Colombia: A system failure

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

The chaotic times Colombia is experiencing bring to mind just how inflexible a presidential system can be.

Back me or sack me

Faced with such a crisis in a parliamentary democracy, a motion of no confidence would most likely be tabled against the prime minister. 

If there was enough dissent in government ranks, the ruling party could lose such a vote. That would trigger, barring a new arrangement amongst the parties in parliament to choose a new premier, an election.

Widespread protests are ongoing in Colombia.

Either that or the prime minister, in a put-up-or-shut-up cry to the electorate, could call an election of his/her own accord. (In the Irish system, this would need to be signed off on by the largely ceremonial president, something that is normally just a matter of course.)

Think of Boris Johnson's sweeping victory in the UK's December 2019 general election. Having won the support of his party to take over as PM from Theresa May with a more hard-line Brexit position, he put it all on the line and went to the country in a bid to strengthen his mandate. 

It worked, quite stunningly. The many loud, influential voices against the Conservative leader had to grudgingly accept that the British electorate backed Boris.

Of the various demands from Colombia's protesters, some are calling for the resignation of President Iván Duque. As I mentioned in my previous post, with an election for a new head of state just 12 months away, it's unlikely in the extreme that this will happen.

However, I wonder if Duque right now wishes he was a prime minister in a parliamentary system where he could call a snap election. 

It would certainly put to the test the belief, particularly seen in international media, that the current protests are widely supported. (I must add, while Duque's own popularity appears on the floor, his party, Centro Democrático, still has a solid support base. If we can call the Centro Democrático the party in power, the opposition is far from united — it's quite a mixed bag.)

My take on it, from my humble estrato dos abode in the far north of Bogotá, is a little more nuanced.

Of course the many struggling to make ends meet want to see their lot improve. Don't we all? The killing of innocent protesters by state forces is also wholly unacceptable. Most Colombians would appear to agree that some sort of police reform is badly needed.

However, as I've written oft-times before, the more radical, mostly younger forces that appear to make up the majority of the protesters aren't exactly lovingly embraced by your average barrio-popular resident.

Unsurprisingly, there is a certain arrogance amongst the leftist, university-attending protesters towards those not of their ilk. 'The uneducated idiots don't know what's good for them' is a regular refrain.

'Is it a case that the majority of Colombians feel they're somewhere in the middle and relatively content with that?'

It's a standard line of attack by those on the left. It rarely works. In fact, it's often counterproductive.

Who are these "educated" folk to say that the construction worker or housecleaner doesn't know what he/she wants?

Colombians don't have to look too far to find an example of what can go horribly wrong when a country takes a hard turn to the left based on promises to end corruption and bring about a better life for all. Venezuela, anyone?

OK, some of you will say I'm being dramatic here. That what the protesters are really calling for is simply a fairer system, a reduction in inequality, not a version of Hugo Chávez Frías' socialism for the 21st century.

The price of fairness

In terms of some of the standout demands on the protesters' list — a guaranteed one month's minimum wage for those officially living in poverty and no university tuition fees — it's true that we're not talking about unrealistic proposals when viewed from an international perspective. 

In fact, President Duque has already announced the introduction of free, temporary for the moment albeit, public higher education for students from the lowest three strata (for a brief introduction to the strata system, see https://wwcorrigan.blogspot.com/2014/10/end-of-strata-republic.html).

All such measures, to state the obvious, must be paid for somehow. In Ireland, my home country, a relatively generous social welfare system and "free" third-level education for undergraduates is financed by redistributing wealth through what one might call "progressive" taxes. 

There are always the complaints that the richest in society aren't contributing enough and, on the other extreme, some people are just scrounging off the state.

Colombia, I'm guessing, would have to do something similar in terms of taxation. What might worry some who consider themselves to be just making ends meet, however, is that they would be asked to contribute more than they currently are to fund an expanded social welfare state. In other words, in a Colombian context, they're not as poor as they think they are.

In a country where informal, unregulated employment and illegality — officially uncontrolled and outlawed by the state but unofficially approved — are commonplace and "suffice" for many involved in such activities, rocking the system is a risk they are reluctant to take.

It remains to be seen if the proposals to significantly expand Colombia's welfare state make any real headway. By their very nature, they would require more government control in a country where there is much mistrust of state institutions. Colombia, do remember, tends to move to a conservative, raw-capitalist beat.

