2021: Reasons to be fearful

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

New year, new hope. And after the stagnation that was 2020 for many — save for the comfortable, virtue-signalling folk who have seen their lot actually improve — there appears to be more of a focus than usual on the positives that lie in store for us over the next 12 months.

Uribe, mi presidente. (Image from Facebook.)

Nonetheless, positivity is one thing, reality another — we'll leave to one side the postmodernist view on what is real and what isn't, only to say that when you're dead, you're dead. So while we'll do our best to carry on regardless, here are some reasons to be less than optimistic that 2021 will be brighter than 2020.

Covid chaos

Let's start with the most obvious. Regardless of where you stand on the efficacy of lockdowns and the true severity of coronavirus (in a recent interview, the historian Niall Ferguson noted how in terms of lethality the disease isn't even in the top 25 of global pandemics humanity has suffered), the closedown-to-suppress-the-virus approach has been adopted by many countries.

For sure, with vaccines now on the scene, hopes are high in richer nations that they'll be able to get on top of the situation in the first six months of this year or so.

However, considering the way our decision-makers and much of the media have become completely engrossed in every detail of this virus and its modus operandi to the detriment of pretty much all other areas of life, those who hope that by this time next year we'll be in AC (After Coronavirus) times need a reality check.

'Closer to Colombia, strong rhetoric against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has the potential to morph into something more than mere words.'

What's more, emerging-market countries, such as here in Colombia, look set to be well behind the curve in any vaccine bounce. 

By going along with the richer nations' moment of crisis in their otherwise comfortable existence, in following the lead of said richer nations and neglecting other, arguably more serious problems, developing countries will be cast further adrift. Inequality will widen, not only between nations but within them as well.

One final covid "fear" is the continuation of Colombian President Iván Duque's cringeworthy, quite condescending evening TV addresses. Mercifully, they are easily avoidable. I'm clearly not the only one who has had enough. The owner of one of my panadería offices changes channel as soon as El Presidente comes on.

Biden bombs

Much of the world will breathe a sigh of relief when US President Donald J. Trump vacates the White House on 20 January. In his place comes a veteran establishment figure, a man who many view as a safe pair of hands, Democrat Joe Biden.

The thing is, after four years of a president who put America (the United States part of it, that is) first, who largely preferred isolationism rather than internationalism, a Biden administration will look to reassert Washington's influence on the global stage. How that manifests itself over the next few years will be fascinating to watch, from a safe distance that is, if one can be found.

OK, another flare-up in the Middle East doesn't exactly usher in Armageddon, but an outwardly bullish, confident China is sure to lay down the gauntlet to what it must perceive as a weak, disjointed rival.

Closer to Colombia, strong rhetoric against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — a China ally of sorts — has the potential to morph into something more than mere words. In fact, the centrist faction of the Democratic Party might see it as a way to show it's not being highjacked by the left, as well as adhering to its stated global clampdown on corruption.

In addition, "corrective" action against Caracas would do no harm at all in helping to boost support among certain Hispanic voters who loathe the socialist wing hovering in the USA's blue corner.

And attacking fellow human beings is more box office than fighting a microscopic, common enemy of mankind.

Uribe presente, es mi presidente

One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. So while large swathes of the Colombian electorate will be thrilled with the prospect of an Uribe running for the presidency next year, many will be filled with dread.

Reports in late 2020 suggested that Tomás Uribe, son of former president, the divisive Álvaro Uribe, was being sounded out by Centro Democrático officials to run for the country's top job.

By all accounts, it's a long shot — he's reputedly not keen — but if Colombia was to put an Uribe back in Casa de Nariño, it would open the door for old scores to be settled, à la US President George W. Bush finishing off some of his father George H.'s business.

In such a scenario, we may not need the US to instigate war with the neighbours to the east. The Uribes are coming for Chavismo in all its manifestations, abroad and at home.

Whatever transpires over the course of the next 12 months, it promises to be an exciting ride.
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Democrats' Biden time strengthens Trump's card

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]
In January of this strangest of years, unaware of what was coming down the line, I made a couple of what could be seen as rash decisions.

Four more years of President Trump? It looks quite possible now. (Image from Facebook.)

One was to resign from my full-time, relatively well-paid marketing job. I'd had enough and I wanted to focus on some personal, yet financially impotent projects.

Along came corona

The other was to write a piece suggesting that a Donald Trump re-election might be the least-bad option for the United States of America. 

Despite what some doomsayers had predicted when he won his first term in 2016, the world didn't descend into complete chaos. There was no apocalypse, much to the disappointment of some radical leftists. 

What's more, at the time of writing, there appeared to be a real possibility that the Democrats would select a candidate too leftist for the majority of the electorate, thereby playing into Trump's hands.

