Tourism cancer

@wwaycorrigan

[For an audio version of this blog story click here.]

Sustainable tourism. Measured by how most travel to a tourist spot — saying nothing of where they stay, what they do and eat — and using carbon neutral as the measure, the term sustainable tourism is really an oxymoron.

Is sustainable tourism practically unachievable? (Click here for info on the photo.)

Like many concepts — or labels, if you will — it can, all the same, make both buyer and seller feel good about themselves. 'Oh this is sustainable, we're actually boosting biodiversity.' (Eh, sorry, but simply by your very existence as another human being you're most likely a net negative for the planet.)

Walk the walk

It's similar to those e-scooter users who seem to think that this mode of transport is particularly green, thus they're doing wonders for the environment. Try walking or using a standard push-bike, guys.

Indeed, if we all had to use our own energy to get to where we want to go, then we would be closer to something more sustainable, in carbon footprint terms in any case. (How we fuel our bodies would also play its part, of course.)

Tourism as we know it would effectively cease to exist in such a scenario, as would many other industries. This may please some save-the-planet activists, although they might just realise that the way the world currently operates gives them many comforts without which life becomes quite a struggle. They'd quickly see how much they've benefitted from these comforts.

"It's not only about environmental concerns that there is the expression, 'tourism's greatest cancer is tourism.'"

The rather unrealistic radicals aside, there are those of us who are concerned about many of humanity's harmful habits yet understand that we can't just stop all polluting practices forthwith and expect utopia to follow.

At a tourism trade expo in Bogotá recently, Colombian President Gustavo Petro spoke about the industry's negative impact, stating how it currently operates is unsustainable. Nonetheless, he also acknowledged that it wasn't going to disappear anytime soon. (Although, he only went as far as referring to its short- to medium-term future. In fairness, looking too far ahead is generally a futile exercise, for politician and layperson alike.)

Planet puppets

Thus, we must continue to strive to engage in the most environmentally friendly tourism and travel available. For some in the comfortable classes, many of whom talk a great biodiversity game but don't necessarily play it very well, this may mean travelling less often, particularly in aeroplanes.

Some tourism hotspots would be doing themselves a favour, perhaps not economically in the short term but for their longer-term prospects in general, in reducing visitor numbers.

It's not only about environmental concerns that there is the expression, 'tourism's greatest cancer is tourism.' I don't know too many people who enjoy going to places that are constantly crowded with visitors. Less can indeed be more in this context.

As with all the great potentially existential crises we face as a species, the hope is that we find the most sustainable, environmentally beneficial way of going about our business.

Of course, while some may think otherwise, we are but puppets on this planet. We shall succumb to it and the universe at large, not the other way around.

Be that as it may, we can at least try to be less self-absorbed as we expend the energy that makes up our current physical form.
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A somewhat pleasant surprise ...

@wwaycorrigan

Well, this visa approval (see photos below) was somewhat unexpected considering I couldn't get a similar type two years ago, i.e. an M visa as an independent professional (see https://wwcorrigan.blogspot.com/2020/09/colombias-independent-work-visa-vale-la.html), and had to make do with a "weaker" V visa up to now. 

Following changes by La Cancillería this year, that V visa I was granted 12 months ago no longer exists. So I had no real other option but to apply for this M one.

Clearly, President Petro's administration is a progressive one — progressive in a positive way that is, of course!

The ability to maintain as much individual independence as possible is important in a world that tends to work against such types.

And it comes exactly 11 years after my return to Colombia. At the time, it was no more than a case of 'let's give Colombia a lash', in terms of living there for a while. Here I still am!

Approved.

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Listen to Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast here.

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Colombia on the fringes

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

Colombian tax reform. Many have tried it — or at least given helpful suggestions — but few have had much lasting success. The mere utterance of the phrase sends some folk into a paroxysm.

In 2021, planned revenue reforms were a chief reason behind what resulted in months of public unrest. Over a year on and with a new president in place, finding ways to boost Colombia's coffers is back on the agenda.

Colombia on the fringes: Not a bad place to be in many aspects.

Fat tax
To be honest, and for reasons that will become clearer, I haven't paid too much attention to President Gustavo Petro's plans in this regard.

From what I do know, the somewhat controversial proposal to tax certain sugary drinks and ultra-processed foods is something that I largely agree with.

Ditto with disposable plastic products. Many Colombians seem incapable of shopping without putting practically every item into a separate plastic bag. Charging them for such a practice might just make them think twice.

That those earning more than ten million pesos (currently just over 2,255 euros) per month — only about two per cent of the population, apparently — will have to pay income tax is also welcome. I'm not, unsurprisingly, currently in that bracket.

Increased fuel taxes will most likely see travel become a little more expensive but I can shoulder that.

'It's not that the devil will be in the detail of proposals to come — Colombians tend to be byzantine in terms of details on paper.'

Looking at the other changes mentioned, I can't see much that will directly affect me adversely — unless I become ridiculously rich in the coming months. 

This would appear to be the same for ninety-eight per cent of Colombians, the mooted reforms mentioned above excepted. They do certainly love their gaseosas (fizzy drinks) here (for more on that see https://wwcorrigan.blogspot.com/2016/01/waging-sweet-war-for-healths-sake.html and https://blogs.eltiempo.com/wrong-way-corrigan/2014/01/31/colombias-battle-with-the-bulge/).

Of course, the Petro presidency may affect that ninety-eight per cent and me in other ways, not just financially, and for both good and bad. 

It's not that the devil will be in the detail of proposals to come — Colombians tend to be byzantine in terms of details on paper. It's how they're actually implemented for real. That'll be the key.

