Conservative Colombia left in the cold — for now

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

So the last bastion of conservatism and right-wing populism in Latin America has fallen. Colombia has chosen a leftist president for the first time in its history.

A new dawn for Colombia? Gustavo Petro and Francia Marquéz celebrate their historic election win. (Photo from Facebook.)

The rains that fell incessantly on the capital city, Bogotá, as the results flooded in on Sunday 19 June were most likely viewed as cleansing waters from the heavens for supporters of now president-elect Gustavo Petro. Indeed, in a tweet, he did put the victory down to 'God and the citizens and their history (or story).'

New Colombia

For those who loathe the former rebel — and there are many in that category — the dreary weather must have felt like pathetic fallacy, heralding a decadent, possibly very unstable era.

In fairness, both Petro and the surprise-package challenger in this run-off contest, 77-year-old Rodolfo Hernández who ran on a strong anti-corruption ticket, were representing a change of sorts. Hernández — or the more affectionate Rodolfo as he goes by — was hardly mentioned as a serious contender a month or so out from the first election on 29 May.

His social media campaigning was Trumpesque, making particular use of TikTok. The plan for the former mayor of Bucaramanga appeared to be, 'don't give too much away and just say what many want to hear'. It nearly produced the hoped-for effect.

Petro, on the other hand, has been in the national political limelight for quite some time. Alongside his highly divisive guerilla involvement in the 1970s and '80s, he was elected to Colombia's lower house of Congress in 2002, became a senator in 2006 and won the Bogotá mayor's office in 2012. He also previously ran for president in 2010 and 2018.

'A taxi driver who voted for the winner told me it was a case of opting for the least-bad candidate. Or, to borrow from a saying in these parts, to avoid going from Guatemala to Guatepeor.'

This familiarity may have actually been a significant factor in getting Petro over the line this time. The loose-cannon nature of Rodolfo that displayed itself on numerous occasions worked to his rival's advantage.

As a far-from-euphoric taxi driver who voted for the winner told me, it was a case of opting for the least-bad candidate. Or, to borrow from a saying in these parts, to avoid going from Guatemala to Guatepeor — from bad to worse, basically.

Petrograd

The concerns of those against Petro are in relation to what is seen as his socialist agenda. 'He'll turn Colombia into another Venezuela', that's the common mantra.

A dramatic disruptor in the mould of Hugo Chávez, he is unlikely to be, however. Yes, he and, to an even greater extent, his vice president, the Afro-Colombian environmentalist and human-rights activist Francia Marquéz, represent something quite removed from those of the old Conservative/Liberal heritage who have dominated these offices before.

Yet, the idea that they'll tear down the existing state structures and construct an entirely new system seems somewhat farfetched.

The term, which begins on 07 August, is, after all, limited to four years with reelection constitutionally prohibited. What an administration with a potentially radical programme — and much to do with it — can achieve in such a timeframe in a rather legalistic country is open to debate.

Thus, paving the way for a successor will most likely be a high priority. The 'Petro Plan' is going to need more than four years to deal with the likes of deep-rooted inequality, to name just one of the country's many ills.

As outgoing President Iván Duque discovered in 2021 with his tax-reform proposals — a perennial problem here — opposition in Colombia can be fierce and bring together disparate sections of society.

Mentioning Duque, when he hands over the reins to Petro he'll have just turned 46. One gets the feeling, however, that he'll be happy to end his career in Colombian politics when he vacates Casa de Nariño, unlike his mentor, the president from 2002 to 2010, Álvaro Uribe.

Whatever lies in store for Duque, these next four years for Colombia are certainly set to be intriguing.

While many thought it would never happen, Petro's big moment has arrived. For sure, he'll face many obstacles as, it would appear, about half the country won't want him to succeed, some of whom wield considerable power in various influential spheres.

Yet, for the other half, he is the president they have been waiting for to make what they see as the necessary changes to finally improve their lot.

It's now time to deliver, Presidente Petro. Your enemies aren't willing to stay in the cold for long.
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Listen to Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast here.

Facebook: Wrong Way Corrigan — The Blog & IQuiz "The Bogotá Pub Quiz".

