The Pastrana-Uribe alliance: Colombia's path to 'redemption'

For many of the old and not-so-old bearded lefties, both men and, um, women, it's a nightmare scenario. A presidential candidate under the auspices of former heads of state Álvaro Uribe and Andrés Pastrana sweeping to victory in next year's election.

The two ex-presidents, anti the peace deal with the Farc that's currently in operation, have come together in a grand alliance of the winning 'no' side in last year's referendum on the peace accords. The far-too-liberal agenda must be checked, the Good Ship Colombia needs to return to calmer waters, and these doyens of the country's politics can guide her there.

It's not clear at this remove who'll be the actual face on the ballot paper, the Pastrana-Uribe puppet on a string so to put it, but with the big guns in his (it's sure to be a man) corner, it practically doesn't matter.

The likely lads: Uribe (l) with Pastrana. (Photo from Facebook.)

Now, while we've written here before that when it comes to genuine choice in Colombian elections it's generally la misma mierda ('the same sh*t') whatever you're having, there might just be merit in the 'new, old way' with Messrs Pastrana and Uribe. Here's why:

A firm hand

Let's be honest, if you give sneaky characters an inch, they'll take a mile and then some. In these parts, we've plenty of such types from all walks of life. From a political perspective, some of those dastardly ex-Farc lads are now trying to pass themselves off as honest politicians alongside other leftist relics looking to impose their far out ideas on the country.

It's not exactly a case of nipping this in the bud as it's been going on throughout President Santos' stewardship, but the Pastrano-Uribe ticket can stop the rot. The old Uribe line was, 'A firm hand, a big heart', so it's time we saw that firm hand again (it's better not to ask how firm that hand might be; rest assured it will take no prisoners when needs be).

Sure Colombia could do with a bit of population pruning; look no further than these guys for that.

The Lord is my shepherd

Not only does the country appear to be floating more towards nasty socialism akin to the mess that is Venezuela, but it also seems to be becoming more secular.

The fundamentalist Catholic candidate Alejandro Ordóñez provides one anecdote to that, but Pastrano-Uribe may just have a broader, whisper it, 'sexier' appeal.

The papal visit later this year is set to ensure that Colombia's religious fervour gets a good shot in the arm as well, not that it really needs it (as hypocritical as it tends to be all the same).

Religion still matters here and Pastrano-Uribe has that base covered as good as the best of them.

More Maduro than Maduro himself

Speaking of Venezuela, we've the Nicolás Maduro factor next door.

The Pastrano-Uribe alliance could be seen as fighting fire with fire to tackle the firebrand, if rather clownish, premier. Counter one idiotic proposal or statement with another. The perfect blocking tactic. Genius.

Tweet like Trump

You can't be a top president nowadays, so it goes anyway, without being a dab hand at the old Twitter machine.

In this regard, Álvaro Uribe even out trumps Trump — indeed, it might have been Uribe who The Donald took inspiration from. He's been shooting off (careful now) controversial, divisive tweets for years. No doubt he'll be extolling the virtues of such a strategy to his anointed one for this election.

It's not enough to be a real-life bloody commander, you've got to be a virtual killing machine these days, too.

Whatever the case, there certainly shouldn't be a dull moment with the Pastrana-Uribe alliance in the mix in the run-up to round one of the presidential election next May. Just sit back and enjoy the ride we're all going to be taken on; there's not much else we can do.
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Colombia's path to peace?

We’re not big fans of hyperbole here and, thankfully, most Colombians appear to be that way too. 

Hence the somewhat indifferent reaction from many locals to the official revelation of what has been one of the worst-kept secrets in recent Colombian politics: President Juan Manuel Santos’s government has had preliminary discussions with the country’s long-standing left-wing guerrillas, Farc.*

El Presidente: Can he really make peace with the Farc?

Depending on whom you speak to, this indifference to the news verges on the slightly optimistic to the pessimistic. One thing’s for sure, you’ll be hard-pressed to find anybody overjoyed that ‘proper, full-scale’ peace talks are in the offing. 