Pay to stay
Whatever the case, despite almost eleven years in the country, I feel somewhat outside the state's structures. Again, many Colombians — for better or for worse — could say the same but for very different reasons.

In my case, having a temporary visa status as a visitor (V type) is one reason for this "isolation". Yes, it allows me to engage in independent paid employment here but it doesn't put me on 'the road to residency', as the phrase goes.

It does, though, ensure I make an annual contribution to the state in the region of one million pesos. I won't have it said that I don't pay my way here. 

(Coming from a Nanny State pay-as-you-earn [PAYE] tradition, I find the idea of filing tax returns odd. Apparently, I'm a bit away from the threshold for payment anyway. In any case, pretty much all of my expenditure goes back into the Colombian economy. There are certainly no peso remittances being sent back to Ireland.)

In general, I'm largely indifferent to the country's politics. A presidential or Bogotá mayor election piques my interest but that's pretty much the height of it.

I cursorily check Colombian news but I rarely feel enthused to delve deeper into the comings and goings of events here. Most of my engagements with current affairs media these days are from UK sources.

So, outside of the perennial visa headache and bank dealings, my relationship with official Colombia is along the lines of, 'If you don't mingle much in my life, I won't mingle much in yours.'

Akin, it could be said, to the parting words Don Corleone gave to the Turkish drug dealer, Sollozzo, in The Godfather movie: 'Good luck to you, especially as your interests don't conflict with mine.' A risky analogy that, perhaps.

For the most part, I'd like to maintain this relative independence from the Colombian state. Let's not make each other any offers that we can't refuse. Well, we won't say "never" on that one.

But let's try not to over-complicate things, whatever might happen in the future.
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Conservative Colombia left in the cold — for now

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

So the last bastion of conservatism and right-wing populism in Latin America has fallen. Colombia has chosen a leftist president for the first time in its history.

A new dawn for Colombia? Gustavo Petro and Francia Marquéz celebrate their historic election win. (Photo from Facebook.)

The rains that fell incessantly on the capital city, Bogotá, as the results flooded in on Sunday 19 June were most likely viewed as cleansing waters from the heavens for supporters of now president-elect Gustavo Petro. Indeed, in a tweet, he did put the victory down to 'God and the citizens and their history (or story).'

New Colombia

For those who loathe the former rebel — and there are many in that category — the dreary weather must have felt like pathetic fallacy, heralding a decadent, possibly very unstable era.

In fairness, both Petro and the surprise-package challenger in this run-off contest, 77-year-old Rodolfo Hernández who ran on a strong anti-corruption ticket, were representing a change of sorts. Hernández — or the more affectionate Rodolfo as he goes by — was hardly mentioned as a serious contender a month or so out from the first election on 29 May.

His social media campaigning was Trumpesque, making particular use of TikTok. The plan for the former mayor of Bucaramanga appeared to be, 'don't give too much away and just say what many want to hear'. It nearly produced the hoped-for effect.

Petro, on the other hand, has been in the national political limelight for quite some time. Alongside his highly divisive guerilla involvement in the 1970s and '80s, he was elected to Colombia's lower house of Congress in 2002, became a senator in 2006 and won the Bogotá mayor's office in 2012. He also previously ran for president in 2010 and 2018.

'A taxi driver who voted for the winner told me it was a case of opting for the least-bad candidate. Or, to borrow from a saying in these parts, to avoid going from Guatemala to Guatepeor.'

This familiarity may have actually been a significant factor in getting Petro over the line this time. The loose-cannon nature of Rodolfo that displayed itself on numerous occasions worked to his rival's advantage.

As a far-from-euphoric taxi driver who voted for the winner told me, it was a case of opting for the least-bad candidate. Or, to borrow from a saying in these parts, to avoid going from Guatemala to Guatepeor — from bad to worse, basically.

Petrograd

The concerns of those against Petro are in relation to what is seen as his socialist agenda. 'He'll turn Colombia into another Venezuela', that's the common mantra.

A dramatic disruptor in the mould of Hugo Chávez, he is unlikely to be, however. Yes, he and, to an even greater extent, his vice president, the Afro-Colombian environmentalist and human-rights activist Francia Marquéz, represent something quite removed from those of the old Conservative/Liberal heritage who have dominated these offices before.

Yet, the idea that they'll tear down the existing state structures and construct an entirely new system seems somewhat farfetched.

The term, which begins on 07 August, is, after all, limited to four years with reelection constitutionally prohibited. What an administration with a potentially radical programme — and much to do with it — can achieve in such a timeframe in a rather legalistic country is open to debate.

Thus, paving the way for a successor will most likely be a high priority. The 'Petro Plan' is going to need more than four years to deal with the likes of deep-rooted inequality, to name just one of the country's many ills.

As outgoing President Iván Duque discovered in 2021 with his tax-reform proposals — a perennial problem here — opposition in Colombia can be fierce and bring together disparate sections of society.

Mentioning Duque, when he hands over the reins to Petro he'll have just turned 46. One gets the feeling, however, that he'll be happy to end his career in Colombian politics when he vacates Casa de Nariño, unlike his mentor, the president from 2002 to 2010, Álvaro Uribe.

Whatever lies in store for Duque, these next four years for Colombia are certainly set to be intriguing.

While many thought it would never happen, Petro's big moment has arrived. For sure, he'll face many obstacles as, it would appear, about half the country won't want him to succeed, some of whom wield considerable power in various influential spheres.

Yet, for the other half, he is the president they have been waiting for to make what they see as the necessary changes to finally improve their lot.

It's now time to deliver, Presidente Petro. Your enemies aren't willing to stay in the cold for long.
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Colombia decides: Go with Gutiérrez or plump for Petro?

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

In just over a month, 29 May 2022 to be precise, Colombians go to the polls to elect their next president.