2021: Reasons to be fearful

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

New year, new hope. And after the stagnation that was 2020 for many — save for the comfortable, virtue-signalling folk who have seen their lot actually improve — there appears to be more of a focus than usual on the positives that lie in store for us over the next 12 months.

Uribe, mi presidente. (Image from Facebook.)

Nonetheless, positivity is one thing, reality another — we'll leave to one side the postmodernist view on what is real and what isn't, only to say that when you're dead, you're dead. So while we'll do our best to carry on regardless, here are some reasons to be less than optimistic that 2021 will be brighter than 2020.

Covid chaos

Let's start with the most obvious. Regardless of where you stand on the efficacy of lockdowns and the true severity of coronavirus (in a recent interview, the historian Niall Ferguson noted how in terms of lethality the disease isn't even in the top 25 of global pandemics humanity has suffered), the closedown-to-suppress-the-virus approach has been adopted by many countries.

For sure, with vaccines now on the scene, hopes are high in richer nations that they'll be able to get on top of the situation in the first six months of this year or so.

However, considering the way our decision-makers and much of the media have become completely engrossed in every detail of this virus and its modus operandi to the detriment of pretty much all other areas of life, those who hope that by this time next year we'll be in AC (After Coronavirus) times need a reality check.

'Closer to Colombia, strong rhetoric against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has the potential to morph into something more than mere words.'

What's more, emerging-market countries, such as here in Colombia, look set to be well behind the curve in any vaccine bounce. 

By going along with the richer nations' moment of crisis in their otherwise comfortable existence, in following the lead of said richer nations and neglecting other, arguably more serious problems, developing countries will be cast further adrift. Inequality will widen, not only between nations but within them as well.

One final covid "fear" is the continuation of Colombian President Iván Duque's cringeworthy, quite condescending evening TV addresses. Mercifully, they are easily avoidable. I'm clearly not the only one who has had enough. The owner of one of my panadería offices changes channel as soon as El Presidente comes on.

Biden bombs

Much of the world will breathe a sigh of relief when US President Donald J. Trump vacates the White House on 20 January. In his place comes a veteran establishment figure, a man who many view as a safe pair of hands, Democrat Joe Biden.

The thing is, after four years of a president who put America (the United States part of it, that is) first, who largely preferred isolationism rather than internationalism, a Biden administration will look to reassert Washington's influence on the global stage. How that manifests itself over the next few years will be fascinating to watch, from a safe distance that is, if one can be found.

OK, another flare-up in the Middle East doesn't exactly usher in Armageddon, but an outwardly bullish, confident China is sure to lay down the gauntlet to what it must perceive as a weak, disjointed rival.

Closer to Colombia, strong rhetoric against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — a China ally of sorts — has the potential to morph into something more than mere words. In fact, the centrist faction of the Democratic Party might see it as a way to show it's not being highjacked by the left, as well as adhering to its stated global clampdown on corruption.

In addition, "corrective" action against Caracas would do no harm at all in helping to boost support among certain Hispanic voters who loathe the socialist wing hovering in the USA's blue corner.

And attacking fellow human beings is more box office than fighting a microscopic, common enemy of mankind.

Uribe presente, es mi presidente

One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. So while large swathes of the Colombian electorate will be thrilled with the prospect of an Uribe running for the presidency next year, many will be filled with dread.

Reports in late 2020 suggested that Tomás Uribe, son of former president, the divisive Álvaro Uribe, was being sounded out by Centro Democrático officials to run for the country's top job.

By all accounts, it's a long shot — he's reputedly not keen — but if Colombia was to put an Uribe back in Casa de Nariño, it would open the door for old scores to be settled, à la US President George W. Bush finishing off some of his father George H.'s business.

In such a scenario, we may not need the US to instigate war with the neighbours to the east. The Uribes are coming for Chavismo in all its manifestations, abroad and at home.

Whatever transpires over the course of the next 12 months, it promises to be an exciting ride.
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Listen to Wrong Way's Colombia Cast podcast here.

Facebook: Wrong Way Corrigan — The Blog & IQuiz "The Bogotá Pub Quiz". 

