Conservative Colombia left in the cold — for now

@wwaycorrigan

[Listen to an audio version of this blog entry here.]

So the last bastion of conservatism and right-wing populism in Latin America has fallen. Colombia has chosen a leftist president for the first time in its history.

A new dawn for Colombia? Gustavo Petro and Francia Marquéz celebrate their historic election win. (Photo from Facebook.)

The rains that fell incessantly on the capital city, Bogotá, as the results flooded in on Sunday 19 June were most likely viewed as cleansing waters from the heavens for supporters of now president-elect Gustavo Petro. Indeed, in a tweet, he did put the victory down to 'God and the citizens and their history (or story).'

New Colombia

For those who loathe the former rebel — and there are many in that category — the dreary weather must have felt like pathetic fallacy, heralding a decadent, possibly very unstable era.

In fairness, both Petro and the surprise-package challenger in this run-off contest, 77-year-old Rodolfo Hernández who ran on a strong anti-corruption ticket, were representing a change of sorts. Hernández — or the more affectionate Rodolfo as he goes by — was hardly mentioned as a serious contender a month or so out from the first election on 29 May.

His social media campaigning was Trumpesque, making particular use of TikTok. The plan for the former mayor of Bucaramanga appeared to be, 'don't give too much away and just say what many want to hear'. It nearly produced the hoped-for effect.

Petro, on the other hand, has been in the national political limelight for quite some time. Alongside his highly divisive guerilla involvement in the 1970s and '80s, he was elected to Colombia's lower house of Congress in 2002, became a senator in 2006 and won the Bogotá mayor's office in 2012. He also previously ran for president in 2010 and 2018.

'A taxi driver who voted for the winner told me it was a case of opting for the least-bad candidate. Or, to borrow from a saying in these parts, to avoid going from Guatemala to Guatepeor.'

This familiarity may have actually been a significant factor in getting Petro over the line this time. The loose-cannon nature of Rodolfo that displayed itself on numerous occasions worked to his rival's advantage.

As a far-from-euphoric taxi driver who voted for the winner told me, it was a case of opting for the least-bad candidate. Or, to borrow from a saying in these parts, to avoid going from Guatemala to Guatepeor — from bad to worse, basically.

Petrograd

The concerns of those against Petro are in relation to what is seen as his socialist agenda. 'He'll turn Colombia into another Venezuela', that's the common mantra.

A dramatic disruptor in the mould of Hugo Chávez, he is unlikely to be, however. Yes, he and, to an even greater extent, his vice president, the Afro-Colombian environmentalist and human-rights activist Francia Marquéz, represent something quite removed from those of the old Conservative/Liberal heritage who have dominated these offices before.

Yet, the idea that they'll tear down the existing state structures and construct an entirely new system seems somewhat farfetched.

The term, which begins on 07 August, is, after all, limited to four years with reelection constitutionally prohibited. What an administration with a potentially radical programme — and much to do with it — can achieve in such a timeframe in a rather legalistic country is open to debate.

Thus, paving the way for a successor will most likely be a high priority. The 'Petro Plan' is going to need more than four years to deal with the likes of deep-rooted inequality, to name just one of the country's many ills.

As outgoing President Iván Duque discovered in 2021 with his tax-reform proposals — a perennial problem here — opposition in Colombia can be fierce and bring together disparate sections of society.

Mentioning Duque, when he hands over the reins to Petro he'll have just turned 46. One gets the feeling, however, that he'll be happy to end his career in Colombian politics when he vacates Casa de Nariño, unlike his mentor, the president from 2002 to 2010, Álvaro Uribe.

Whatever lies in store for Duque, these next four years for Colombia are certainly set to be intriguing.

While many thought it would never happen, Petro's big moment has arrived. For sure, he'll face many obstacles as, it would appear, about half the country won't want him to succeed, some of whom wield considerable power in various influential spheres.

Yet, for the other half, he is the president they have been waiting for to make what they see as the necessary changes to finally improve their lot.

It's now time to deliver, Presidente Petro. Your enemies aren't willing to stay in the cold for long.
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Colombia's Venezuelans

In a similar fashion to our Bogotá 'bull' report a few weeks back, the following is the original script of our latest report for RTÉ's World Report, this time on the growing number of Venezuelans entering and staying in Colombia. You can listen to the report here (from 20' 55'', edited for time reasons) and follow the script below:

Most of the traffic is coming into Colombia these days, not the other way around.