In the left corner, Gustavo Petro. And in the right-ish corner, Federico "Fico" Gutiérrez. (Photos from https://www.facebook.com/gustavopetrourrego/photos/ & https://federicogutierrez.com/.) 

Fico fights back

There are two things that we can take as virtually certain at this stage. One is that the country's next leader will be a man. The other is that this man won't be declared the winner on 29 May.

The reason for the latter is that for a candidate to win the presidency in the first round, he/she needs more than 50 per cent of the overall valid votes cast. With eight runners currently in the field for the nation's top job and polls showing no runaway favourite, it's pretty much certain a run-off will be needed between the top two candidates.

That head-to-head — barring some dramatic game-changer in the coming weeks — will be between former Bogotá mayor and runner-up in the 2018 presidential election, Gustavo Petro, and Federico "Fico" Gutiérrez, former mayor of Colombia's second city, Medellín.

Opinion polls have shown the leftist Petro with a relatively consistent lead throughout for some time now. Indeed, with a split centre/centre-right vote in round one — that there is no official candidate from the party of the still popular yet divisive former president, Álvaro Uribe, the man who helped propel outgoing president Iván Duque to victory, is a factor here — it seems safe to assume the one-time guerrilla will win the first round but fall somewhat short of the magic number to obviate a second day out.

'All this has to be balanced against the idea that a leftist, former guerrilla becoming Colombia's president takes the cherished sweetness out of the morning coffee of many citizens.'

Thus, similar to 2018 (see my post from that year, Right you are Colombia, for background), the key question is, where will the votes from the losing candidates in round one go in round two?

Most observers, backed up by polling — polls do tend to be reliable in Colombia — suggest Gutiérrez (I'm loath to call him by the affectionate "Fico" monicker) will take the lion's share. This may be enough to get him over the line but it looks set to be very close. (Do note that traditionally conservative Colombia has never returned what one may consider a genuine leftist candidate.)

The country's electoral system does also allow for a valid protest/blank vote, 'voto en blanco' (see https://wwcorrigan.blogspot.com/2018/02/colombia-vote-ve-blanco-for-real-change.html). In the 2018 run-off, this took 4.2 per cent of the overall votes, an increase of three percentage points from that year's first round. In one opinion poll in March this year, 16 per cent of respondents said they would vote blank. With that in mind, this phantom candidate may play a decisive role this time.

A turnout for Petro?

Another important factor is turnout. It hovered around 54 per cent in both rounds in 2018, a rather high figure compared to all the other presidential elections this century. As a reference, turnout for this year's congressional elections in March was just over 47 per cent of registered voters, about 1.5 percentage points lower than the 2018 figure.

If turnout increases for this year's presidential election — the various controversies with voter registration in Colombia aside — and we guesstimate that this means a greater participation of younger voters, the belief is that this would be a positive for Petro.

All this has to be balanced against the idea that a leftist and former guerrilla becoming Colombia's president takes the cherished sweetness out of the morning coffee of a not-insignificant number of citizens.

Even the slightest suggestion of something socialist sees many people point to the east and the ongoing mess that is neighbouring Venezuela.

That aside, and while Petro's mayorship of Bogotá was not without its ideological battles (see https://wwcorrigan.blogspot.com/2012/12/petrograd-colombias-new-capital.html & https://blogs.eltiempo.com/wrong-way-corrigan/2014/01/24/ordonez-petro-et-al-fiddle-while-bogota-continues-to-burn/), one finds it hard to envisage a Petro presidency turning the country into the next Venezuela.

Brother countries they may be but the overall more conservative nature of Colombia means it is unlikely radical social change will occur here akin to what we've seen in Venezuela over the last twenty years. What's more, Gustavo Petro is no Hugo Chávez Frías.

Indeed, it could be argued that the most radical departure Colombians could take in this presidential election would be if voto en blanco won the day.

That won't happen. So, as a largely independent observer, if I was forced at this stage to put some of my hard-earned pesos on the outcome, I'd go with Gutiérrez. Very hesitantly, that is.
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'I dated President Duque's sister' — Daniel Coronell

@wwaycorrigan

Renowned Colombian journalist, Daniel Coronell, has revealed how he once dated the sister of current Colombian president, Iván Duque.

Bad romance: Coronell reveals he dated Iván Duque's sister.

Coronell, a regular critic of Duque as well as his party Centro Democrático and, more controversially, that party's leader, former president Álvaro Uribe Vélez, made the revelation in an English-language interview on Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast.

Divine intervention
'Many years ago, like 30 years ago, I was the boyfriend of Duque's sister. I loved her a lot', he said.

They even discussed plans to marry. 'I cannot imagine my life (today) if I was the brother-in-law of this president of Colombia.'

Miami-based Coronell, an atheist, joked that it was a higher power that put an end to their romance. 'There was a kind of superior decision — and I am an atheist — that broke (up) the relationship on time.'

"I loved her a lot."

Asked whether he still remains in contact with President Duque's sister, his response was a blunt 'no'.

He also spoke about his April 2020 departure from his columnist role with Colombia's leading current affairs magazine, Semana, a gig he had held for 15 years. 

His leaving coincided with sweeping changes at the publication, with well-known broadcast journalist Vicky Dávila eventually taking over as director, a move seen by some as a shift to a more populist, sensationalist editorial style.

Quoting the Italian film director, Federico Fellini, Coronell said, 'Yo nunca había visto nada igual (which translates as 'I'd never seen anything like it'), that's my opinion of Semana.'

As for writing for the magazine again, his simple reply to that question was 'probably not'.