Colombia, vote V.E. Blanco for real change

Oh, what exciting times we have in Colombia. Election fever is in the air. In early March we've the curtain-raiser, the congress 'deciders'. Then in May, the big one gets underway, the first round of the presidential contest. For the record, a second round won't be needed if one candidate takes more than 50 per cent of the vote, but that's unlikely.

As ever, wily Wrong Way has been keeping a close eye on proceedings. (Not to blow our own Trump-et here, but we did foresee Trump's victory, as well as signalling the strength of the 'no' vote in both the Colombian peace agreement plebiscite and Brexit.)

Voto En Blanco: Your only man!

A bit has changed since we looked at the early candidates in the running. Nonetheless, despite all the other movers and shakers, 'Poker Petro' and 'Pilsen Fajardo' are the ones to beat going by those never-again-to-be-trusted opinion polls.

Well, they lead the way if you discard a certain V.E. Blanco, Voto En Blanco. He — and rest assured it is a 'he', Colombia's not ready for a lady president just yet (sorry Marta Lucía) — is polling quite strongly, even topping some.

While many may be quick to dismiss him, thinking he's a bit of an enigma or worse still a fraud, there are solid reasons to get behind him (more so than the others we could say).
Here's why:

A president for all

Blanco ticks all the boxes you want him to. For those few Colombians in the loony left brigade, he is unashamedly 'Castrochavista'. There's no need for public denials as to the existence of this brand of socialism. Let's be honest, Venezuela is giving the left a bad name. Blanco's Colombia will make socialism sexy again. (It was sexy once, wasn't it?)

Conversely, Blanco can be as right-wing as they come, something that will please many Colombians. He can proudly wax lyrical about the great work the right-wing paramilitaries, paracos, have done and are doing, by any means possible, to ensure those aforementioned bearded lefties are kept down.

What's more, he won't have anyone snooping around asking awkward questions. 'Firm hand, big heart', or something along those lines.

A man you can trust

OK, trust and politics don't make easy bedfellows whatsoever, but Blanco breaks the mould here. We can rest assured that when we put our 'X' after his name (we're going to try and sneak a vote or two in), he won't break his 'campaign' pledges.

How so? Well, it's simple really. He doesn't make any promises. There's no, let's say 'miércoles', or horse manure if you will, with Blanco. The rest of the candidates would do well to follow suit. 

Cheaper than changua 

The Colombian president's salary currently stands at US$250,000. That's a whopping $711,560,441 Colombian pesos. A bog-standard worker here would do well to get more than $10,000,000 a year, seventy times less than the top dog. In comparison, the salary for the president of neighbouring Ecuador is a more modest US$75,000, while in Venezuela, officially anyway, it's at just under US$25,000.

Putting Blanco in Casa de Nariño, the presidential palace, would cost nothing. Blanco can live off Bogotá's, um, fresh air. In fact, we could open up the palace to Colombia's myriad of homeless. Even let them have a little go at running the country. They couldn't do much worse than what's gone before, could they? 

It's decided so. Voto En Blanco for president!
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Colombia's presidential election: The candidates (and their Irish 'equivalents')

When it comes to politics, we Irish are as passionate as they come. Throw in an imminent election and our interest increases even more.

Back home, the European and local council elections will occupy some people's minds over the next few weeks. However, they're just not as 'sexy' as a general election, when we select the people to run (or not run, as the case often is) the state at national level. In this regard, Colombia's upcoming presidential ballot can fill that void for now.

So in a bid to help you know better those in the running for Colombia's top job, the following is a comparison between the candidates for Ireland's last presidential election in 2011 and those now doing likewise here.

Of course, the role of an Irish president is virtually ceremonial, with our prime minister more comparable to a Colombian president in terms of duties. But for character, background and in some ways affiliation similarities, this guide should be somewhat helpful.

10 more years?

Juan Manuel Santos – Michael D. Higgins

This may seem a strange match up. Higgins of the left and eventual winner of the Irish contest with the centrist/centre-right (as far left as presidents go here, really) Colombian incumbent now seeking re-election.

Michael D; least bad.

However, in the Irish case, after a fairly
tumultuous campaign for a presidential election, voters sided with Higgins as what could be seen as a 'safest pair of hands, not as controversial' kind of mentality. In less than glowing terms about Santos, the phrase 'best of a bad bunch' is one you'll regularly hear from many Colombians.

