for one. While there have been false peace dawns here in the past, there does appear to be a majority of Colombians who feel this time could be different.

What's pretty much assured is that it's something that is effectively going to define Santos' legacy. In his victory speech, he spoke about how any peace achieved is not going to be that of 'Juan Manuel Santos or of this government.' It will be, he said, 'peace for all Colombians.' That, of course, is true. 

Yet, as president, Santos is the man leading the way. Rightly or wrongly, it will be at his door that praise or criticism lands. Fail and he'll be seen as another Colombian leader duped by the guerillas; succeed and a Nobel Peace Prize surely awaits.

Peace is the word. But is it within reach?

Whatever your thoughts about Santos, he has certainly proven himself to be astute when dealing with both colleagues and potential rivals. He was happy to use his Uribe links to help him claim his first term; then he washed his hands clean of them once the job was done.

To this end, questions are being asked about what, if anything, he has in mind for Clara López. The defeated leftist candidate from the first round very publicly endorsed him for president, replete with a TV ad, once she exited the race. 

It's hard to precisely measure how much this helped, but it didn't do any harm. So is there a seat at the cabinet table for López after showing such support? Or will it be a case of 'thanks, now off with you'?

Then there's the Bogotá Mayor Gustavo Petro and his faction, again from the political left, who also supported the Santos ticket. It's hard to believe that all this was unconditional; not in these parts.

At what could be seen as hints as to what he has in mind, and for the weekend that was in it, Santos spoke about learning from La Selección. 'Our players', he said, 'taught us that it's not possible to arrive at the big leagues playing as individuals; it's indispensable to work as a team.' 

Thus, he added, 'we are going to form a national selection government to continue building a country more just and egalitarian.'

El Presidente: Off to work, we hope.

So is his 'national selection' going to contain diverse elements, a counterpoint to the traditional centre-right that Colombian politics is chiefly made up of? 

We'll have to wait and see on that one. Furthermore, that 'more just and egalitarian' country might be harder to achieve than peace with the Farc; and, perhaps, less sought after.

One of the Santos campaign slogans was 'A lot done, more to do.' As is the case for the national football team at the World Cup, the greater challenges lie ahead. For now, optimism remains, and with mostly good reason.

However, Colombians from all backgrounds don't need to be reminded how hope can quickly turn to despair. In many ways, on all fronts, the work is only beginning.

Four more years: The least-bad option?

Right. The time for posturing and talking is almost over. We've known the participants for some time, now we're about to find out which one has what it takes to go all the way. 

Most of us, more or less, have a pretty decent idea of who the genuine contenders are versus the no-hopers, but in these final days minor hiccups could have a detrimental effect on the eventual outcome. Nobody can take anything for granted.

So, is it to the right or to the not-so right? (Photo from caliescribe.com.)

Yes, it certainly promises to be some spectacle in neighbouring Brazil when the World Cup kicks off next month. But before we become engrossed in that, there is the 'small', more imminent matter of Colombia's presidential election to keep us semi-entertained.

In fact, it's pretty much assured that the Colombian electorate will be asked to go the polls twice before it knows who its new top man is (for, if the opinion polls are to believed and barring some almighty surprise, it's going to be a man). 

That's because the incumbent seeking re-election, Juan Manuel Santos, has let what was by all accounts a rather healthy lead at the beginning of the year slip as polling day (25 May) approaches. Thus, none of the five candidates is set to get more than the 50 per cent of the votes required to win without the need for a second round.

Santos' nearest challenger has turned out to be, somewhat surprisingly, the Centro Democrático's (Democratic Centre that is; but generally more right of centre) Óscar Iván Zuluaga. 

His surge in popularity has been surprising given the fact that a few months ago the running joke was that when he arrived home each evening, the security guards at his apartment complex had to ask him for ID because he was so unknown.*

However, a mixture of the Centro Democrático getting its political machine into gear and some Santos failings has seen the gap between the two close considerably. 

On the former, the presence of the divisive yet still hugely popular figure for some, ex-president Álvaro Uribe, has been a major help. A dollop of hacking also seems to have worked wonders. 