In relation to the 2022 Colombian presidential election, the current president of news at the US-based Univisión TV channel expressed his concerns that the election would, as in 2018, become a left versus right shoot-out.

While he suggested he would be against whoever is selected by the Centro Democrático side on the right — the 'Uribe puppet' as he calls it — Coronell also has concerns about the leftist former candidate Gustavo Petro who is set to run again.

Nonetheless, if it came down to a choice between Tomás Uribe, Álvaro Uribe's son who is being mooted as a runner, and Gustavo Petro, Coronell said he would vote for the latter.

However, he predicted that the Centro Democrático may opt for a more traditional conservative candidate such as Luis Alberto Moreno.

Whatever the case, he said he hopes that a solid centrist candidate can emerge in the coming months.

Watch the YouTube interview in full at https://youtu.be/ZsWTBwGXRXY or listen to an audio-only podcast version at https://anchor.fm/brendan-corrigan/episodes/Daniel-Coronell-on-dating-Duques-sister--unmasking-Uribe--Petros-problems--Vicky-Dvilas-Semana-eq798l.
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'Right you are, Colombia'

There is very often a significant difference between what one might like to see happen and what actually does transpire.

In this regard, in relation to our previous post, lest there be any confusion, we don't expect Humberto de la Calle to be Colombia's next president. As much as we may like what he's about, the majority of the Colombian electorate, those who actually matter in this, don't. Or at least they don't want him as their next president.

Iván Duque: The "right" fit for Colombia (photo from Facebook).

In fact, de la Calle himself more than likely realises he won't be taking up residence at Casa de Nariño.

The man who will be doing that, barring what would amount to a significant sea change in the state of play, is Iván Duque.

It's pretty clear why.

Firstly, in normal circumstances, those who bother to vote in Colombia look to the centre/centre-right when electing their president.

Taking that as a given, there are really only two other serious challengers to Duque: Sergio Fajardo and Germán Vargas Lleras.

Yet, if we are to trust the majority of opinion polls, the country's left, or more socially democratic minded we could say, are behind Gustavo Petro in significant numbers. For many in this bracket, it's Petro or nothing (or certainly not Álvaro Uribe's protégé Duque). 

So this large minority, if they get out and vote, should do enough to get their "messiah" into the decisive second-round vote. The thing is, faced with a split centre-right vote, the Petro ticket does well.

However, in a straight shoot-out against just one, let's say more acceptable candidate for this country, Petro's a losing bet. This is especially so when it's seen as a black-and-white contest, left versus right, as it will be with Duque.

It seems safe to assume that the majority of Vargas Lleras's votes would transfer to Duque. Some Fajardo voters might swing to Petro, but certainly not all of them.

Thus, for the many 'Anybody but Duque/Uribe' Petro voters, their best chance of keeping the Centro Democrático out might be to opt for Fajardo in the first round. That is, try and make it a Duque-Fajardo head-to-head. In that scenario, some more centrist-type voters who wouldn't contemplate siding with Petro might be more inclined to go with Fajardo rather than Duque.

Of course, this sort of tactical, second-guessing voting largely based on opinion polls is risky. It could all backfire.

Nonetheless, regardless of how the others line up, this looks to be Duque's contest to lose.

This brings us on to the broader issue of why Colombia tends to shun anybody with a hint of "left" to him/her when it comes to its president.

The fact that the state has been battling leftist insurgents since the 1950s is a significant factor. 

For this particular election, the murderous activities of Farc dissidents on the Ecuadorian border, the controversial arrest of a high-up ex Farc guerrilla on drug trafficking charges and the stop-start peace talks with a still active ELN reinforce the commonly held view that 'left is bad'. The political and social turmoil in neighbouring "socialist" Venezuela is also playing its part.

Yet, other Latin American countries have had to deal with a violent left without this resulting in such political thinking being pretty much dismissed outright.

One of the differences for Colombia is due to the fact that the state, with significant help from right-wing paramilitaries, systematically destroyed the political left, rendering it no more than an irritant. The discourse has been dominated by the victors, the rightist state and its media friends.

Those on the left are subversives, a threat to the Colombian republic. So the narrative goes anyway.
(It is important to note here that the United Nations estimates that the Farc and ELN accounted for 12 per cent of civilian deaths in the conflict up to 2016, with 80 per cent attributed to right-wing paramilitaries. The government was responsible for the remaining eight per cent.)

Thus, with the recent violent events mentioned above, Colombia's rightist guardians look as appealing as ever to urban dwellers across the stratum divide.

Now is not the time to rock the boat. Better the devil you know guys.
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Colombia, to de la Calle!

OK, we may need to change our preference. While we still have plenty of respect for V.E. Blanco, the sad reality is, for, um, existential reasons he won't actually physically make it to Palacio de Nariño, Colombia's presidential palace.

That being so, you still have to admire his performance ahead of the presidential first-round vote on 27 May. He's doing better than four of the seven actual candidates in the race. Only Iván Duque, Gustavo Petro and Sergio Fajardo (just about) are more popular according to the opinion polls.

De la Calle: As his name suggests, he's right at home on the streets. (Picture from Facebook.)

To the left, to the right 

Yet, taking Dr Blanco out of things, who do we endorse for Colombia's top job? For many locals, it's either the rightist Duque, the candidate of former president, the divisive Álvaro Uribe, or former Bogotá mayor and once leftist guerrilla with the defunct M-19, Petro. 

The never-again-to-be-trusted opinion polls have Duque ahead, a man who has promised to make significant adjustments to the peace agreement outgoing President Juan Manuel Santos signed with the Farc.

In many ways, it would be interesting to see how Colombia would operate under a leftist president, something it has never really had. Now, how left Petro actually is, depends on who you listen to. He talks a somewhat leftist game in any case, yet he certainly doesn't dress like a man at one with the impoverished masses.