'We don't have to go too far back in history to find a time when some Colombians found refuge in neighbouring Venezuela, to escape the terrible bloodshed and uncertainty back home. 

Politically speaking, before Hugo Chávez's Socialism for the 21st century took hold in Venezuela, the two countries were quite similar. The difference was Colombia was seen as a violent backwater best avoided, while Venezuela, from a Western, capitalist perspective in any case, was a model for the rest of Latin America to follow.

It's not stretching it to say that now we have the reverse situation: Colombia's external image seems to get brighter by the day while Venezuela's plummets.

In Venezuela's pre-socialist days, so it is said, 'la Colombiana' was the one who came to clean the house of the well-off, the one who worked in the bakeries and bars, the work many locals felt was beneath them. 

Now it's the Venezuelans — men, women and children — who are crossing the border in their thousands to work in whatever they can find in Colombia. Chronic food and medical shortages, hyper-inflation and safety concerns, alongside a seemingly incompetent government to deal with these issues are what have them leaving in droves.

How many have actually relocated here is difficult to measure exactly. This is simply because on a daily basis the toing and froing of Venezuelans into Colombia, and vice versa, all along the over 2000 kilometre-long land border has been constant and not tightly regulated. [This is when the border hasn't been closed by order of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro that is, as has happened on occasions over the last couple of years.]

The United Nations Refugee Agency in Bogotá does state that there has been "a notable increase of Venezuelan nationals coming to and remaining in Colombia." 

From an official viewpoint, however, it acknowledges the figures it works off from Colombian immigration are not terribly accurate and more than likely underestimate the volume.

Alongside the informal, unregistered crossings, the agency points to the lack of data on Venezuelan nationals remaining in Colombia as well as the fact that official asylum claims are quite low as this process in Colombia is somewhat cumbersome.

Notwithstanding the difficulties of getting an accurate figure, Daniel Pages of the Association of Venezuelans in Colombia estimates that between legals and illegals there are over 1.2 million of his countrymen currently in Colombia. 

The association itself, set up five years ago to provide assistance for Venezuelans looking to live and work legally in Colombia, has now over 15,000 people on its books.

Alongside the estimated numbers, Colombians themselves are quick to tell you that the Venezuelan accent is being heard much more of late than had been the case just a couple of years ago. And we're not talking here about illegal border intrusions into Colombia by Venezuelan military personnel, which caused a stir recently, damaging further official relations between the two republics.

No, this isn't just temporary border-hopping; Venezuelans are travelling as far into Colombia as Bogotá to set up shop.

A visit to any of the capital's bog-standard bread shops or restaurants and it's a safe bet that there'll be at least one Venezuelan working there.

The problem, as some locals see it, is that these unregistered foreign workers are taking potential jobs from the many hard-pressed Colombians in need of employment. 

As store owner Laura Lancheros puts it: "Many of these unregistered Venezuelans coming here are willing to work for anything, so for some employers they're a good option because there's no real paperwork involved in hiring them."

Indeed, in Bogotá for one, there appears to be little sympathy for the plight of their neighbours. A lot of this stems from the Venezuelan government's decision to remove thousands of Colombian nationals from the country a couple of years back, the deported accused of being involved in paramilitary activities and other illegalities. 

President Maduro's almost daily jibes at Colombia also don't help, where he regularly accuses it as the source of many of his own country's problems.

Be that as it may, for the Venezuelans now living and working in Colombia, many are quick to distance themselves from what their government says and does.

What’s more, as 25-year-old Bogotá bread shop employee Angie Salcedo, who arrived here from her native eastern Venezuela earlier this year, points out: "Some Colombians would do well to remember the past. Venezuela was always welcoming to foreigners, but now that we're in trouble, we're not getting the same treatment from others. Not everybody is received with open arms."

A young, university-educated woman, Angie's story is typical of the Venezuelans flocking to Colombia: here illegally, engaged in unskilled work for barely the minimum wage.

Angie's co-worker, 22-year-old Yorkely Casanova, sees Colombia as just a temporary stopover. Like other Venezuelans, she has her eyes set on Chile as the process to become a legal worker there is shorter, more straightforward and less expensive than Colombia.

For the moment she, along with her husband, are working 12-hour plus days for no more than 10 US dollars a day to save money for that journey further south.

It's far from ideal, but as Yorkely sadly notes, it's better than being in Venezuela right now.'
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Venezuela: Deepening the divide?

It’s just over five months since we wrote that the time, perhaps, was right for a change of the guard in Venezuela.