Then, along came coronavirus and the Black Lives Matter protests. Things certainly did get quite chaotic, apocalyptic even, the world over and particularly so in the Land of Opportunity. 

The mishandling of both was levelled firmly — and understandably if exaggeratedly — at the feet of President Trump. 

It was looking so grim for the incumbent that it seemed the Democrats could put forward Nicolás Maduro — replete in a US tracksuit to entice some jingoistic Republicans to the cause — and still expect to comfortably win November's election.

That fascinating prospect aside, up until recently, the biggest challenge for the challengers had been to ensure that their actual candidate, Joe Biden, stayed alive. The rest would take care of itself.

However, with the conventions of the Big Two now done and dusted, what were considered advantages for the Democrats just a few short weeks ago now appear to be working against them.

Whilst receiving widespread support initially, many US citizens are growing increasingly tired, angered even, by the ongoing Black Lives Matter protests. The Democrats, having fully supported the movement, are struggling to distance themselves from the rioting.

'While the thoughts of a Trump victory are anathema to many, it could be the saving grace for the Democrats, a realisation that lunging left is politically suicidal.'

Trump's playing of the law-and-order-president card appears to be hitting a sweet spot, despite the opposition pointing out, correctly, that the violence is happening under his watch. The thing is, while he is commander-in-chief, he can easily and effectively shift the blame. 

Radical leftists, who are pulling the Democrats' strings, are behind it all. Images of the burning of his effigy by protesters serve to reinforce the point. 

With time and a November endorsement, he will restore calm. A Biden presidency, on the other hand, will do anything but.

The right calls?

The current pandemic will, of course, play a big role in the outcome of the election. 

Yet, despite the relatively high death toll in the US, should employment figures continue to improve ahead of election day, Trump has another positive to play with. 'I had the economy roaring BC (Before Coronavirus), and the signs are it will bounce back quickly under my watch. All you'll get with Sleepy Joe are higher taxes and rising unemployment.' This is sure to resonate with many undecided, centrist voters.

The one, really only, bipartisan issue is the need to deal with a menacing China. 

Again, Trump can point to the hard line he has already taken in this regard. Can a soft-centred Democrat Party with its radical leftist undercurrent really be trusted to play tough with Beijing? It's a pitch that the many doubters may just find too worrying to let slide.

Also, while the thoughts of a Trump victory are anathema to many, it could actually be the saving grace for the Democrats, a realisation that lunging left is politically suicidal. 

By veering back towards the centre, the party would become a far more formidable force for a Republican Party that will have its own soul-searching to do post Trump.

So, as we move into the final quarter of a year that many of us wish we could wipe from memory, my January rashness, despite all that's happened, might actually prove to be rather prudent. 

Getting out of my job when I did may have been the right move. I don't feel worse off mentally in any case. And the US might just decide that it is better to go with 'the devil you know'.

Whatever happens, the closing chapters of 2020 are set to be intriguing.
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Colombia's and Ireland's eastern troubles

Making comparisons between Colombia and Ireland is about as useful an exercise as sweeping leaves in a hurricane. 

Even where there are similarities, something previously touched on by this blog, their day-to-day relevance would seem fairly minuscule. Colombian-Irish ties, while apparently growing, are still pretty weak.

Colombia and Ireland: Dealing with 'nasty' neighbours.

Nonetheless, as an Irishman based in Colombia for the last eight years, becoming aware of these similarities has been rather interesting, insightful even.

While the posts referenced above made internal comparisons, here we're going to add an international dimension.

Nasty neighbour to the east

Basically — stick with us here — Venezuela could be seen as Britain, and that's not just because of its geographical position to Colombia's east. 

Historically, Venezuela was seen as the more advanced, organised and cosmopolitan country. In contrast, Colombia was (is) a violent backwater, insular and conservative. Friendly folk for sure but untrustworthy schemers of sorts. (See where we're going with this?)

A lot of the locals with any get-up-and-go did just that. They left. What's more, a not-insignificant number of them went to that more developed neighbour to the east for a better life. Well, either there or to the US.

"The political problems next door could see the old inferior nations return to their inglorious past."

However, over the last few years these violent backwaters, Colombia and Ireland, have found their mojos, of sorts, while the eastern neighbours appear to have hit the self-destruct button. 

Now, not only are those who had emigrated coming back but people from other countries are keen to give the current 'cool kids' a try, including many from the near east, reversing long-standing migration flows. (The influx of Venezuelans to Colombia needs no elaboration while there has been a significant rise in the number of Brits applying for Irish passports pre-Brexit).

Uncomfortable at the top

Added to this, of late, have been the neighbours' current political problems and the risk of contagion to the now, um, flourishing 'cool kids'. 

As the latter harbour men who have a proven track record at subversion, there is a belief that it will only take a little bit of instability to plunge them and their centre-right administrations right back into the bad old days of violence and economic decline. 