Without completely tearing down the house, in common with the social-democratic countries in Northern Europe, those looking for wholesale changes might find that a parliamentary system is the best vehicle to implement them.

They might also find, though, that they haven't as much support as they may believe they have.

No system is perfect. Each one has its losers and winners. Is it a case that the majority of Colombians feel they're somewhere in the middle and relatively content with that? 

On the other hand, there is the nothing-ventured-nothing-gained argument. Deciphering the amount of change needed, or not as the case may be, is a delicate balance.

Future elections, the candidates that go forward and the manifestos they present will give us some indication of where 'el pueblo colombiano' stands on all this.
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Listen to Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast here.

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'I dated President Duque's sister' — Daniel Coronell

@wwaycorrigan

Renowned Colombian journalist, Daniel Coronell, has revealed how he once dated the sister of current Colombian president, Iván Duque.

Bad romance: Coronell reveals he dated Iván Duque's sister.

Coronell, a regular critic of Duque as well as his party Centro Democrático and, more controversially, that party's leader, former president Álvaro Uribe Vélez, made the revelation in an English-language interview on Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast.

Divine intervention
'Many years ago, like 30 years ago, I was the boyfriend of Duque's sister. I loved her a lot', he said.

They even discussed plans to marry. 'I cannot imagine my life (today) if I was the brother-in-law of this president of Colombia.'

Miami-based Coronell, an atheist, joked that it was a higher power that put an end to their romance. 'There was a kind of superior decision — and I am an atheist — that broke (up) the relationship on time.'

"I loved her a lot."

Asked whether he still remains in contact with President Duque's sister, his response was a blunt 'no'.

He also spoke about his April 2020 departure from his columnist role with Colombia's leading current affairs magazine, Semana, a gig he had held for 15 years. 

His leaving coincided with sweeping changes at the publication, with well-known broadcast journalist Vicky Dávila eventually taking over as director, a move seen by some as a shift to a more populist, sensationalist editorial style.

Quoting the Italian film director, Federico Fellini, Coronell said, 'Yo nunca había visto nada igual (which translates as 'I'd never seen anything like it'), that's my opinion of Semana.'

As for writing for the magazine again, his simple reply to that question was 'probably not'.

In relation to the 2022 Colombian presidential election, the current president of news at the US-based Univisión TV channel expressed his concerns that the election would, as in 2018, become a left versus right shoot-out.

While he suggested he would be against whoever is selected by the Centro Democrático side on the right — the 'Uribe puppet' as he calls it — Coronell also has concerns about the leftist former candidate Gustavo Petro who is set to run again.

Nonetheless, if it came down to a choice between Tomás Uribe, Álvaro Uribe's son who is being mooted as a runner, and Gustavo Petro, Coronell said he would vote for the latter.

However, he predicted that the Centro Democrático may opt for a more traditional conservative candidate such as Luis Alberto Moreno.

Whatever the case, he said he hopes that a solid centrist candidate can emerge in the coming months.

Watch the YouTube interview in full at https://youtu.be/ZsWTBwGXRXY or listen to an audio-only podcast version at https://anchor.fm/brendan-corrigan/episodes/Daniel-Coronell-on-dating-Duques-sister--unmasking-Uribe--Petros-problems--Vicky-Dvilas-Semana-eq798l.
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Listen to Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast here.

Facebook: Wrong Way Corrigan — The Blog & IQuiz "The Bogotá Pub Quiz".

'Right you are, Colombia'

There is very often a significant difference between what one might like to see happen and what actually does transpire.

In this regard, in relation to our previous post, lest there be any confusion, we don't expect Humberto de la Calle to be Colombia's next president. As much as we may like what he's about, the majority of the Colombian electorate, those who actually matter in this, don't. Or at least they don't want him as their next president.

Iván Duque: The "right" fit for Colombia (photo from Facebook).

In fact, de la Calle himself more than likely realises he won't be taking up residence at Casa de Nariño.

The man who will be doing that, barring what would amount to a significant sea change in the state of play, is Iván Duque.

It's pretty clear why.

Firstly, in normal circumstances, those who bother to vote in Colombia look to the centre/centre-right when electing their president.

Taking that as a given, there are really only two other serious challengers to Duque: Sergio Fajardo and Germán Vargas Lleras.

Yet, if we are to trust the majority of opinion polls, the country's left, or more socially democratic minded we could say, are behind Gustavo Petro in significant numbers. For many in this bracket, it's Petro or nothing (or certainly not Álvaro Uribe's protégé Duque). 