For sure, all candidates realise the need to address the vast inequality Colombia has and they have various ideas in this regard. Yet proposals on paper are one thing, putting them into practice, quite another. Needless to say, there's no simple solution.

Fajardo the fair

Notwithstanding that, considering Duque-Petro is seen as a battle of the extremes — "A hawkish Duque presidency will result in deepening political and social division, a Petro administration will see the country slide towards socialism and potentially cripple the economy" — more moderate Colombians are looking for the centre ground. On this front, former Medellín mayor and Antioquia department governor Fajardo appears to be the preferred candidate.

He's promising to be a "president of reconciliation", playing, in a way, to that concern that a win for either of the current leading candidates will dangerously divide the country.

Of course, he's not the only centrist candidate. However, the polls have him comfortably ahead of both Germán Vargas Lleras, who had a stint as vice president under Santos, and the Liberal party's Humberto de la Calle, whose last political role was government chief negotiator in the Farc peace talks.

That the two men had important posts in the Santos administration is no doubt working against them. The electorate is looking for change and both Vargas Lleras and de la Calle have been too close to the outgoing crowd.

De la Calle: The stopgap president?

Yet, the country could do worse than taking stock of things after a few rocky years. For one, there's been that aforementioned controversial peace agreement which ended up being rejected in a referendum yet its implementation went ahead anyway. 

We've also seemingly never-ending corruption scandals and the delicate issue of streams of Venezuelans continuing to enter the country as they escape the mess they have at home.

In such an environment, an experienced, largely respected pair of hands in the shape of Humberto de la Calle could be seen as a good compromise, interim choice.

At almost 72 years of age and with his moderate background, he’s not exactly in the same mould as a Putin or Uribe. A ‘president for life’ by whatever means possible he will not be.

He's unlikely to dramatically change things, for better or for worse. However, at a time when the tendency across the globe seems to be to run to the extremes, de la Calle offers Colombia a little breather from the madness, and maybe even a bit more.

Humberto de la Calle: Steady as she goes for four short years?

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Colombia, vote V.E. Blanco for real change

Oh, what exciting times we have in Colombia. Election fever is in the air. In early March we've the curtain-raiser, the congress 'deciders'. Then in May, the big one gets underway, the first round of the presidential contest. For the record, a second round won't be needed if one candidate takes more than 50 per cent of the vote, but that's unlikely.

As ever, wily Wrong Way has been keeping a close eye on proceedings. (Not to blow our own Trump-et here, but we did foresee Trump's victory, as well as signalling the strength of the 'no' vote in both the Colombian peace agreement plebiscite and Brexit.)

Voto En Blanco: Your only man!

A bit has changed since we looked at the early candidates in the running. Nonetheless, despite all the other movers and shakers, 'Poker Petro' and 'Pilsen Fajardo' are the ones to beat going by those never-again-to-be-trusted opinion polls.

Well, they lead the way if you discard a certain V.E. Blanco, Voto En Blanco. He — and rest assured it is a 'he', Colombia's not ready for a lady president just yet (sorry Marta Lucía) — is polling quite strongly, even topping some.

While many may be quick to dismiss him, thinking he's a bit of an enigma or worse still a fraud, there are solid reasons to get behind him (more so than the others we could say).
Here's why:

A president for all

Blanco ticks all the boxes you want him to. For those few Colombians in the loony left brigade, he is unashamedly 'Castrochavista'. There's no need for public denials as to the existence of this brand of socialism. Let's be honest, Venezuela is giving the left a bad name. Blanco's Colombia will make socialism sexy again. (It was sexy once, wasn't it?)

Conversely, Blanco can be as right-wing as they come, something that will please many Colombians. He can proudly wax lyrical about the great work the right-wing paramilitaries, paracos, have done and are doing, by any means possible, to ensure those aforementioned bearded lefties are kept down.

What's more, he won't have anyone snooping around asking awkward questions. 'Firm hand, big heart', or something along those lines.

A man you can trust

OK, trust and politics don't make easy bedfellows whatsoever, but Blanco breaks the mould here. We can rest assured that when we put our 'X' after his name (we're going to try and sneak a vote or two in), he won't break his 'campaign' pledges.

How so? Well, it's simple really. He doesn't make any promises. There's no, let's say 'miércoles', or horse manure if you will, with Blanco. The rest of the candidates would do well to follow suit. 

Cheaper than changua 

The Colombian president's salary currently stands at US$250,000. That's a whopping $711,560,441 Colombian pesos. A bog-standard worker here would do well to get more than $10,000,000 a year, seventy times less than the top dog. In comparison, the salary for the president of neighbouring Ecuador is a more modest US$75,000, while in Venezuela, officially anyway, it's at just under US$25,000.

Putting Blanco in Casa de Nariño, the presidential palace, would cost nothing. Blanco can live off Bogotá's, um, fresh air. In fact, we could open up the palace to Colombia's myriad of homeless. Even let them have a little go at running the country. They couldn't do much worse than what's gone before, could they? 

It's decided so. Voto En Blanco for president!
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Colombia decides 2018: What'll yours be?

After eight years of the good, the bad and the ugly with Juan Manuel Santos, next year the Colombian electorate will vote for a new president.

There's still a bit to go before we know the, um, range of candidates on the actual ballot paper, but there are a few who have already indicated their intention to run for the highest office in the land.

Plus, considering there's generally very little ideological difference among those who do put their names forward — due largely to an old policy of murdering any politician with just a hint of socialism about him/her — it's very much like choosing you're favourite, bog-standard Bavaria beer, the beer company of Colombia (owned by Anheuser-Busch InBev as it is now).