Of course, outside 'help' isn't a prerequisite for this but it can be an important catalyst.

The eastern guys, for their part, have leaders who seem hell-bent on getting their way or, as some view it, are being unfairly hindered from doing their job. 

Now, while a Jeremy Corbyn victory in the UK's December election would work wonders for this analogy from a left-right perspective, it's not completely necessary. 

Bungling Boris Johnson, while politically poles apart from Nicolás Maduro, fits the narrative here in so many other ways. For one, you've both men's penchant for putting their foot in it.

As the problems to the east show no signs of easing, there's a bit of schadenfreude on display in some quarters of the once inferior nations. 

However, looking down from a lofty position not only doesn't sit well with them but it also tends to be followed by a swift, painful comedown. 'Back in your place with you.'

When that comedown has well and truly landed, by their own doing or otherwise, assistance from the eastern neighbours will yet again be badly needed. After all, these countries have more in common than they may like to admit.
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Making Bogotá 'mejor para todos'

The last week in Bogotá saw a fair amount of uproar  —  and traffic disruption — following the decision by city authorities to ban motorcyclists from carrying male pillion passengers.

The measure, which applies to only certain sectors of the metropolis, is being introduced in a bid to curb (pun not really intended) street crime. You see, there is a chance in these parts that two men riding a motorbike are up to no good.

In Pablo Escobar's time, the wise move would have been to run for cover if you saw such a sight approaching. It mightn't be as dramatic these days, but there is a potential criminal risk all the same. Hence the move to outlaw them.

You just can't trust those who wear baseball caps ... (From Facebook.)

It's all part of Mayor Enrique Peñalosa's plans to build a Bogotá 'better for everyone' ('mejor para todos [y todas]', we mustn't leave out the ladies). These things take time.

To lend a helping hand in that pursuit (you can thank us later), here are another few brainwaves that should whip the city into line (she'll be a paradise in no time):

If the cap fits ...

Let's face it, anyone wearing a baseball cap is surely on the wrong side of the law. Well, except for the police officers who actually have them as part of their uniform. They are the law, of course.

Yet rounding up all others who wear them would no doubt result in a big reduction in crime.

It would also significantly reduce the number of people freely wandering about Bogotá. A win-win scenario if ever there was one.

Where would we keep all these captured young and not-so-young punks? We could send them to Venezuela. They'd feel right at home with President Nicolás Maduro and all the other crazy, baseball cap-clad politicians over there. Not only that, but it would help to provide a balance to the massive influx of Venezuelans to these parts, too. Let's get on it, post-haste.

Line out

Sticking with matters of the head (we're a thoughtful bunch), what about those lads with that James Rodríguez-style line in their hair? We have to question the motives of grown men who dare to care enough to do it. Line in the hair one day, up to lewd acts in public the next.

Out with them, we say. Or at least have them sent to the barbers to get the line shaved out.

You're kidding nobody with that look, James ... (From Facebook.)

No-child policy 

Nobody said cleaning up Bogotá was going to be easy. Sometimes you have to be cruel to be kind.

What we're calling for here is abortions for any pregnant stratum one or two women. The same for unemployed stratum-three women.

That should lead to a fall in the number of delinquents in the future.

Those in the other strata are fine. Colombia's more well-to-do classes don't commit crimes you see. You don't have to when everything's set up in your favour.

Queue chaos

OK, this one might be more of a personal crusade and may not actually improve things unlike the fine measures above. We're allowed one indulgence, though, aren't we?

It also could be seen as both drastic and almost impossible to implement, but hey, such concerns haven't stopped Colombian authorities before.

Basically, anyone who jumps a queue is to be sent for some sort of intense corrective coaching, which may or may not involve mild torture. This would likewise apply to those who block the doors of the Transmilenio, a particular bugbear of ours.

If introduced along with the measures above it would result in practically every inhabitant of Bogotá having to face the law. So be it. A city's gotta do what a city's gotta do.

We could suggest another few areas to 'come down on', but let's see how we get on with these solid proposals for the moment. We don't want to run the risk of turning the place into a police state. Firm but fair is how we see it.

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The Pastrana-Uribe alliance: Colombia's path to 'redemption'

For many of the old and not-so-old bearded lefties, both men and, um, women, it's a nightmare scenario. A presidential candidate under the auspices of former heads of state Álvaro Uribe and Andrés Pastrana sweeping to victory in next year's election.

The two ex-presidents, anti the peace deal with the Farc that's currently in operation, have come together in a grand alliance of the winning 'no' side in last year's referendum on the peace accords. The far-too-liberal agenda must be checked, the Good Ship Colombia needs to return to calmer waters, and these doyens of the country's politics can guide her there.