It’s all down to reconciliation weariness really – Colombia has been here before on many occasions. The fact that the Farc is still involved in bombings and kidnappings tells you just how successful those previous attempts at fostering peace went down.

So what, if anything, has changed this time around? Well, of course, there’s a different administration in place intent on ‘learning from the errors of the past’. It’s the very least President Santos and his team could try. He certainly is saying the right things in this regard. 

He made it clear in his state broadcast that the country’s military would remain in 'every centimetre of national territory'. That was an obvious reference to the failed strategy of former President Andrés Pastrana who, in 1999, demilitarised a vast zone in the south of the country to facilitate peace talks with the rebels. 

While negotiations did take place, this buffer zone allowed the Farc to rebuild, recruit and reinforce itself in relative comfort. The legacy of this is still being felt today as it is in this area that the group remains at its strongest.

Now, while Farc may still have strength in its unofficial safe zones, generally speaking it would appear to be at the weakest point in its history. 

It has suffered key military setbacks against the state’s armed forces in the last few years with the recent upsurge in its attacks seen by some as the desperate last kicks of a cornered beast. Sitting down with the government could be its best option right now. Time will tell how sincere the group is about the whole process.

'The Path to Peace': Far from straightforward.

However, as in any peace talks, one must ask the question, can an essential balance be found that would be key to any potential lasting settlement? 

From this remove, it would appear that the government – and, by extension, the vast majority of the country’s inhabitants – has far more to gain. Obviously, if Farc agrees to lay down its weapons and cease attacks that’s good news for all who want peace. 

For Santos, if things go that well so soon, it should do his faltering approval rating no end of good, helping him in his quest for re-election in 2014. 

Peace negotiations have been part of his manifesto – quite apart from his predecessor, the hard-line right-winger Álvaro Uribe who has been very vociferous in his opposition to talking with ‘terrorists’, attacking the current administration’s policy at every opportunity.

A military-defunct Farc is clearly the very least the Colombian government and the majority of the country’s electorate will look for in any agreement. 

In such a scenario, the Farc, in some form, would surely look for political legitimacy and perhaps immunity from prosecution for some or all of its top members. This is looking at it from a political-conflict point of view.

Yet, the days of this struggle being purely about political ideology – if they ever were – are long gone. There is a far more powerful agent at play and it is this that is at the crux of the issue here: the control of the drugs trade. 

For Farc to go legit and allow unrestricted official access to its white-gold territories will be the equivalent of signing its own death warrant – mainstream political presence or not. 

While we might know what comes out of the depths of Colombia’s jungles, what actually happens inside them and exactly where remains about as mysterious as the inner workings of a rugby scrum. And for those working in the illegal drugs trade, that’s the way they want it to remain.

The 'white gold' in its ore form, the coca leaf.

It has been mentioned on these pages before that the current strategy by most elected governments, Colombia included, in tackling the narcotics underworld is not working (see ‘Dealing with the Dealers’: http://bit.ly/NXGLEl). 

Calls for a new front in this war, however, are gathering pace, not least in Latin America (Santos himself has spoken of the need for a new approach), a land that knows more about this issue than most. 

Take the illegal drugs trade out of subversives’ hands and their power and wealth are greatly reduced. In fact, for most underworld operators, their raison d’etre practically disappears.

So while there will be much focus on the political manoeuvring in the upcoming dialogue between the Colombian government and Farc (with the ELN, the country’s second-largest rebel group, indicating it also wants to be part of this process) the weight afforded to the drugs issue will be interesting to see.**

You can only ignore the white powdered elephant in the room for so long before it starts blowing in your face.

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* Farc stands for Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia or Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia in English.
** ELN stands for Ejército de Liberación Nacional or National Liberation Army in English.

For another article on a related theme, see: ‘Dangerous Colombia Part II’ http://bit.ly/OyCBRS