'Aguila' Ordóñez, what Colombia should be about ..

We all tend to prefer one over the other, but they're essentially the same not-very-classy poison that may leave us with a headache and regret if we get too involved and put too much faith in them as instruments of change in our mediocre lives. (OK, that's a bit harsh on the beer, and at least it's not the ridiculously overpriced Bogotá Beer Company.)

With that as a guide, here we look at some of those in the mix at this early stage (subject to much change):

Gustavo 'Poker' Petro

Poker Petro is at home in Bogotá, where it has held sway for much of the working-to-middle classes for some time, a few flat, controversial moments notwithstanding.

The problem is, this populism doesn't tend to transfer to the other major urban centres. The label is seen as a little bland elsewhere, a tad bitter even. Thus, we'd expect it to do well in Bogotá along with a smattering of other towns and could go close. Yet a decent volume of support doesn't always turn into votes. The Poker grande (750 ml) might be popular and look impressive, but it's just one bottle. Two standard 330 ml Aguila bottles appear better on the table in the minds of some Colombians.

Alejandro 'Aguila' Ordóñez

At this remove it's all a bit clustered and hazy on Colombia's right, where you'll find all the 'políticos Aguila'. Yet for the moment an Aguila Ordóñez fits this slot pretty well (as does any one coming out of the ideologically-similar Centro Democrático). That is to say, the beer of Colombia. It matches, in a typically paradoxical way, what the country should be about. Aguila has the Colombian colours, the chicas, the vibrancy; Ordóñez the old-school Catholicism, the traditionalism, the elitism. A perfect match.

Foreigners often fail to get the appeal; it's a Colombian thing, we wouldn't understand.

Jorge 'Costeña' Robledo

The beer that could be king. However, in a significant part of the country it's not even known about. Ask for a Costeña Robledo and you'll get a strange look. Where you can get it, it suffers from not sharing in the same sort of lofty limelight as our Pokers and Aguilas, even though it's just as good if not a bit better. Yet it's the black, 'potentially dangerous' sheep of the family, with its funny little shape. Knock back this brew and god knows what kind of crazy socialist path you might stumble down.

Sergio 'Pilsen' Fajardo

We're in Medellín/paisa country and surrounds with this one. In its own backyard, a Pilsen Fajardo more or less beats all the other Bavaria beers put together; it gets its people. The thing is, it doesn't travel well. In fact, it doesn't really travel at all.

Sure it's recognisable to those who aren't in its catchment area. Indeed many Aguila and Poker stalwarts have dabbled in it and spoken highly of it. Nonetheless, it's still a little different and a bit too regional, self-centred even. If Pilsen Fajardo broadens its horizons, it could be a force to be reckoned with.

Germán 'Aguila Cero' Vargas Lleras

This ticket has a strong name behind it, but it lacks any real punch and tastes rather odd. If you were going to pick a beer, you'd have to ask why would you go for this one? The other ones out there are more exciting and give you a little high, at least for a while before it all starts going downhill. An Aguila Cero Vargas might turn out to be the safest option (scientific research pending), but it seems a kind of a 'last resort' this. The dregs of Santos in a way.

Aguila Light López tends to leave you disappointed ...

Claudia 'Aguila Light' López

It almost seems like a great deal. An alternative to the traditional 'Aguilistas', an Aguila Light López speaks for a new, brighter Colombia, but not in ridiculously radical ways. A sensible, middle-ground option we might say, yet refreshingly different enough from the old-school popular boys.

That's the theory anyway. The reality is, it generally leaves you a little disappointed. It promises a high, but you tend to get too tired and lose patience before you reach it. What's more, you end up with a bigger hole in your wallet than if you'd just stuck with the old normal ones.

So there we have it. The not-very-definitive guide to some of the potential candidates for the Colombian presidency. Merry times ahead indeed.

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Bogotá's perpetually broken windows

A couple of years back this blog looked at some of Bogotá's 'broken windows'. That is to say, in relation to the broken windows theory on crime and its prevention, things in the Colombian capital that could be seen as pointing to a lawlessness nature, or at least letting what seem like minor things get out of hand. 

With the city's mayoral elections just over a month away,* here we revisit those broken windows to see what, if anything, has changed:

Spot the poo.

Faeces on the streets

Considering all the other problems Bogotá has, this one rates pretty low. However, it doesn't take away from the disgusting nature of it, made all the worse that the poo you see, or stand in, is just as likely to be from humans as from dogs (or police horses).

From a city centre/La Candelaría/Las Aguas point of view, not much has changed with this problem. OK, some portable free-to-use public toilets have been installed in a few key locations, but they seem to be locked more than they are open.

The continued rejuvenation of the principle Carrera Séptima (Seventh Avenue) in the centre is bringing a new gloss to things around there; but as the lot for the main perpetrators of this particular problem hasn't changed, it's hard to envisage things staying clean and shiny for long.

Aggressive beggars

At best, we can say this one has stayed the same over the last few years. That's the optimistic view. Again, looking at it from a tourist/expat-heavy city centre perspective, it could be argued that things have actually regressed.

As stated in the original, it’s a thin line to cross from aggressively asking for money to aggressively taking it. Beggars aside, the more dangerous out-and-out thieves certainly appear to be as strong in number as ever.

Giving such types a more positive raison d'être is an ongoing challenge, one that neither the mayor's office nor national government seems capable of meeting.

Transmilenio delinquents

With the recent fare increase for Bogotá's flagship public transport system, we'll probably see more rather than fewer of these in the coming months and years. OK, the extra revenue will be used, so we're being told, to increase security and improve the overall service and infrastructure of the operation.

Chances are, if you can reduce the number of fare hoppers, you'll reduce the incidents of theft inside the system.