It's not clear at this remove who'll be the actual face on the ballot paper, the Pastrana-Uribe puppet on a string so to put it, but with the big guns in his (it's sure to be a man) corner, it practically doesn't matter.

The likely lads: Uribe (l) with Pastrana. (Photo from Facebook.)

Now, while we've written here before that when it comes to genuine choice in Colombian elections it's generally la misma mierda ('the same sh*t') whatever you're having, there might just be merit in the 'new, old way' with Messrs Pastrana and Uribe. Here's why:

A firm hand

Let's be honest, if you give sneaky characters an inch, they'll take a mile and then some. In these parts, we've plenty of such types from all walks of life. From a political perspective, some of those dastardly ex-Farc lads are now trying to pass themselves off as honest politicians alongside other leftist relics looking to impose their far out ideas on the country.

It's not exactly a case of nipping this in the bud as it's been going on throughout President Santos' stewardship, but the Pastrano-Uribe ticket can stop the rot. The old Uribe line was, 'A firm hand, a big heart', so it's time we saw that firm hand again (it's better not to ask how firm that hand might be; rest assured it will take no prisoners when needs be).

Sure Colombia could do with a bit of population pruning; look no further than these guys for that.

The Lord is my shepherd

Not only does the country appear to be floating more towards nasty socialism akin to the mess that is Venezuela, but it also seems to be becoming more secular.

The fundamentalist Catholic candidate Alejandro Ordóñez provides one anecdote to that, but Pastrano-Uribe may just have a broader, whisper it, 'sexier' appeal.

The papal visit later this year is set to ensure that Colombia's religious fervour gets a good shot in the arm as well, not that it really needs it (as hypocritical as it tends to be all the same).

Religion still matters here and Pastrano-Uribe has that base covered as good as the best of them.

More Maduro than Maduro himself

Speaking of Venezuela, we've the Nicolás Maduro factor next door.

The Pastrano-Uribe alliance could be seen as fighting fire with fire to tackle the firebrand, if rather clownish, premier. Counter one idiotic proposal or statement with another. The perfect blocking tactic. Genius.

Tweet like Trump

You can't be a top president nowadays, so it goes anyway, without being a dab hand at the old Twitter machine.

In this regard, Álvaro Uribe even out trumps Trump — indeed, it might have been Uribe who The Donald took inspiration from. He's been shooting off (careful now) controversial, divisive tweets for years. No doubt he'll be extolling the virtues of such a strategy to his anointed one for this election.

It's not enough to be a real-life bloody commander, you've got to be a virtual killing machine these days, too.

Whatever the case, there certainly shouldn't be a dull moment with the Pastrana-Uribe alliance in the mix in the run-up to round one of the presidential election next May. Just sit back and enjoy the ride we're all going to be taken on; there's not much else we can do.
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Colombia's Venezuelans

In a similar fashion to our Bogotá 'bull' report a few weeks back, the following is the original script of our latest report for RTÉ's World Report, this time on the growing number of Venezuelans entering and staying in Colombia. You can listen to the report here (from 20' 55'', edited for time reasons) and follow the script below:

Most of the traffic is coming into Colombia these days, not the other way around.

'We don't have to go too far back in history to find a time when some Colombians found refuge in neighbouring Venezuela, to escape the terrible bloodshed and uncertainty back home. 

Politically speaking, before Hugo Chávez's Socialism for the 21st century took hold in Venezuela, the two countries were quite similar. The difference was Colombia was seen as a violent backwater best avoided, while Venezuela, from a Western, capitalist perspective in any case, was a model for the rest of Latin America to follow.

It's not stretching it to say that now we have the reverse situation: Colombia's external image seems to get brighter by the day while Venezuela's plummets.

In Venezuela's pre-socialist days, so it is said, 'la Colombiana' was the one who came to clean the house of the well-off, the one who worked in the bakeries and bars, the work many locals felt was beneath them. 

Now it's the Venezuelans — men, women and children — who are crossing the border in their thousands to work in whatever they can find in Colombia. Chronic food and medical shortages, hyper-inflation and safety concerns, alongside a seemingly incompetent government to deal with these issues are what have them leaving in droves.

How many have actually relocated here is difficult to measure exactly. This is simply because on a daily basis the toing and froing of Venezuelans into Colombia, and vice versa, all along the over 2000 kilometre-long land border has been constant and not tightly regulated. [This is when the border hasn't been closed by order of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro that is, as has happened on occasions over the last couple of years.]

The United Nations Refugee Agency in Bogotá does state that there has been "a notable increase of Venezuelan nationals coming to and remaining in Colombia." 

From an official viewpoint, however, it acknowledges the figures it works off from Colombian immigration are not terribly accurate and more than likely underestimate the volume.