Indeed, in what could be seen as a measure of the pigheadedness of many Centro Democrático supporters, the sight of Zuluaga 'talking business' with a hacker about delivering a blow to Santos doesn't appear to have done him much harm (see http://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/el-video-del-hacker-con-oscar-ivan-zuluaga/388438-3).

For his own part, how the current president handled – or not, as it appeared to be – the what-turned-out-to-be-temporary sacking of Bogotá mayor Gustavo Petro was problematic. His lack of leadership in what was a farcical period in Colombian politics has left people from all sides questioning his ability to govern.

In a contest where there is no stand-out choice, small things matter.

It's also effectively a first-past-the-post system. The stipulation that there must be a second vote between the top two candidates should no one receive more than 50 per cent first time out is just a delay on that. 

So bearing in mind the conservative nature of Colombia's electorate (those who vote that is, anyway), reflected in the opinion polls, this election is a straight shoot-out between Santos and Zuluaga.

President 'As Cool as it Gets for Now'? (Photo: juanmanuelsantospresidente.com.)

The others at this stage are just also-rans. In any case, the only one who is arguably offering any real alternative to the type of president Colombia has consistently returned is the (mild) leftist Clara López. The rest are very much 'as you were' with really only superficial differences.

Thus, Colombia, is it to be four more years of the 'devil you know', best described, at a push, as steady? Or do you go with the slightly unknown, but of the arrogant, brash Uribe school and party, Zuluaga?

Now, the argument can be made, with reason, that all in the running have Uribe links (as mentioned, for some Colombians that's a good thing). Even 'the darling of the left' López is tainted in this regard; and in a much more intimate way than the other candidates.

But old romances apart, the Zuluaga ticket represents the most potent political link to Uribe. In power, that basically means more division and discord, much less consensus.

Santos' decision to open up peace talks with the country's guerillas – the inherent problems in them apart – shows he is willing to compromise and make sacrifices. 

After more than 50 years of internal, zero-sum strife, 'the exterminate rather than communicate' line still favoured by many in the Uribe faction needs readdressing.**

There is also the theory that a second and final-term president has a little more freedom and can be more daring when released from the re-election straitjacket. Perhaps the best is yet to come from Santos?

Finally, taking it as a given that this election really is just a Santos-Zuluaga head-to-head, there is another strong reason to opt for Santos first up. 

The date for the second round, should it be required, is fixed for the weekend Colombia gets its World Cup campaign under way. And with elections here comes the 'dreaded' Ley Seca ('Dry Law' i.e. a ban on selling alcohol).

Perish the thought of having to watch the opening salvoes in Brazil from the mundaneness of an apartment.

Colombia, the choice is yours.
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*See the earlier Colombia's presidential election: The candidates (and their Irish 'equivalents') for a more of an 'understanding' of all the hopefuls.

**For more on the peace talks, check out An unwanted peace?

Colombia's presidential election: The candidates (and their Irish 'equivalents')

When it comes to politics, we Irish are as passionate as they come. Throw in an imminent election and our interest increases even more.

Back home, the European and local council elections will occupy some people's minds over the next few weeks. However, they're just not as 'sexy' as a general election, when we select the people to run (or not run, as the case often is) the state at national level. In this regard, Colombia's upcoming presidential ballot can fill that void for now.

So in a bid to help you know better those in the running for Colombia's top job, the following is a comparison between the candidates for Ireland's last presidential election in 2011 and those now doing likewise here.

Of course, the role of an Irish president is virtually ceremonial, with our prime minister more comparable to a Colombian president in terms of duties. But for character, background and in some ways affiliation similarities, this guide should be somewhat helpful.

10 more years?

Juan Manuel Santos – Michael D. Higgins

This may seem a strange match up. Higgins of the left and eventual winner of the Irish contest with the centrist/centre-right (as far left as presidents go here, really) Colombian incumbent now seeking re-election.

Michael D; least bad.

However, in the Irish case, after a fairly
tumultuous campaign for a presidential election, voters sided with Higgins as what could be seen as a 'safest pair of hands, not as controversial' kind of mentality. In less than glowing terms about Santos, the phrase 'best of a bad bunch' is one you'll regularly hear from many Colombians.