So this large minority, if they get out and vote, should do enough to get their "messiah" into the decisive second-round vote. The thing is, faced with a split centre-right vote, the Petro ticket does well.

However, in a straight shoot-out against just one, let's say more acceptable candidate for this country, Petro's a losing bet. This is especially so when it's seen as a black-and-white contest, left versus right, as it will be with Duque.

It seems safe to assume that the majority of Vargas Lleras's votes would transfer to Duque. Some Fajardo voters might swing to Petro, but certainly not all of them.

Thus, for the many 'Anybody but Duque/Uribe' Petro voters, their best chance of keeping the Centro Democrático out might be to opt for Fajardo in the first round. That is, try and make it a Duque-Fajardo head-to-head. In that scenario, some more centrist-type voters who wouldn't contemplate siding with Petro might be more inclined to go with Fajardo rather than Duque.

Of course, this sort of tactical, second-guessing voting largely based on opinion polls is risky. It could all backfire.

Nonetheless, regardless of how the others line up, this looks to be Duque's contest to lose.

This brings us on to the broader issue of why Colombia tends to shun anybody with a hint of "left" to him/her when it comes to its president.

The fact that the state has been battling leftist insurgents since the 1950s is a significant factor. 

For this particular election, the murderous activities of Farc dissidents on the Ecuadorian border, the controversial arrest of a high-up ex Farc guerrilla on drug trafficking charges and the stop-start peace talks with a still active ELN reinforce the commonly held view that 'left is bad'. The political and social turmoil in neighbouring "socialist" Venezuela is also playing its part.

Yet, other Latin American countries have had to deal with a violent left without this resulting in such political thinking being pretty much dismissed outright.

One of the differences for Colombia is due to the fact that the state, with significant help from right-wing paramilitaries, systematically destroyed the political left, rendering it no more than an irritant. The discourse has been dominated by the victors, the rightist state and its media friends.

Those on the left are subversives, a threat to the Colombian republic. So the narrative goes anyway.
(It is important to note here that the United Nations estimates that the Farc and ELN accounted for 12 per cent of civilian deaths in the conflict up to 2016, with 80 per cent attributed to right-wing paramilitaries. The government was responsible for the remaining eight per cent.)

Thus, with the recent violent events mentioned above, Colombia's rightist guardians look as appealing as ever to urban dwellers across the stratum divide.

Now is not the time to rock the boat. Better the devil you know guys.
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Border battles: What next for Colombia and Venezuela?

In many ways, there is a sense of inevitability to all of this. Although those who call the shots in both Colombia and Venezuela are pretty much from the same stock, the ideologies they (claim) to follow are far from similar.

Nicolás Maduro: quashing Colombians. (Photo from Facebook.)

Considering socialist Venezuela's anti-US stance, having a neighbour that is, politically speaking anyway, rather cosy with Washington has always been a sore point.

Add in a president who has been feeling the heat both inside and outside his country since taking office in 2013 from a more charismatic and popular deceased predecessor and this attempt to unite the people against 'foreign insurgents' isn't surprising. 

It's also not without historical precedence. Problems at home? Create a distracting rallying point.

In fact, in this particular case, it's a line Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro (as Hugo Chávez before) has been spinning for some time: Colombian paramilitaries are active in his country, plotting to overthrow his rule. 

Colombia is also the source of narco-trafficking and other illegal activities that cross into Venezuela. And all these actions are getting clandestine support from none other than former Colombian president and current state senator Álvaro Uribe.

This siege mentality, whether perceived or real, appears to have reached a head for the Maduro administration with its decision to expel over a thousand Colombian citizens from the country and close the border.

Understandably, the sight of their countrymen fleeing across that border, taking whatever belongings they can before their dwellings are to be, allegedly, demolished, has angered Colombians at home.

So far, the reaction from Bogotá has been strong words only; President Juan Manuel Santos is hoping on finding a diplomatic solution to this mini-crisis. 

Such an approach is to be expected from a man currently trying to close a peace deal with guerrillas to end over 50 years of internal conflict in his country. The dove isn't about to turn into a hawk just yet.

If the more belligerent Uribe or any of his Centro Democrático party colleagues were calling the shots things could be far more delicate than they are at present. 

Indeed, Uribe has already called the Venezuelan government's action 'an attempt at genocide'. This came 24 hours after Maduro accused him of being a paramilitary leader and an assassin.