Alongside the informal, unregistered crossings, the agency points to the lack of data on Venezuelan nationals remaining in Colombia as well as the fact that official asylum claims are quite low as this process in Colombia is somewhat cumbersome.

Notwithstanding the difficulties of getting an accurate figure, Daniel Pages of the Association of Venezuelans in Colombia estimates that between legals and illegals there are over 1.2 million of his countrymen currently in Colombia. 

The association itself, set up five years ago to provide assistance for Venezuelans looking to live and work legally in Colombia, has now over 15,000 people on its books.

Alongside the estimated numbers, Colombians themselves are quick to tell you that the Venezuelan accent is being heard much more of late than had been the case just a couple of years ago. And we're not talking here about illegal border intrusions into Colombia by Venezuelan military personnel, which caused a stir recently, damaging further official relations between the two republics.

No, this isn't just temporary border-hopping; Venezuelans are travelling as far into Colombia as Bogotá to set up shop.

A visit to any of the capital's bog-standard bread shops or restaurants and it's a safe bet that there'll be at least one Venezuelan working there.

The problem, as some locals see it, is that these unregistered foreign workers are taking potential jobs from the many hard-pressed Colombians in need of employment. 

As store owner Laura Lancheros puts it: "Many of these unregistered Venezuelans coming here are willing to work for anything, so for some employers they're a good option because there's no real paperwork involved in hiring them."

Indeed, in Bogotá for one, there appears to be little sympathy for the plight of their neighbours. A lot of this stems from the Venezuelan government's decision to remove thousands of Colombian nationals from the country a couple of years back, the deported accused of being involved in paramilitary activities and other illegalities. 

President Maduro's almost daily jibes at Colombia also don't help, where he regularly accuses it as the source of many of his own country's problems.

Be that as it may, for the Venezuelans now living and working in Colombia, many are quick to distance themselves from what their government says and does.

What’s more, as 25-year-old Bogotá bread shop employee Angie Salcedo, who arrived here from her native eastern Venezuela earlier this year, points out: "Some Colombians would do well to remember the past. Venezuela was always welcoming to foreigners, but now that we're in trouble, we're not getting the same treatment from others. Not everybody is received with open arms."

A young, university-educated woman, Angie's story is typical of the Venezuelans flocking to Colombia: here illegally, engaged in unskilled work for barely the minimum wage.

Angie's co-worker, 22-year-old Yorkely Casanova, sees Colombia as just a temporary stopover. Like other Venezuelans, she has her eyes set on Chile as the process to become a legal worker there is shorter, more straightforward and less expensive than Colombia.

For the moment she, along with her husband, are working 12-hour plus days for no more than 10 US dollars a day to save money for that journey further south.

It's far from ideal, but as Yorkely sadly notes, it's better than being in Venezuela right now.'
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Border battles: What next for Colombia and Venezuela?

In many ways, there is a sense of inevitability to all of this. Although those who call the shots in both Colombia and Venezuela are pretty much from the same stock, the ideologies they (claim) to follow are far from similar.

Nicolás Maduro: quashing Colombians. (Photo from Facebook.)

Considering socialist Venezuela's anti-US stance, having a neighbour that is, politically speaking anyway, rather cosy with Washington has always been a sore point.

Add in a president who has been feeling the heat both inside and outside his country since taking office in 2013 from a more charismatic and popular deceased predecessor and this attempt to unite the people against 'foreign insurgents' isn't surprising. 

It's also not without historical precedence. Problems at home? Create a distracting rallying point.

In fact, in this particular case, it's a line Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro (as Hugo Chávez before) has been spinning for some time: Colombian paramilitaries are active in his country, plotting to overthrow his rule. 

Colombia is also the source of narco-trafficking and other illegal activities that cross into Venezuela. And all these actions are getting clandestine support from none other than former Colombian president and current state senator Álvaro Uribe.

This siege mentality, whether perceived or real, appears to have reached a head for the Maduro administration with its decision to expel over a thousand Colombian citizens from the country and close the border.

Understandably, the sight of their countrymen fleeing across that border, taking whatever belongings they can before their dwellings are to be, allegedly, demolished, has angered Colombians at home.

So far, the reaction from Bogotá has been strong words only; President Juan Manuel Santos is hoping on finding a diplomatic solution to this mini-crisis. 

Such an approach is to be expected from a man currently trying to close a peace deal with guerrillas to end over 50 years of internal conflict in his country. The dove isn't about to turn into a hawk just yet.

If the more belligerent Uribe or any of his Centro Democrático party colleagues were calling the shots things could be far more delicate than they are at present. 

Indeed, Uribe has already called the Venezuelan government's action 'an attempt at genocide'. This came 24 hours after Maduro accused him of being a paramilitary leader and an assassin.