A problem area for El Presidente leading up to the 25 May poll is his decision not to intervene in the controversial dismissal of the now former Bogotá mayor Gustavo Petro, which could see some centre-left minded voters desert him. On the other side, the peace talks he has initiated with the Farc guerillas haven't gone down too well with some centre-right leaning Colombians.*

Opinion polls suggest he should still pull through – but it's unlikely he'll get 50 per cent or more of the votes to prevent a run-off election with his nearest challenger.

Peñalosa: Freewheeling.

Enrique Peñalosa Londoño – Seán Gallagher

While Peñalosa has much more of a political pedigree — he was a congressman in the early 1990s and mayor of Bogotá from 1998-2001 — than the entrepreneurial Gallagher, the link here comes from past associations with tainted (tainted for some that is) characters.

Gallagher: Toxic links.

Gallagher looked a shoo-in for the Irish presidency until accusations of dodgy financial dealings, linked with the once almighty but at the time (and still for many) pretty toxic Fianna Fáil party, dogged and eventually scuppered his campaign.

For Peñalosa, having previous ties with divisive former president and very much right-of-centre Álvaro Uribe could work against him. However, in a country such as Colombia where the left has traditionally been kept (often brutally) silent when it comes to having a say in elections, the Uribe link may not be as telling as you might think.

Indeed, that Peñalosa is running on a Green Party ticket could see him take a little bit more from the left than he might have done in another context.

López: Reawakening Colombia's left?

Clara López – David Norris & Martin McGuinness

As much as the Irish electorate might like to see itself as progressive and open-minded, the fact that David Norris is gay sat uncomfortably for many.

Norris (top) & 'missile' McGuinness.

'A nice guy, but you can't have a homosexual for president' was the general feeling, even if few admitted it publicly.

The above pretty much holds true in Colombia too, yet your prospects are probably a little worse being a leftist politician.
We're barely into double digits in terms of years passed since those from the democratic left were regularly, systematically even, gunned down due to their political persuasion.

Basically for those who held, and continue to hold, the purse strings and their supporters, left meant – and still means for some – guerilla, regardless of the actual truth. And being associated with guerillas while seeking high office in a country trying to put a deadly past behind it doesn't fit well with most franchised citizens – just ask Martin McGuinness.

Yes, things aren't as obviously bloody as they once were in Colombia and it's fair to say Ms López probably never held a gun in her hand in her life.

However, 'left' is still a dirty word for much of the electorate in these parts. With that, Ms López is in a battle she simply cannot win. Though, like many in her position before, she'll put up a good fight.

Zuluaga: Who?

Óscar Ívan Zuluaga – Gay Mitchell

Traditionalists with a powerful, popular party behind them. But dull and uninspiring. That pretty much sums up things here.

Gays, lots of Gays.

Mitchell's campaign never really got off the ground; largely because he just couldn't connect with voters.

For Zuluaga, the popular joke among the Colombian press speaks volumes:
Each time he arrives home the security guards at his apartment complex ask who he is, such is his dangerously low profile.

Running for the Centro Democrático (Democratic Centre) party and thus being in the shadow of the aforementioned former president Álvaro Uribe is both a hindrance and a help. It's a hindrance in that it's difficult for him to cut his own niche, be his own man. On the plus side, the Uribe link will land him plenty of votes from the multitude of right-leaning Colombians, ones he may not have got on his own standing.

For that reason, he can't be discounted as easily as Gay Mitchell was.

Well, if the T-shirt fits, Marta?

Also-rans: Dana (top) & Mary Davis.

Marta Lucía Ramírez – Dana Rosemary Scallon & Mary Davis

A case of the also-rans.

Representing the Conservative Party (aren't they all Conservative, bar López?) Ms Lucía Ramírez's presence might have the effect of taking some votes off Santos and Zuluaga.

Hence, she may have more of an influence than either Rosemary Scallon or Davis had on the Irish contest. But she certainly won't be making Casa de Nariño her home for the next four years.

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*For a background article on the peace talks, see Colombia's path to peace?