Coronavirus' collateral damage

A sure-fire way to ensure you get the blood up of a large section of readers is to start off a blog post quoting Donald J. Trump.

So here goes. The US president tweeted the other day about coronavirus and the measures being taken to control it that 'We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself.' 

Coronavirus: Things will never be the same again?

Of course, true to form, Trump's discourse since this 'Chinese virus' emerged has read like a dark comedy. He's gone from 'we have it under control' to 'it will be gone by April' to 'the US is in great shape to tackle it' to 'this is a pandemic and I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called one.' 

What ails you?

Nonetheless, he does have a point about the cure potentially becoming worse than the viral infection itself. 

In this regard, we're talking about the cure being self-isolation and strictly imposed countrywide lockdowns, the approach being taken by many states battling covid-19 right now. Basically, it's a degree or two less severe than the Chinese model of tackling "their" virus. 

The idea in the short-term is not to eradicate it completely (although if that did happen, great), it's to, as most are well aware by now, flatten the curve in terms of the rate of infection. In that way, the health systems of the many countries trying to deal with this crisis will be in a better position to cope. 

The nightmare scenario is hundreds of thousands of cases in a short period of time. Hospitals just wouldn't be able to cope with those in a critical condition. 

Of course, as experts readily admit, in countries that were slow to enforce self-isolation and social distancing, the majority of the population is likely to get infected. On the plus side, the majority of that number should make a full recovery. 

So, at this remove, we could end up with the same number of coronavirus-related deaths regardless of the measures taken. Even with the best medical care in optimum conditions, the sick and vulnerable who contract the virus might die. 

'The global death rate in the coming years could be lower due to coronavirus.'

To use an analogy from a history professor from my university days when talking about the demise of Britain's Liberal Party, World War One was the bus that gave it the knockout blow but the postmortem revealed it was in terminal decline in any case, on "borrowed time" so to put it. 

There is the possibility, once we get on top of this, that the global death rate in the coming years could be lower than would be normally expected, as coronavirus ended some people's lives a few years earlier than they would have departed the scene.

Death by association 

Thus, coming back to the "cure" currently being implemented, leaving aside the severe financial heartache and associated problems it will cause for millions of people across the globe, especially in developing countries such as here in Colombia, could it turn out that it ends up being responsible for a good number of deaths in its own right? Or, better put, coronavirus' collateral damage. 

With the panic and chaos being caused by these lockdowns, there's a fair chance that people who get struck down with other life-threatening conditions are either neglected or choose not to seek medical attention due to all the fear that abounds. Of course, this is going to be next to impossible to calculate. 

For the moment, we have to trust that the measures currently in place are the best option. We have no other choice. 

Nonetheless, from a Colombian perspective, if this 19-day lockdown we've entered proves successful in terms of keeping cases down, the hard-pressed masses will look for a prompt easing of restrictions. 

On the other hand, if it doesn't work, if cases skyrocket between now and 13 April, there's a fair chance those same people will ask what's the point? Why all this extra hardship for nothing? 

They might just decide that they have to carry on regardless. 

The next few weeks will tell a tale.   

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Colombia, to de la Calle!

OK, we may need to change our preference. While we still have plenty of respect for V.E. Blanco, the sad reality is, for, um, existential reasons he won't actually physically make it to Palacio de Nariño, Colombia's presidential palace.

That being so, you still have to admire his performance ahead of the presidential first-round vote on 27 May. He's doing better than four of the seven actual candidates in the race. Only Iván Duque, Gustavo Petro and Sergio Fajardo (just about) are more popular according to the opinion polls.

De la Calle: As his name suggests, he's right at home on the streets. (Picture from Facebook.)

To the left, to the right 

Yet, taking Dr Blanco out of things, who do we endorse for Colombia's top job? For many locals, it's either the rightist Duque, the candidate of former president, the divisive Álvaro Uribe, or former Bogotá mayor and once leftist guerrilla with the defunct M-19, Petro. 

The never-again-to-be-trusted opinion polls have Duque ahead, a man who has promised to make significant adjustments to the peace agreement outgoing President Juan Manuel Santos signed with the Farc.

In many ways, it would be interesting to see how Colombia would operate under a leftist president, something it has never really had. Now, how left Petro actually is, depends on who you listen to. He talks a somewhat leftist game in any case, yet he certainly doesn't dress like a man at one with the impoverished masses.

For sure, all candidates realise the need to address the vast inequality Colombia has and they have various ideas in this regard. Yet proposals on paper are one thing, putting them into practice, quite another. Needless to say, there's no simple solution.

Fajardo the fair

Notwithstanding that, considering Duque-Petro is seen as a battle of the extremes — "A hawkish Duque presidency will result in deepening political and social division, a Petro administration will see the country slide towards socialism and potentially cripple the economy" — more moderate Colombians are looking for the centre ground. On this front, former Medellín mayor and Antioquia department governor Fajardo appears to be the preferred candidate.

He's promising to be a "president of reconciliation", playing, in a way, to that concern that a win for either of the current leading candidates will dangerously divide the country.

Of course, he's not the only centrist candidate. However, the polls have him comfortably ahead of both Germán Vargas Lleras, who had a stint as vice president under Santos, and the Liberal party's Humberto de la Calle, whose last political role was government chief negotiator in the Farc peace talks.

That the two men had important posts in the Santos administration is no doubt working against them. The electorate is looking for change and both Vargas Lleras and de la Calle have been too close to the outgoing crowd.

De la Calle: The stopgap president?

Yet, the country could do worse than taking stock of things after a few rocky years. For one, there's been that aforementioned controversial peace agreement which ended up being rejected in a referendum yet its implementation went ahead anyway. 

We've also seemingly never-ending corruption scandals and the delicate issue of streams of Venezuelans continuing to enter the country as they escape the mess they have at home.

In such an environment, an experienced, largely respected pair of hands in the shape of Humberto de la Calle could be seen as a good compromise, interim choice.

At almost 72 years of age and with his moderate background, he’s not exactly in the same mould as a Putin or Uribe. A ‘president for life’ by whatever means possible he will not be.

He's unlikely to dramatically change things, for better or for worse. However, at a time when the tendency across the globe seems to be to run to the extremes, de la Calle offers Colombia a little breather from the madness, and maybe even a bit more.

Humberto de la Calle: Steady as she goes for four short years?

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