However, the idea of this escalating into anything more serious is unlikely at this remove. 

Alongside the Santos diplomacy, in many ways the Venezuelan leadership is on a tightrope. Engaging in what many at home would see as an unnecessary military confrontation with the neighbours could be the beginning of the end for Maduro and co.

We're not quite at the brink, but both parties would do well to recall their shared heritage. 

The many people in the two states who venerate the great liberator from old Spanish rule, Simón Bolívar, should remember that if he had had his way there would be no border. 

Yet right now that line in the map seems as pronounced as ever.
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Broken Bogotá: Who can fix it?

This is, on the face of it, an important time coming up for Bogotá. In October the city's inhabitants will vote for a new mayor

A straight swap: Merkel for López. (Image: Pieter Hupkes.)

It's a bit of an understatement to say that the outgoing Gustavo Petro administration endured a turbulent time. And depending on where you're coming from, he either did a good job in the face of 'dark forces' undermining him, or he was the dark force returning Bogotá to uglier times.

The truth, as is generally the case in such matters, more than likely lies somewhere in the middle.

He may have tried to put his personal stamp on some things, the biggest example being the controversial waste collection changes that briefly cost him his job, but the reality is no one person can either fix or break Bogotá, as much as some like to think.

Does he leave the city in a better place, however? In short, no. But it could be argued that he has laid, or at least tried to lay, the foundations for a brighter future. 

For one, a metro sounds exciting, if the inhabitants here could figure out how to use it in an orderly, respectful fashion.

Also, as regards the rubbish debacle, at least trying to implement a culture change in how Bogotanos deal with their waste was worthy of some merit. Considering the city he has been in charge of, he has just about earned a pass mark.

Queuing up to replace him, you have the typical Colombian mix of right, centre-right and phoney left. The thing is, completely unlike the national presidency, Bogotá has gone left for its mayor with relative regularity in recent times.

However, while they all came in with grand ideals and promised much, the height of what many seemed to achieve was to anger their fellow elites and further disillusion the poor (and enjoy the trappings of power at the same time).

With that in mind, the point could be made that the city should shun the so-called left this time out. 

Yet last year's presidential candidate from the leftist (and mired in controversy) Polo Democrático, Clara López, is the early leader in the polls. She does talk a good talk for sure; and maybe the city could do with a more permanent woman's touch at the top table. (Women have served in the office, López included, but just in holding roles.)

Plus, if she has the same command and leadership skills as a woman she somewhat resembles — German Chancellor Angela Merkel (sorry Angela) — Bogotá could be on to a winner. It's best not to hold your breath just yet, though.

So if the left is to be avoided, who does the city look to?

There is President Santos' cousin, Francisco ‘Pacho’ Santos, himself a former vice president of the country, from the divisive Centro Democrático party. Yet, by all accounts he's like the joke candidate — a rightist, Colombian version of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. (However, if he was to adopt the 'Go Pato' song, tweaked to 'Go Pacho', it could work wonders.)

Pardo (right): 'If only Bogotá was a bit more like Madrid.' (Photo: Facebook.)

One other man who could fit the bill is the joint Liberal and de la U parties’ selection, former government minister Rafael Pardo. Like López, he already held the office for a brief period; his month in charge came during the Petro ‘in-out’ saga last year. 

From what this blog can gather, he certainly seems to be popular among young professionals and the middle class in general. Although, if the polls are to be believed, he has a lot of ground to make up on the Polo Democrático candidate.

Also, whether Pardo will even be on the ballot paper is now in doubt with Enrique Peñalosa's introduction to the race. The former mayor and presidential candidate announced his candidature by saying that he wants a centre-right alliance picking the best-placed runner to prevent López taking office.

Really, though, considering what has gone before, with the odd exception, it might be time to parachute in an outsider to sort the place out. The aforementioned Merkel would bring some badly needed German organisation to things. And she'd surely relish the daunting task at hand.

One of the first things she could perhaps weigh up, Berlin-in-reverse style, is constructing a north-south dividing wall.

A two-city solution, at least for a while. I wonder which side of the divide the current mayoral candidates would opt for?
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For an idea of some (just some) of the challenges facing the next Bogotá mayor, this piece from a while back gives an idea: Bogotá's 'broken window'.

Venezuela: A necessary reappraisal

Back in 2009, on our first visit to the Ecuadorian capital Quito, we heeded the well-intentioned advice of some fellow travellers and opted to stay in the ‘safer’ north of the city – an area home to many backpacker hostels.

"Do you want to go ahead with this?"

What we encountered there, however, was anything but a feeling of security, reinforced by hostel and restaurant owners’ warnings not to venture out alone, if indeed at all, after dark. 

The fact that the majority of people we spoke to in the hostel we stayed in had been mugged on the streets right outside our lodgings obviously did nothing to ease concerns.