That was, of course, ahead of the October elections when the-then incumbent president, the late Hugo Chávez, was facing his toughest democratic challenge for the country’s top job since he first took office in 1999.

Past & present: Cházez (l) & Maduro (from paraguay.com).

Despite leading a solid campaign which garnered widespread support – his 45% share of the votes testament to that – challenger Henrique Capriles fell short; Chávez retained his post with 54% support. 

Venezuela, especially the current administration’s key voter base of the lower/working classes, clearly said it wasn’t ready to say goodbye to ‘Socialism for the 21st Century’ at that time.

So as the country prepares once again to go the polls on 14 April – constitutionally necessary following Chávez’s death – is there any reason to think that the challenger can turn the tables in just six months?

Undeniably, the ruling party is weaker without its charismatic and hugely popular deceased leader calling the shots. You don’t lose a chief such as Chávez without this having some adverse effect. However, it might be too soon to see that cost just yet.

It’s difficult to improve on an 80% turnout, as was the case in October, but if there are new votes and voters to be found, they may go the way of president-in-charge and Chavez’s ‘anointed’ successor, Nicolás Maduro. While a dull figure compared to his predecessor – who wouldn’t be – he should still be in a position to benefit from Chávez’s popularity, with the former leader’s figure still shining bright for many. 

Indeed, early opinion polls suggest Maduro has a lead of up to 15%. If this was to be the actual result on polling day, it would be a bigger endorsement for the socialist government than that it received just months ago.

In such a politically divided country – you are either with the revolution or against it, there is very little room for those in the middle ground – it’s hard to see where Capriles can add to the support he gained last year. 

Focusing the campaign on the abuses of the Chávez administration – the more than questionable human rights record, an increase in homicides and an absence of general security, press and judicial interference, currency & economic problems – abuses highlighted by a number of non-governmental organisations including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, is one avenue of attack.

'Black gold' on the Colombian-Venezuelan border.

There is also the issue of Venezuela’s over-reliance on oil to keep the economy moving. In the short-to-medium term, this is fine, but, like the oil resources themselves, how sustainable is it?

Yet, for the thousands of people who have seen an unprecedented rise in their general standard of living and their access to education and health improve under the current socialist government, this approach in focusing on other policy areas, however justified, is unlikely to yield much electoral dividend.

What’s more, with a population – especially those in support of the revolution – seemingly convinced by the political elite that the nation, at any moment, could be attacked by ‘Western imperialists’, anti-US discourse continues to excite and impress many. 

Thus, the them-versus-us mentality, which Capriles hopes to weaken should he get elected, has been promoted heavily by his opponent.

However, for any neutral observer, regardless of which side of the political spectrum you lie, Maduro’s inconsistent and lurid pronouncements in this regard in recent days have been nothing but playing to the gallery. 

From firstly claiming there was a CIA/Pentagon plan to assassinate his rival Capriles in order to cause chaos in the country, he flipped the next day to a story that the US was encouraging the opposition to withdraw from the elections. If the White House is planning something, it doesn’t seem to be very consistent if Maduro is to be believed.

Throwing all these factors together, it is difficult to see anything other than a relatively comfortable victory for the interim president.

Indeed, for the time being, for the general stability of the region, especially in relation to the border with Colombia, a Maduro victory might be for the best. 

If the socialist revolution was stopped in its tracks now, democratically, it’s unclear how the current administration and its supporters would react, especially so soon after Chávez’s death. A second defeat in six months for Capriles would no doubt leave him and his followers disillusioned, but a violent reaction to such an outcome is unlikely.

In terms of Colombian relations, with the ongoing, largely fragile peace talks continuing between President Juan Manuel Santos’s government and the left-wing guerrillas Farc, instability in Venezuela is the last thing that process needs.

Support: But is it enough for Capriles?

Yes, it’s widely accepted here that the Bolivarian Republic has supported the Farc rebels in terms of ammunition and security, but the fear is that if an unfavourable government for them was to be installed in Venezuela, it may have a negative influence on the peace negotiations.

That’s despite the fact that the majority of Colombians, arguably the most pro-USA Latin America country with a history of centre-right administrations, would find more favour, in general, with Capriles in power than Maduro.

Whatever the case, it appears the mantra from the current office-holders in Venezuela, that the country’s ‘Socialism for the 21st Century’ is bigger than one man, is set to be put to a stern test in the coming months and years. 

It may be more of the same after 14 April but perhaps with even deeper division.

*For another Venezuelan related article see 'Venezuela - South America's North Korea?' http://bit.ly/OLR2Ev