However, the idea of this escalating into anything more serious is unlikely at this remove. 

Alongside the Santos diplomacy, in many ways the Venezuelan leadership is on a tightrope. Engaging in what many at home would see as an unnecessary military confrontation with the neighbours could be the beginning of the end for Maduro and co.

We're not quite at the brink, but both parties would do well to recall their shared heritage. 

The many people in the two states who venerate the great liberator from old Spanish rule, Simón Bolívar, should remember that if he had had his way there would be no border. 

Yet right now that line in the map seems as pronounced as ever.
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Broken Bogotá: Who can fix it?

This is, on the face of it, an important time coming up for Bogotá. In October the city's inhabitants will vote for a new mayor

A straight swap: Merkel for López. (Image: Pieter Hupkes.)

It's a bit of an understatement to say that the outgoing Gustavo Petro administration endured a turbulent time. And depending on where you're coming from, he either did a good job in the face of 'dark forces' undermining him, or he was the dark force returning Bogotá to uglier times.

The truth, as is generally the case in such matters, more than likely lies somewhere in the middle.

He may have tried to put his personal stamp on some things, the biggest example being the controversial waste collection changes that briefly cost him his job, but the reality is no one person can either fix or break Bogotá, as much as some like to think.

Does he leave the city in a better place, however? In short, no. But it could be argued that he has laid, or at least tried to lay, the foundations for a brighter future. 

For one, a metro sounds exciting, if the inhabitants here could figure out how to use it in an orderly, respectful fashion.

Also, as regards the rubbish debacle, at least trying to implement a culture change in how Bogotanos deal with their waste was worthy of some merit. Considering the city he has been in charge of, he has just about earned a pass mark.

Queuing up to replace him, you have the typical Colombian mix of right, centre-right and phoney left. The thing is, completely unlike the national presidency, Bogotá has gone left for its mayor with relative regularity in recent times.

However, while they all came in with grand ideals and promised much, the height of what many seemed to achieve was to anger their fellow elites and further disillusion the poor (and enjoy the trappings of power at the same time).

With that in mind, the point could be made that the city should shun the so-called left this time out. 

Yet last year's presidential candidate from the leftist (and mired in controversy) Polo Democrático, Clara López, is the early leader in the polls. She does talk a good talk for sure; and maybe the city could do with a more permanent woman's touch at the top table. (Women have served in the office, López included, but just in holding roles.)

Plus, if she has the same command and leadership skills as a woman she somewhat resembles — German Chancellor Angela Merkel (sorry Angela) — Bogotá could be on to a winner. It's best not to hold your breath just yet, though.

So if the left is to be avoided, who does the city look to?

There is President Santos' cousin, Francisco ‘Pacho’ Santos, himself a former vice president of the country, from the divisive Centro Democrático party. Yet, by all accounts he's like the joke candidate — a rightist, Colombian version of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. (However, if he was to adopt the 'Go Pato' song, tweaked to 'Go Pacho', it could work wonders.)

Pardo (right): 'If only Bogotá was a bit more like Madrid.' (Photo: Facebook.)

One other man who could fit the bill is the joint Liberal and de la U parties’ selection, former government minister Rafael Pardo. Like López, he already held the office for a brief period; his month in charge came during the Petro ‘in-out’ saga last year. 

From what this blog can gather, he certainly seems to be popular among young professionals and the middle class in general. Although, if the polls are to be believed, he has a lot of ground to make up on the Polo Democrático candidate.

Also, whether Pardo will even be on the ballot paper is now in doubt with Enrique Peñalosa's introduction to the race. The former mayor and presidential candidate announced his candidature by saying that he wants a centre-right alliance picking the best-placed runner to prevent López taking office.

Really, though, considering what has gone before, with the odd exception, it might be time to parachute in an outsider to sort the place out. The aforementioned Merkel would bring some badly needed German organisation to things. And she'd surely relish the daunting task at hand.

One of the first things she could perhaps weigh up, Berlin-in-reverse style, is constructing a north-south dividing wall.

A two-city solution, at least for a while. I wonder which side of the divide the current mayoral candidates would opt for?
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For an idea of some (just some) of the challenges facing the next Bogotá mayor, this piece from a while back gives an idea: Bogotá's 'broken window'.

Four more years: The least-bad option?

Right. The time for posturing and talking is almost over. We've known the participants for some time, now we're about to find out which one has what it takes to go all the way. 