As a result, our stay in the city was short-lived; we were quite happy to leave in all honesty.

Two years later, in a less-planned stop in the city and being led by an Argentinean bus companion, we found ourselves camped up in a mediocre ‘hospedaje’ (hostel/hotel) in the historic centre of the city – dodgier territory than the north of the metropolis according to many.

This time, though, we experienced a completely different, far friendlier side to the place. Within hours after arriving (we got there late in the evening, in darkness, at that) we found ourselves drinking beers in a rough-and-ready house of some local. In another context, considering the area we were in, these guys would be seen as people to be avoided. 

This set the tone for what turned out to be a hugely enjoyable, trouble-free few days in Quito.

So while first impressions of a place or a person can at times be a good guide to the whole picture, this isn’t always the case. Very often such things are context and time-dependent.

Bearing that in mind, we made no secret of our negative introduction to Venezuela last year (see: http://bit.ly/OLR2Ev). 

In many ways, our experiences back then sat nicely with the accepted Western narrative that the place is dangerous, politically insecure and best avoided – even though we did enter the country rather excitedly and with an open mind.

Thus, this time it was with a bit of nervousness, tempered by stubbornness and a sense of some adventure, that we hit for Colombia’s eastern neighbour for a visa run. The rough plan on departing Bogotá was to get in and out of the place as quickly as possible.

Our anxiousness increased when, on arrival in the city of Cúcuta on the Colombian side of the border, the guys who exchanged our pesos for Venezuelan bolivares gave us plastic bags and told us to stow our cash in them and put them in our shoes for safety. (The biggest problem in the end was that this practice almost rendered the notes unusable from the damage inflicted by being wrapped up in our sweaty runners.)

Yet practically from the get-go, the coldness of the citizens and feelings of insecurity that prevailed during our first visit were replaced by very helpful, friendly people and a relaxed general atmosphere.

To the left ...

... and to the right

Yes, the physical signs of the recent, highly contentious general election (for a recap, see: http://bit.ly/Yy86zJ) narrowly and controversially won by the late Hugo Chávez’s successor, Nicolás Maduro, are there to be seen. 

But it’s not – at least openly and at ground level amongst the populace (at a political level and below the surface for some citizens we spoke to, deep divisions are apparent*) – a case of a dangerously divided country where opposing sides don’t mix.

What we found in the two places we stayed, firstly San Cristóbal and then Mérida**, were easy-going people (the small bar brawl we witnessed on our first night aside – sure a beer bottle being hurled at somebody is nothing unusual to us) going about their daily business.

Wherever we stay we like to be able to venture out at night feeling relatively safe, sampling a few beers and chatting to the locals in little ‘tienda’ bars. Thankfully, that was no problem this time, unlike Maracaibo last year. 

OK, our hotel in San Cristóbal did have a 10.30 pm curfew, but that was more an individual choice rather than a rule from what we could gather. Plus, considering the times we tend to retire at night nowadays, this lights-out policy wasn’t a big issue.

Of course, we did learn from our first experience in the country as regards the currency. 

So this time we had plenty of cash to convert into bolivares as opposed to going to ATMs where the value is at least four times less than on the street (Colombian pesos are fine to exchange along the border and that’s where you’ll get the best price). Hence, in most aspects, it’s much cheaper to get by compared to Colombia.

On that theme, practically every shop/restaurant displays the prices of its goods – prices that are trustworthy and accepted across the board from our observations. In other words, haggling isn’t really done or needed in the majority of places – the price is the price and it’s usually satisfactory. 

Now, we don’t mind haggling, but in many street stores in Colombia you can’t help but wonder if they are charging you a foreigners’ price no matter what you pay. The aversion here to publicly displaying prices always leaves you in a bit of doubt.

"Sorry, where would we find some chicken?"

You will still find what seems to be official Venezuelan suspicion towards foreigners – again in sharp contrast to the usual Colombian experience. 

On the internal bus journeys where the National Guard did ID checks, as foreign passport holders we were the only ones taken off and given a pretty decent interrogation with our bags thoroughly checked. With nothing to hide it wasn’t something that bothered us really.

That was, of course, taking for granted that the officers were genuine – in this case, they seemed to be. Considering, though, the pronouncements coming from the country’s leader as regards some foreigners’ intentions in Venezuela (mostly aimed at the USA, albeit), you can never rule out a bent military official doing something untoward in the name of patriotism.

If, however, at heart they are in the same mould as the vast majority of civilians we met in San Cristóbal and Mérida, such a scenario is unlikely. 

In any case, going by our adventures this time around, the rewards far outweigh the risks.

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* Some Venezuelan politicians take very seriously the idea of ‘fighting’ for your country, as this video shows: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKUVdw9mgeY

**Mérida is something of a hidden gem from what we experienced. We plan to bring you more on that next.

Venezuela: Deepening the divide?