Rubbish

For good or bad, this is the area where outgoing mayor Gustavo Petro will be remembered the most.
Has his Basura Cero (Zero Rubbish) programme been effective? In short, no.

In his defence, securing a lasting peace in Colombia may be easier than dealing with its rubbish problem. In most barrios of the city, if people used standard wheelie bins to leave their waste for collection, these bins wouldn't be in their possession for long.

Warning tape was actually put around this hole; it didn't last, though.

You see anything that isn't firmly — firmly — fixed to Mother Earth or well secured in other ways generally goes 'missing' in these parts.

So the custom of leaving rubbish for collection in random locations on the street in easily ruptured plastic bags continues. And so does the custom of the city's many homeless ripping them opening looking for discarded treasures. Such a sight to behold.

Infrastructure issues, neglected buildings

As mentioned above, if things aren't firmly secured around Bogotá, they will be taken. In relation to manhole covers, their regular disappearance continues to be a problem for city authorities and citizens alike.

What's more, if and when they do vanish, it's normally some time before they are replaced. The practice of placing a 'warning stick' in them is still standard procedure.

Then you have ones that are just in a state of disrepair — as is the case for footpaths and roads in general. Be it a lack of resources or whatever, but the desire to get them up to a functional standard is obviously lacking.

There's graffiti and there's just defacing things, as above.

Graffiti

This certainly hasn't gone away; in any case, in general here, it's not a crime. Plus, you'll see some very impressive graffiti in Bogotá — in fact, it has become a popular tourist attraction.

Nonetheless, not all of it is sanctioned and not all of it can be described as art; it's just vandalism, plain and simple. How about decoratively painting the building or monument in question guys, rather than just attacking it with ugly spray paint squiggles?

So it's pretty much a case of 'as you were' with these issues in Bogotá. The (slow) roll-out of the integrated public-private transport system could be seen as at least one positive development under Gustavo Petro's stewardship. And the asses and carts seem to have largely disappeared from the streets. If only some of the same old asses running the place would disappear, too. We can dream, can't we?

*For an earlier piece on the leading candidates running for mayor see Broken Bogotá: Who can fix it?
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Broken Bogotá: Who can fix it?

This is, on the face of it, an important time coming up for Bogotá. In October the city's inhabitants will vote for a new mayor

A straight swap: Merkel for López. (Image: Pieter Hupkes.)

It's a bit of an understatement to say that the outgoing Gustavo Petro administration endured a turbulent time. And depending on where you're coming from, he either did a good job in the face of 'dark forces' undermining him, or he was the dark force returning Bogotá to uglier times.

The truth, as is generally the case in such matters, more than likely lies somewhere in the middle.

He may have tried to put his personal stamp on some things, the biggest example being the controversial waste collection changes that briefly cost him his job, but the reality is no one person can either fix or break Bogotá, as much as some like to think.

Does he leave the city in a better place, however? In short, no. But it could be argued that he has laid, or at least tried to lay, the foundations for a brighter future. 

For one, a metro sounds exciting, if the inhabitants here could figure out how to use it in an orderly, respectful fashion.

Also, as regards the rubbish debacle, at least trying to implement a culture change in how Bogotanos deal with their waste was worthy of some merit. Considering the city he has been in charge of, he has just about earned a pass mark.

Queuing up to replace him, you have the typical Colombian mix of right, centre-right and phoney left. The thing is, completely unlike the national presidency, Bogotá has gone left for its mayor with relative regularity in recent times.

However, while they all came in with grand ideals and promised much, the height of what many seemed to achieve was to anger their fellow elites and further disillusion the poor (and enjoy the trappings of power at the same time).

With that in mind, the point could be made that the city should shun the so-called left this time out. 

Yet last year's presidential candidate from the leftist (and mired in controversy) Polo Democrático, Clara López, is the early leader in the polls. She does talk a good talk for sure; and maybe the city could do with a more permanent woman's touch at the top table. (Women have served in the office, López included, but just in holding roles.)

Plus, if she has the same command and leadership skills as a woman she somewhat resembles — German Chancellor Angela Merkel (sorry Angela) — Bogotá could be on to a winner. It's best not to hold your breath just yet, though.

So if the left is to be avoided, who does the city look to?

There is President Santos' cousin, Francisco ‘Pacho’ Santos, himself a former vice president of the country, from the divisive Centro Democrático party. Yet, by all accounts he's like the joke candidate — a rightist, Colombian version of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. (However, if he was to adopt the 'Go Pato' song, tweaked to 'Go Pacho', it could work wonders.)

Pardo (right): 'If only Bogotá was a bit more like Madrid.' (Photo: Facebook.)

One other man who could fit the bill is the joint Liberal and de la U parties’ selection, former government minister Rafael Pardo. Like López, he already held the office for a brief period; his month in charge came during the Petro ‘in-out’ saga last year. 

From what this blog can gather, he certainly seems to be popular among young professionals and the middle class in general. Although, if the polls are to be believed, he has a lot of ground to make up on the Polo Democrático candidate.

Also, whether Pardo will even be on the ballot paper is now in doubt with Enrique Peñalosa's introduction to the race. The former mayor and presidential candidate announced his candidature by saying that he wants a centre-right alliance picking the best-placed runner to prevent López taking office.

Really, though, considering what has gone before, with the odd exception, it might be time to parachute in an outsider to sort the place out. The aforementioned Merkel would bring some badly needed German organisation to things. And she'd surely relish the daunting task at hand.

One of the first things she could perhaps weigh up, Berlin-in-reverse style, is constructing a north-south dividing wall.