Most of us, more or less, have a pretty decent idea of who the genuine contenders are versus the no-hopers, but in these final days minor hiccups could have a detrimental effect on the eventual outcome. Nobody can take anything for granted.

So, is it to the right or to the not-so right? (Photo from caliescribe.com.)

Yes, it certainly promises to be some spectacle in neighbouring Brazil when the World Cup kicks off next month. But before we become engrossed in that, there is the 'small', more imminent matter of Colombia's presidential election to keep us semi-entertained.

In fact, it's pretty much assured that the Colombian electorate will be asked to go the polls twice before it knows who its new top man is (for, if the opinion polls are to believed and barring some almighty surprise, it's going to be a man). 

That's because the incumbent seeking re-election, Juan Manuel Santos, has let what was by all accounts a rather healthy lead at the beginning of the year slip as polling day (25 May) approaches. Thus, none of the five candidates is set to get more than the 50 per cent of the votes required to win without the need for a second round.

Santos' nearest challenger has turned out to be, somewhat surprisingly, the Centro Democrático's (Democratic Centre that is; but generally more right of centre) Óscar Iván Zuluaga. 

His surge in popularity has been surprising given the fact that a few months ago the running joke was that when he arrived home each evening, the security guards at his apartment complex had to ask him for ID because he was so unknown.*

However, a mixture of the Centro Democrático getting its political machine into gear and some Santos failings has seen the gap between the two close considerably. 

On the former, the presence of the divisive yet still hugely popular figure for some, ex-president Álvaro Uribe, has been a major help. A dollop of hacking also seems to have worked wonders. 

Indeed, in what could be seen as a measure of the pigheadedness of many Centro Democrático supporters, the sight of Zuluaga 'talking business' with a hacker about delivering a blow to Santos doesn't appear to have done him much harm (see http://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/el-video-del-hacker-con-oscar-ivan-zuluaga/388438-3).

For his own part, how the current president handled – or not, as it appeared to be – the what-turned-out-to-be-temporary sacking of Bogotá mayor Gustavo Petro was problematic. His lack of leadership in what was a farcical period in Colombian politics has left people from all sides questioning his ability to govern.

In a contest where there is no stand-out choice, small things matter.

It's also effectively a first-past-the-post system. The stipulation that there must be a second vote between the top two candidates should no one receive more than 50 per cent first time out is just a delay on that. 

So bearing in mind the conservative nature of Colombia's electorate (those who vote that is, anyway), reflected in the opinion polls, this election is a straight shoot-out between Santos and Zuluaga.

President 'As Cool as it Gets for Now'? (Photo: juanmanuelsantospresidente.com.)

The others at this stage are just also-rans. In any case, the only one who is arguably offering any real alternative to the type of president Colombia has consistently returned is the (mild) leftist Clara López. The rest are very much 'as you were' with really only superficial differences.

Thus, Colombia, is it to be four more years of the 'devil you know', best described, at a push, as steady? Or do you go with the slightly unknown, but of the arrogant, brash Uribe school and party, Zuluaga?

Now, the argument can be made, with reason, that all in the running have Uribe links (as mentioned, for some Colombians that's a good thing). Even 'the darling of the left' López is tainted in this regard; and in a much more intimate way than the other candidates.

But old romances apart, the Zuluaga ticket represents the most potent political link to Uribe. In power, that basically means more division and discord, much less consensus.

Santos' decision to open up peace talks with the country's guerillas – the inherent problems in them apart – shows he is willing to compromise and make sacrifices. 

After more than 50 years of internal, zero-sum strife, 'the exterminate rather than communicate' line still favoured by many in the Uribe faction needs readdressing.**

There is also the theory that a second and final-term president has a little more freedom and can be more daring when released from the re-election straitjacket. Perhaps the best is yet to come from Santos?

Finally, taking it as a given that this election really is just a Santos-Zuluaga head-to-head, there is another strong reason to opt for Santos first up. 

The date for the second round, should it be required, is fixed for the weekend Colombia gets its World Cup campaign under way. And with elections here comes the 'dreaded' Ley Seca ('Dry Law' i.e. a ban on selling alcohol).

Perish the thought of having to watch the opening salvoes in Brazil from the mundaneness of an apartment.

Colombia, the choice is yours.
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*See the earlier Colombia's presidential election: The candidates (and their Irish 'equivalents') for a more of an 'understanding' of all the hopefuls.

**For more on the peace talks, check out An unwanted peace?