It’s just over five months since we wrote that the time, perhaps, was right for a change of the guard in Venezuela.

That was, of course, ahead of the October elections when the-then incumbent president, the late Hugo Chávez, was facing his toughest democratic challenge for the country’s top job since he first took office in 1999.

Past & present: Cházez (l) & Maduro (from paraguay.com).

Despite leading a solid campaign which garnered widespread support – his 45% share of the votes testament to that – challenger Henrique Capriles fell short; Chávez retained his post with 54% support. 

Venezuela, especially the current administration’s key voter base of the lower/working classes, clearly said it wasn’t ready to say goodbye to ‘Socialism for the 21st Century’ at that time.

So as the country prepares once again to go the polls on 14 April – constitutionally necessary following Chávez’s death – is there any reason to think that the challenger can turn the tables in just six months?

Undeniably, the ruling party is weaker without its charismatic and hugely popular deceased leader calling the shots. You don’t lose a chief such as Chávez without this having some adverse effect. However, it might be too soon to see that cost just yet.

It’s difficult to improve on an 80% turnout, as was the case in October, but if there are new votes and voters to be found, they may go the way of president-in-charge and Chavez’s ‘anointed’ successor, Nicolás Maduro. While a dull figure compared to his predecessor – who wouldn’t be – he should still be in a position to benefit from Chávez’s popularity, with the former leader’s figure still shining bright for many. 

Indeed, early opinion polls suggest Maduro has a lead of up to 15%. If this was to be the actual result on polling day, it would be a bigger endorsement for the socialist government than that it received just months ago.

In such a politically divided country – you are either with the revolution or against it, there is very little room for those in the middle ground – it’s hard to see where Capriles can add to the support he gained last year. 

Focusing the campaign on the abuses of the Chávez administration – the more than questionable human rights record, an increase in homicides and an absence of general security, press and judicial interference, currency & economic problems – abuses highlighted by a number of non-governmental organisations including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, is one avenue of attack.

'Black gold' on the Colombian-Venezuelan border.

There is also the issue of Venezuela’s over-reliance on oil to keep the economy moving. In the short-to-medium term, this is fine, but, like the oil resources themselves, how sustainable is it?

Yet, for the thousands of people who have seen an unprecedented rise in their general standard of living and their access to education and health improve under the current socialist government, this approach in focusing on other policy areas, however justified, is unlikely to yield much electoral dividend.

What’s more, with a population – especially those in support of the revolution – seemingly convinced by the political elite that the nation, at any moment, could be attacked by ‘Western imperialists’, anti-US discourse continues to excite and impress many. 

Thus, the them-versus-us mentality, which Capriles hopes to weaken should he get elected, has been promoted heavily by his opponent.

However, for any neutral observer, regardless of which side of the political spectrum you lie, Maduro’s inconsistent and lurid pronouncements in this regard in recent days have been nothing but playing to the gallery. 

From firstly claiming there was a CIA/Pentagon plan to assassinate his rival Capriles in order to cause chaos in the country, he flipped the next day to a story that the US was encouraging the opposition to withdraw from the elections. If the White House is planning something, it doesn’t seem to be very consistent if Maduro is to be believed.

Throwing all these factors together, it is difficult to see anything other than a relatively comfortable victory for the interim president.

Indeed, for the time being, for the general stability of the region, especially in relation to the border with Colombia, a Maduro victory might be for the best. 

If the socialist revolution was stopped in its tracks now, democratically, it’s unclear how the current administration and its supporters would react, especially so soon after Chávez’s death. A second defeat in six months for Capriles would no doubt leave him and his followers disillusioned, but a violent reaction to such an outcome is unlikely.

In terms of Colombian relations, with the ongoing, largely fragile peace talks continuing between President Juan Manuel Santos’s government and the left-wing guerrillas Farc, instability in Venezuela is the last thing that process needs.

Support: But is it enough for Capriles?

Yes, it’s widely accepted here that the Bolivarian Republic has supported the Farc rebels in terms of ammunition and security, but the fear is that if an unfavourable government for them was to be installed in Venezuela, it may have a negative influence on the peace negotiations.

That’s despite the fact that the majority of Colombians, arguably the most pro-USA Latin America country with a history of centre-right administrations, would find more favour, in general, with Capriles in power than Maduro.

Whatever the case, it appears the mantra from the current office-holders in Venezuela, that the country’s ‘Socialism for the 21st Century’ is bigger than one man, is set to be put to a stern test in the coming months and years. 

It may be more of the same after 14 April but perhaps with even deeper division.

*For another Venezuelan related article see 'Venezuela - South America's North Korea?' http://bit.ly/OLR2Ev