A problem area for El Presidente leading up to the 25 May poll is his decision not to intervene in the controversial dismissal of the now former Bogotá mayor Gustavo Petro, which could see some centre-left minded voters desert him. On the other side, the peace talks he has initiated with the Farc guerillas haven't gone down too well with some centre-right leaning Colombians.*

Opinion polls suggest he should still pull through – but it's unlikely he'll get 50 per cent or more of the votes to prevent a run-off election with his nearest challenger.

Peñalosa: Freewheeling.

Enrique Peñalosa Londoño – Seán Gallagher

While Peñalosa has much more of a political pedigree — he was a congressman in the early 1990s and mayor of Bogotá from 1998-2001 — than the entrepreneurial Gallagher, the link here comes from past associations with tainted (tainted for some that is) characters.

Gallagher: Toxic links.

Gallagher looked a shoo-in for the Irish presidency until accusations of dodgy financial dealings, linked with the once almighty but at the time (and still for many) pretty toxic Fianna Fáil party, dogged and eventually scuppered his campaign.

For Peñalosa, having previous ties with divisive former president and very much right-of-centre Álvaro Uribe could work against him. However, in a country such as Colombia where the left has traditionally been kept (often brutally) silent when it comes to having a say in elections, the Uribe link may not be as telling as you might think.

Indeed, that Peñalosa is running on a Green Party ticket could see him take a little bit more from the left than he might have done in another context.

López: Reawakening Colombia's left?

Clara López – David Norris & Martin McGuinness

As much as the Irish electorate might like to see itself as progressive and open-minded, the fact that David Norris is gay sat uncomfortably for many.

Norris (top) & 'missile' McGuinness.

'A nice guy, but you can't have a homosexual for president' was the general feeling, even if few admitted it publicly.

The above pretty much holds true in Colombia too, yet your prospects are probably a little worse being a leftist politician.
We're barely into double digits in terms of years passed since those from the democratic left were regularly, systematically even, gunned down due to their political persuasion.

Basically for those who held, and continue to hold, the purse strings and their supporters, left meant – and still means for some – guerilla, regardless of the actual truth. And being associated with guerillas while seeking high office in a country trying to put a deadly past behind it doesn't fit well with most franchised citizens – just ask Martin McGuinness.

Yes, things aren't as obviously bloody as they once were in Colombia and it's fair to say Ms López probably never held a gun in her hand in her life.

However, 'left' is still a dirty word for much of the electorate in these parts. With that, Ms López is in a battle she simply cannot win. Though, like many in her position before, she'll put up a good fight.

Zuluaga: Who?

Óscar Ívan Zuluaga – Gay Mitchell

Traditionalists with a powerful, popular party behind them. But dull and uninspiring. That pretty much sums up things here.

Gays, lots of Gays.

Mitchell's campaign never really got off the ground; largely because he just couldn't connect with voters.

For Zuluaga, the popular joke among the Colombian press speaks volumes:
Each time he arrives home the security guards at his apartment complex ask who he is, such is his dangerously low profile.

Running for the Centro Democrático (Democratic Centre) party and thus being in the shadow of the aforementioned former president Álvaro Uribe is both a hindrance and a help. It's a hindrance in that it's difficult for him to cut his own niche, be his own man. On the plus side, the Uribe link will land him plenty of votes from the multitude of right-leaning Colombians, ones he may not have got on his own standing.

For that reason, he can't be discounted as easily as Gay Mitchell was.

Well, if the T-shirt fits, Marta?

Also-rans: Dana (top) & Mary Davis.

Marta Lucía Ramírez – Dana Rosemary Scallon & Mary Davis

A case of the also-rans.

Representing the Conservative Party (aren't they all Conservative, bar López?) Ms Lucía Ramírez's presence might have the effect of taking some votes off Santos and Zuluaga.

Hence, she may have more of an influence than either Rosemary Scallon or Davis had on the Irish contest. But she certainly won't be making Casa de Nariño her home for the next four years.

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*For a background article on the peace talks, see Colombia's path to peace?