A two-city solution, at least for a while. I wonder which side of the divide the current mayoral candidates would opt for?
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For an idea of some (just some) of the challenges facing the next Bogotá mayor, this piece from a while back gives an idea: Bogotá's 'broken window'.

Green light for 'Rape' in Colombia ... oops!

Well, it may have seemed like a good idea at the time. In fact, considering the pretty poor level of English in Colombia in general, most people probably have no issue with it, insofar as the meaning is lost on them. Plus, what it represents is something largely positive, or at least that’s the hope.

Politicians supporting Rape, including Bogotá mayor Gustavo Petro (centre). (From Facebook.)

Yet, given the initiative is due to ‘breathe new life’ into Colombia in terms of development, promoting it under its acronym Rape is a tad unfortunate. 

OK, in Spanish this obviously does not have the same meaning as it does in English. It just stands for the not-at-all controversial Región Administrativa de Planeación Especial (Administrative Region for Special Planning, or something to that effect).

However, in a country that is officially trying to significantly increase the use of English among the populace, a little more thought could have gone into this one.

Sperm Sports. Um ... (From civico.com.)

Picture the moment when the guys behind this thing look to Big Daddy USA for some financial assistance: “Any chance you could fire us a few million dollars for our novel Rape project? We’re just trying to improve the lot for our most neglected and vulnerable.” “Um, your what project?” Cue a bit of awkward explaining.

Now, even allowing for what appears a rather odd liking for not very appropriate English words in certain contexts, à la the adjacent photos, surely those working with Rape don’t really want the name. Well, you’d hope so, once they’ve been told its English significance.

These stores could prove a hit in Ireland.

So here’s a suggestion. Rename it Región Administrativa de Planeación, Infraestructura y Desarrollo (Administrative Region for Planning, Infrastructure and Development; that works, right?), or Rapid in its acronym form. Much less offensive, don’t you think? 

Indeed, it’s even progressive sounding. Heck, some people get paid big bucks for such consultancy work. Here I am proffering this for nothing.

You know where to find me guys.

Ley seca — Bogotá's deprived spit back

This blog tends to look out for the underprivileged. So when the have nots strike a blow against the haves, especially in a place riven with inequality such as Colombia, it's usually something to support. It's not often that happens here, of course.

'I predict a riot.' Millonarios fans. (Photo from deportes.terra.com.co/futbol/.)

However, Bogotá's unwashed masses have come up with a cunning plan to fight back against their wealthier superiors. In fact, it's rather ingenious considering the power to use this weapon isn't directly at their disposal. 

What they've mastered is akin to confronting a serial killer face to face and getting him to turn the gun on himself. Wonderful.

You see, some of my more hard-pressed Bogotá brethren have discovered a way to deprive the rest of us of the chance to occasionally, in a legal way, let our hair down.

This is how it works: Come up with a reason to have either a celebration or a protest, take to the streets en masse, let things become a little boisterous, violent even (attack public transport vehicles, vandalise buildings and suchlike), and then wait for the authorities to play their part. 

That latter step is the key one. For once the city authorities act, and act they will, the standard response – what they see as a panacea it seems – is to introduce ley seca, that is alcohol prohibition.

With that, all law-abiding citizens (there are some, I have been told) must make alternative plans, had they previously been thinking of socialising with a tipple or two in a bar or club. 

Meanwhile, those whose actions managed to get ley seca kicked into gear toddle back to their lightly policed barrios to enjoy a few beers practically as normal.

It's not a case of everybody being punished for the crimes of a few; it's a case of the wrong people being punished while the perpetrators' lives are barely impinged.

Like many things in Colombia, the law in theory operates very different in practice. As regards ley seca, it's one of those rare occasions when something here works against the more affluent sectors of society. 

In the wealthier parts, breaches are unlikely as licensed premises fear sanctions. Moreover, in more exuberant locations it's not easy to operate clandestinely, as opposed to a small tienda bar with only one entrance/exit, where the owner very often lives in the same building.

Also, in a country where there is a healthy underground market for a wide range of drugs and many of those involved in it come from working-class neighbourhoods, adding alcohol to the list isn't a major inconvenience for those in the know.

The idea behind this alcohol prohibition is to aid in maintaining public order when the powers that be feel some people may lose the run of themselves. 

It's introduced on a national scale for elections, while local authorities also have the power to enact it when and where they see fit. It's in the latter instance that we've had it most recently in Bogotá.

'Celebrating in peace.'

There are a number of reasons why city officials felt it was warranted. After Colombia's opening World Cup game, the victory over Greece, celebrations for some people got a little bit out of hand – besides the fact there was an election ley seca in place a few hours after the game. 

Nine deaths were attributed to the over-zealous football revelling. Of course, at least nine people die in this city most weekends for various reasons, but we tend not to hear about them.

Then, a day before Colombia's second match, fans of Bogotá's Millonarios football club took to the streets to celebrate its 68th birthday – hey, when you're going through a tough time on the field of play, you have to find something to cheer about. That these celebrations got out of control is putting it mildly.

Thus, it was to the tried-but-not-very-well-trusted ley seca that city mayor Gustavo Petro turned to, allowing Bogotanos to, 'celebrate in peace', or so the slogan went. 

Did it work? Well, it depends on who you ask and what part of the city you're referring to. 

You kind of get the feeling that authorities are happy with themselves for being proactive (just don't tell them they're being reactive) and taking effective measures. Meanwhile for a nice chunk of the population the drinking continues, just in a slightly different manner.

Of course, we're not condoning breaking the law, nor the thuggery and vandalism that a small number of citizens engage in, all in the name of celebrating. But, to reiterate, ley seca misses its intended target.

Properly, rigourously enforcing current permanent legislation is one approach in the short term.

Longer term, education is the answer.